Baseball is a game of sequencing. Offenses need to string together hits and walks to convert baserunners into runs. Batteries must sequence pitches to set up batters for optimal results. And handicappers like us have to get ahead of angles to capitalize on attackable prices. I am taking my lumps…
The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-22-2021 says adios to the St. Louis Cardinals. After my fourth loss in as many times featuring that club this season, I received an executive order to stay away from any Cardinals games from here on out. It's simple - the Redbirds and I are…
Despite the best-laid plans, Washington swung for the fences and kept falling short Sunday afternoon. That matchup against a lefty who is prone to getting knocked around was juicy but the results did not manifest. I'll be completely honest and say that was a very disappointing outcome. Realistically, though, not…
The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-18-2021 comes to you fresh off of what turned out to be a near push on Saturday. Oh, my Cincinnati Reds - they sure looked like the 2020 version yesterday afternoon. Granted, tons of credit goes to Triston McKenzie for working his way out of…
Let's just say that the St. Louis Cardinals and I are not seeing eye to eye these days. At least the New York Mets had my back Wednesday as David Peterson pitched a gem. Then Ronald Acuna helped us get over the mark to seal up a much-needed winning day…
After Tuesday's quick in-and-out solo shot on the Nationals/Cardinals first 5 inning position, it's time to stretch out the playbook in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-14-2021. And that play was quick because the Cardinals pounded Strasburg for 4 runs in the 3rd and a ton more in the 5th.…
After a weekend on the road and Monday back in the office, the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-13-2021 is back! I broadened Sunday's card to four plays, but the Tigers fell just short of delivering a nice payday. Looks like they were the play last night though. I need to…
I’ve cranked out three straight Ls in my featured handicaps. That's pretty disappointing, especially with a couple wagers getting cancelled recently. But it’s Day 11 of the 2021 MLB season and I’ve been waiting for these days a long time. Now it’s time to roll with the MLB Morning Breakdown…
What a fiasco yesterday's betting card was. Unfortunately, our featured handicap position on the Angels was cancelled twice for pitching changes. My BetCrushers partner Yanni took the bait and went over 6 runs - and those guys got the money. Not I, but that's on me for going with listed…
The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-9-2021 is back after a travel day (for me, not the MLB). Chicago's "light" lineup in Seattle Wednesday afternoon left a lot to be desired for our plays behind them. Though their timely runs in the 5th inning salvaged one of three wagers in our…
We asked for a strong performance from Marcus Stroman yesterday and he delivered. Stroman plus a timely bomb from Dominic Smith enabled the Mets to take care of our first 5 inning wager and cash Tuesday's solo shot. Three Ws in a row is nice, but the MLB Morning Breakdown…
The new week began with two plays on Monday that banked on offensive eruptions from the Blue Jays and White Sox. Well, that's what we got. Some confidence was restored when my doubts in Mike Foltynewicz' rebound from a brutal season came true, leading to Toronto surpassing their team total…
For the second time this season, my expectations for a Royals starter were way too high compared to what took place on the field. Brady Singer just did not have the stuff I called for and my solo shot of the day backing the Royals went up in flames. But…
I took just one position on yesterday's big slate - technically two half-unit bets on the Blue Jays team totals - and it flat out failed to get there. Close, but no cigar. Yet 3 runs is absolutely less than 4, so we move onto the MLB Morning Breakdown for…
No complaints here with Day 2 of the MLB season. My Cincinnati Reds didn't lose (they had the day off) and we managed to crank out a nice return on our pair of plays. Pablo Lopez and Ryan Yarbrough put on a pitching clinic in south Florida, delivering a 0-0…
Well, sometimes it's better to be lucky than right. And my first wager of the 2021 MLB season was a -150 play behind Brad Keller and the Royals - an amount of juice that I absolutely hate to lay. Bottom line: my read on Keller was way off the mark,…
After what seems like an eternity to us baseball fans, Opening Day 2021 is finally here! It's been five months since the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrated their franchise's seventh World Series Championship and now all 30 teams start fresh. And the head honchos at MLB have given us exactly what…
The Braves' punctuated the 2020 season with their third straight and 15th overall NL East title. Atlanta's impressive young nucleus gives the impression of a club building their way towards a dynasty like that of the late 1990's. On the flip side, the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals was…
A dramatic changing of the AL East guard was punctuated by Boston trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. While the Red Sox sunk to the depths of the division, Tampa Bay rose to the top with stingy pitching and defense. The Rays' grindy approach to the modern game earned them…
It's a story that only made sense in the year 2020. While the Cardinals were stuck at home due to COVID-related issues, the Chicago Cubs grew an early lead in the NL Central. They slogged their way to the division title as St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee finished no better…
Another NL West title for the Dodgers. This time, however, Los Angeles was not denied the franchise's seventh World Series Championship. Six months earlier, there was plenty of optimism to go around the division. Arizona was positioned to build on a gritty 2019 season while San Diego looked the part…
The AL West was front and center all throughout the last offseason. Texas was set to move into its new airplane hangar-esque stadium while the Angels scored prized free agent Anthony Rendon, joining forces with all-world player Mike Trout. Even so, all of this mundane activity was overshadowed by Houston's…
The AL Central proved to be very competitive down the stretch in the truncated 2020 MLB season. Three legitimate playoff teams vied for the division - Minnesota, Chicago, and Cleveland - with just a single game separating them in the end. It took a 16-8 surge from the Twins to…
The need for sports is real as the United States deals with quarantines and work closures. Hell, even national leaders are calling for the return of sports like baseball to help improve morale. NASCAR rolled out its plan to resume their 2020 season this month. MLB followed that with another…
The 2019 American League West saw the Houston Astros make their second run at a World Series in three years. Oakland repeated their 2018 season with 97 wins and another loss in the Wild Card game. Below them, a trio of teams struggled to crack the .500 mark. The Angels…
Going into the 2019 season, expectations were high in the NL East, where all but one team had season win totals of 85 or higher. Even more impressively, three of those four actually exceeded their totals. Your World Series Champions, the Washington Nationals, cleared their total with a second-half surge…
Goldilocks would have loved the 2019 AL East: two teams pushed their way to the top, two sunk to the bottom, and one settled in the middle. But she's the only one who'd call Boston "just right" last year, as they failed to repeat their 2019 glory. Baltimore and Toronto…
Last year's NL Central crown race was one of the tightest in the league. My eyes, as a holder of a late-season plus-money divisional futures ticket on the Cardinals, were glued to Milwaukee's September charge. The Brew Crew made things way too interesting for my taste, even without 2018 NL…
The Minnesota Twins owned the AL Central in 2019. They took the division lead on April 20th and ran away with it by smashing offensive records and by getting unexpected production out of starting pitchers. It looked like a runaway until the Indians picked themselves up off the mat and…
In 2019, the Los Angeles Dodgers were crowned kings of the National League West for the seventh year in a row. Given this juggernaut, few people expected the division to be competitive despite San Diego making an offseason splash by signing monster free agent Manny Machado. Regardless, consensus gave Colorado…
The beauty - and sometimes frustration - of handicapping is that there is no universal method or "secret code" that holds the answer. Fortunately, Major League Baseball is blessed with a cult following of statistical-oriented minds that compile and make available volumes of data for us to use. You can…
Being overly selective this time of year has its pros and cons. On the positive side, you can slim down the MLB card by eliminating huge favorites and teams who've are significantly underperforming. The major detraction is that there are days where I don't make any plays. Successful sports betting…
Monday's break from betting the MLB was a good example of "If the glove don't fit, you must"... OK, maybe that's not the most appropriate analogy. There's no shame in sitting on the sidelines when the games don't show me much. It's that time of year and the Monday card…
No task seems too tall when a team is in a groove. Of course, it doesn't hurt to have Christian Yelich's spot in the lineup come up when needed the most. Yelich was clutch against Kimbrel in the 10th and Hiura sealed the deal with a 2-run bomb of his…
The NL Central is arguably one of the more disappointing divisions in MLB this season. Division-leader St. Louis is 9 games above .500 with Chicago and Milwaukee right on their heels. The Cardinals have been propelled to the top via a scorching hot run and now the Cubs and Brewers…
Miles Mikolas gave up the 3 runs that was expected of him in the Thursday afternoon divisional showdown. Fortunately for us Cardinals backers, he did so over 6 solid innings and the bullpen was stout enough to hold the 6-3 margin. Pittsburgh's Musgrove lived up to what appeared to be…
After successfully backing the Cardinals Tuesday, I laid low on the MLB card for a number of reasons. Generally speaking, the card quality peaks in June and then we start seeing too many starters that are tough to back or too expensive to fade. There are still gems in the…
Buying low on the Texas Rangers last night was the result of ill-placed confidence in them righting the ship against a Mariners club that has essentially given up on the season. Marco Gonzales escaped a 2nd inning disaster with a 0-2 deficit and never looked back. Sampson got little support…
The dog days of summer usher a lot of new faces to the MLB diamond, especially on the pitcher's mound. This means plenty of matchups that have lopsided lines and/or unproven pitchers at the major league level. All of this equates to a lot of passing on my part, including…
A combination of family matters and a lack of a convincing bet-on game led to a "day off" from wagering the MLB. I had an opportunity to run through Saturday's slate late on Friday from the hotel and circled one game that looked like a viable opportunity. Arizona and Atlanta…
Atlanta/Milwaukee was one hell of a game Wednesday. An early mistake by Keuchel was costly, though the Atlanta offense made sure their club was never out of the game. The Brewers had the "big inning(s)" that I figured would be the difference maker and proved to be the difference in…
I sat Tuesday out from MLB wagering as the betting slate showed me nothing appetizing to bite on. Instead, I gave a quick overview of a couple key matchups I am exploring for this weekend's NASCAR Cup Foxwoods Casino 301 at New Hampshire. Our team has also been grinding on…
BetCrushers 7/15/2019 MLB recap and NASCAR New Hampshire Foxwoods Casino 301 matchup preview.
San Francisco's offense is a bit of a head scratcher. When you put it in the context of a full MLB season, hot or cold streaks for teams, offenses, pitchers, etc. are just a routine part of the 162-game grind. Tyler Beede did a phenomenal job of scratching out nearly…
When it comes to the starting pitchers in last night's Reds/Rockies game, I was completely wrong. Roark got hammered for 13 hits, 3 homers, and 7 runs. Freshly-recalled Kyle Freeland did not give up a single home run or a walk. Walks and home runs needed to be the Reds'…
Speaking of which, it's certainly good to be back on the MLB grind. It doesn't hurt when the Red Sox have your back and smack down the Dodgers 8-1. Rodriguez exceeded our high expectations with only 1 earned run and 10 strikeouts against the potent LA lineup. Maeda was as…
After an extended time overseas, it's definitely good to be back. Baseball is back with a full slate, NFL preparations are heating up, and all is well in the handicapping world for the BetCrushers team. Before the All-Star Break, we were sharpening our approaches to live betting the MLB...and with…
Oof. Yesterday's faith in Julio Teheran and Merrill Kelly was poorly placed. They were both in good current form as I detailed yesterday. Unfortunately, both of these starters were anything but good. And their offenses did little to bail them out. deGrom was lights out in his complete game, while…
As you can see from the header post, it's deja vu all over again. After last night's late-inning blowout of the Mets, the price to back Atlanta continues to balloon as they continue their hot streak. Oh wait, they're the dog tonight? More on that later. Atlanta's convincing 12-3 win…
If you laid the juice on the Dodgers last night, you cashed. If you're a sucker like me and played the run line with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, then you're out of luck. The Dodgers had plenty of opportunities to do more damage against Quintana but did not convert.…
There was a lot of painful action in the MLB on Saturday, at least in the games that I had my eye on. Nick Senzel fouled one off of his face, JT Realmuto caught a foul ball in the junk, and Sean Newcomb took a scorched liner to the side…
I have to admit that when Lucas Giolito gave up a 1st inning solo shot to Luke Voit last night, my first thought was how Giolito has truly been due for a dud outing. Then CC Sabathia took the mound and my impression of the game quickly changed back to…
My BetCrushers boys were giving me flack for hitting the links before cranking out an article first thing this morning. To my credit, I was up and handicapping before the morning scramble. I was fresh off a refreshing Thursday evening in which I had nothing booked, especially after the Braves…
Some days it just ain't in the cards. Wednesday was one of those days for my handicapping, most notably in Colorado where the Rockies were dominated by the Cubs. Senzatela laid one of his eggs and Hamels pulled an impressive outing out of the jaws of a 1st inning bases-loaded…
What are the odds? Tuesday's 1-1 split makes it the fourth straight day with such a record. I scratched out +0.09 units on the split, lifting this week to 2-2 for +1.35 units. Arizona disappointed me though their offense battled hard, missing a pair of late-game 3-run homers by a…
Monday's 1-1 split marked the third straight day with such a record. However, yesterday's split earned +1.26 units because of Texas' big +226 underdog win in 11 innings. As ho-hum as last week ended, this one began with a bang. As noted yesterday, Mike Minor was poised to keep the…
Sunday's 1-1 split was a fitting end to a ho-hum week 11 in the MLB. The week finishes up with a 5-6 record that cost me 0.98 units. Nothing too out of whack, but I am without a doubt well behind my season-long pace. Since I will be in Europe…
Saturday started strong with an Arizona shutout and ended with a disappointing display from the Rockies. Colorado had their opportunities but Steven Matz went deep into the pitch count and struck out 10 with his nasty curve and pinpoint fastballs. On the flip side, Zack Greinke squashed the Jays offense…
Although close doesn't pay, Friday's two plays damn near got there but fell short. It cost me 2.16 units and took the week down to 3-4 for -1.02 units though. Either way would have been a loss, but I avoided a Nationals bullpen meltdown by taking the first 5 inning…
I do all of my MLB handicapping early morning before heading to the office, so I often miss out on several games that are not on the board. I can be proactive at times when the starters are known and create a line range in which I would make a…
The Twins offense vs. Carlos Carrasco matchup was a big draw for a +118 underdog bet on Minnesota before Carrasco was scratched due to unfortunate medical concerns. When the game came back with Tyler Clippard as the Indians starter, the line flipped to Twins -120. After adjusting for the pitching…
When it comes to having a plan, yesterday's included a pair of plus-money games to keep an upward trend alive. Unfortunately, the Miami Marlins completely ran Chase Anderson out of his own building and pounded the Brewers 16-0. I had identified Anderson as the weak link in Tuesday's run line…
Wade LeBlanc damn well could have gone a full 9 innings if Seattle didn't use a starter last night. LeBlanc gave up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk over 8 great innings as the Mariners fell to the Astros 4-2. The damage was done in the 1st inning…
Last week's rough end bled into week 9, which started with a thud. Eventually it wrapped up with an 8-11 record and an unpleasant loss of 3.06 units. We roll into week 10 on a more positive note; the last three days brought in 4.55 units on a 6-2 record.…
Opportunity knocked Saturday, but the Reds could not open the door...in multiple situations. As noted in yesterday's article, Nats' pitcher Erick Fedde had been solid but was not expected to go past the 5th inning. He left after 4 innings, having run up 85 pitches with 6 hits and 3…
The Orioles proved to be an unlikely hero for me last night, amazingly winning both the F5 and full game underdog wagers against the Giants. A wacky 1st inning saw the Giants put up 5 in their half and the Orioles with 6 in the bottom. You could call it…
We all know the deal: three strikes and you're out. Yesterday started with an extra-innings slugfest between Arizona and Colorado that fell just short for the +127 road dog. The Rockies owned the D-backs in that 4-game series, in which my two wagers on Arizona lost by a single run…
When the boys in the AL West get together, you better buckle up because their games don't land smoothly! Sitting on Oakland and Texas tickets yesterday, I knew this going into those games and certainly got my money's worth! After a Cincinnati beatdown, a split on my AL West tickets…
A pair of one-run losses last night leads to a nasty -2.4 unit loss for Tuesday, and now makes three one-run losses in a row. We'll see about getting that turned around soon. A sloppy first inning by the Yankees spotted the Padres 4 runs, which was just enough for…
Due to a lack of cooperation from the Reds and Diamondbacks, we're off to a lackluster 0-2 start (-2.15 units) to week 9 in the MLB. Cincinnati was super sloppy in game one of their Memorial Day doubleheader with the Pirates. A balk, fielding errors, base running gaffs, and a…
Sunday wrapped up a down week with a 2-1 record that netted +1.00 units, despite going 6-8 for -2.11 in week 8. At week's end, the season tally stands at -0.49 units. Not where we want to be by any stretch of the imagination but a down April is being…
At least there's the Twins. Their 8-1 dismantling of the White Sox easily covered the run line and provided the lone W yesterday. Cincinnati gave it a good run as a +137 dog but fell short as the game got late. Rangers/Angels was a pitchers duel that went down to…
Friday's 2 plays were a...you guessed it: a split. 1-1 on the day (-0.04 units) moves the week to 3-4 for -0.95 units. The weak link was St. Louis. I tried to buck the Cardinals slump off a day of rest with the Braves coming into town after a 13-inning…
The Twins finally got their series sweep against the Angels yesterday after the game was delayed from Wednesday night. I implemented a -1 run line using a 50-50 split of the money line and traditional -1.5 run line. Turns out that it wasn't necessary as they launched 8 home runs…
Guess the outfield was a little on the soggy side last night for the Twins/Angels series finale. This cancelled one of my two plays, which is unfortunate because the other play (Diamondbacks/Padres) was a complete bust. Eric Lauer was painting the corners while Merrill Kelly was allergic to the strike…
So I made no progress on my run line bet approach research last night. And the way this week's work schedule looks, this project may end up taking place on my flight down to BetCrushers HQ Friday evening. What better way to spend a couple hours on a plane than…
A colossal bullpen failure compromised the Texas +120 run line play, but fans in the Metroplex still went home celebrating a Rangers 10-9 win. Despite being up 10-2 going into the 8th inning, this game was far from over with the Texas and Seattle bullpens in action. Seattle's 7 runs…
The rigorous schedule of a 50+ hour job collides with MLB handicapping sometimes, as it has early this Monday morning. Fortunately, the slate is extremely light as I write this article: only 6 games are up on the board (1 of which is at Wrigley). I planned to give an…
Chop 'em up again! Saturday's 2-2 split was par for the course this week, which moves to 7-7 for a profit of +1.16 units. Spoiler alert: I've got 2 tickets for Sunday's MLB action and I would not be surprised at all if I get another split. But we're playing…
Every handicapper and bettor has a particular approach and style. Whether it is the use of a system, access to great information, or a solid handicapping approach, consistent winners find a way to get it done. A guy like me makes 1-4 plays a day during the MLB season (typically…
Luis Castillo's wizardry was damn near thwarted by the 3rd base bag in the 1st inning last night. Fortunately, the unfortunate circumstances at the beginning of the game were returned as a favor via wild pitch in the bottom of the 5th. Cincy held on after a considerable rain delay…
Tuesday: my nemesis this MLB season. Fortunately, I played yesterday's slate about as good as I could have. My handicapping process led me to 4 sides that had promise but I was hesitant to overextend and potentially take another big hit. I sharpened the pencils, played 2 wagers, and left…
After triple-checking my handicapping on the Astros/Tigers game yesterday morning, I punched a single MLB ticket for the short Monday slate. The downside to the Astros +105 run line wager was the strong possibility that Matthew Boyd would shut the Houston offense down and the Tigers would do enough to…
Week 6 wrapped up Sunday with a thud (0-2, -2.05 units), but I won't complain after churning out another weekly profit. The 10-9 week had promise going into the weekend, yet I squeezed out a modest 1.20-unit win despite a disappointing finish. Getting some momentum rolling over the last few…
Handicapping bullpens can truly be a "playing the percentages" part of the game. Whether this is more evident in the MLB these days as compared to the past, I do not know and frankly don't have any interest in researching. Consistently good, consistently bad, or downright volatile relief units can…
The Rocky Mountain Hangover strikes again. San Francisco returned home yesterday after a series in Colorado only to get steamrolled 7-0 by Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds. This makes the Hangover a perfect 6-for-6 in 2019. It's truly difficult to split out where the Hangover impacts began and Castillo's…
Despite putting in work to handicap the short card, yesterday was damn near a day off with only one play: Yankees RL +115. The 3-1 Yankees win had most of the action take place in the last 2 innings, in which 3 of the 4 runs were scored. Leake and…
After an 0-fer on Tuesday, a 3-1 bounce back Wednesday was just what the doctor ordered. A 4-0 sweep would have been spectacular but I will happily take the +2.22 and get week 6 back to a respectable 5-6 for -0.70 units. No reason to run and hide from a…
Wednesday brings us a nice card of MLB action all day. After Tuesday's 0-5, I must say that there isn't too much buyer's remorse from those plays. The only truly regrettable wager was the one behind Dakota Hudson. I had reservations about backing him but liked the way the Cardinals…
Monday's pair of games reverses the 0-2 Sunday and brings in +2.13 units on a couple of short home dogs. As expected, we got a great pitchers' duel in San Diego that featured deGrom and Paddack, the latter of whom struck out 11 over 7.2 innings. The Mets' offense struggled…
A pair of losses to end week 5 is not what I was looking for, though it was not totally unexpected. Taking a shot on Toronto went about as well as the long shot play on the White Sox Saturday night: el busto! The Milwaukee run line loss was disappointing…
So much to say about the wackiness at Churchill Downs yesterday that we'll just leave unsaid... Saturday ended a small undefeated (4-0) run at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. Let's just say that last night wasn't the best night to take a shot on the White Sox for…
The complexion of the 145th Run for the Roses has changed considerably in the past week. First, favorite Omaha Beach gets scratched. Now the weather looks to be a big factor at Churchill Downs. Regardless of the track conditions or how stacked the field is, Derby Day is a traditional…
Day ball was kind to me on Thursday as the Twins and Rockies jumped out to early leads and never coughed them up. The 2-0 result pushes the week 5 record to 5-3 for a +2.58 unit net. Reads on starting pitchers are getting sharper and the team profiles are…
There was a ton of MLB action all day Wednesday but I found myself only on 1 game: Texas +118. Shelby Miller gave up 4 in a nasty 4th inning and both bullpens were shaky after a long night prior to. The Rangers had a good chance to take the…
Baseball in April is a beautiful thing. Betting baseball in April can be like a crapshoot when you're relying on projections and small data sets. May begins peak MLB handicapping season for me, so making it out of April right on the edge of the profit line (-1.16 units) is…
Tonight's action ushers out a tumultuous month of April with a full slate of games. I took one shot on Monday; a road dog play on the Oakland A's. The A's knocked Rodriguez around well in the 2nd, but Boston took advantage of a muffed inning-ending double play in the…
Monday means back to the grind at the office and a light MLB card to handicap. Week 4 finished strong with a nice 4-day mini-streak that gained 7.33 units back to the bankroll on a 11-5 record. Team data is getting stronger and reading most of the starting pitchers is…
Saturday's plays involved a four-pack of home teams headlined by the Toronto Blue Jays. They've owned the A's so far this season, notching their 5th win against Oakland in as many games. All the buzz has been around Vlad Jr. this weekend but he was essentially a non-factor in their…