Tuesday: my nemesis this MLB season. Fortunately, I played yesterday's slate about as good as I could have. My handicapping process led me to 4 sides that had promise but I was hesitant to overextend and potentially take another big hit. I sharpened the pencils, played 2 wagers, and left…
After triple-checking my handicapping on the Astros/Tigers game yesterday morning, I punched a single MLB ticket for the short Monday slate. The downside to the Astros +105 run line wager was the strong possibility that Matthew Boyd would shut the Houston offense down and the Tigers would do enough to…
Week 6 wrapped up Sunday with a thud (0-2, -2.05 units), but I won't complain after churning out another weekly profit. The 10-9 week had promise going into the weekend, yet I squeezed out a modest 1.20-unit win despite a disappointing finish. Getting some momentum rolling over the last few…
Handicapping bullpens can truly be a "playing the percentages" part of the game. Whether this is more evident in the MLB these days as compared to the past, I do not know and frankly don't have any interest in researching. Consistently good, consistently bad, or downright volatile relief units can…
The Rocky Mountain Hangover strikes again. San Francisco returned home yesterday after a series in Colorado only to get steamrolled 7-0 by Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds. This makes the Hangover a perfect 6-for-6 in 2019. It's truly difficult to split out where the Hangover impacts began and Castillo's…
Despite putting in work to handicap the short card, yesterday was damn near a day off with only one play: Yankees RL +115. The 3-1 Yankees win had most of the action take place in the last 2 innings, in which 3 of the 4 runs were scored. Leake and…
After an 0-fer on Tuesday, a 3-1 bounce back Wednesday was just what the doctor ordered. A 4-0 sweep would have been spectacular but I will happily take the +2.22 and get week 6 back to a respectable 5-6 for -0.70 units. No reason to run and hide from a…
Wednesday brings us a nice card of MLB action all day. After Tuesday's 0-5, I must say that there isn't too much buyer's remorse from those plays. The only truly regrettable wager was the one behind Dakota Hudson. I had reservations about backing him but liked the way the Cardinals…
Monday's pair of games reverses the 0-2 Sunday and brings in +2.13 units on a couple of short home dogs. As expected, we got a great pitchers' duel in San Diego that featured deGrom and Paddack, the latter of whom struck out 11 over 7.2 innings. The Mets' offense struggled…
A pair of losses to end week 5 is not what I was looking for, though it was not totally unexpected. Taking a shot on Toronto went about as well as the long shot play on the White Sox Saturday night: el busto! The Milwaukee run line loss was disappointing…
So much to say about the wackiness at Churchill Downs yesterday that we'll just leave unsaid... Saturday ended a small undefeated (4-0) run at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. Let's just say that last night wasn't the best night to take a shot on the White Sox for…
The complexion of the 145th Run for the Roses has changed considerably in the past week. First, favorite Omaha Beach gets scratched. Now the weather looks to be a big factor at Churchill Downs. Regardless of the track conditions or how stacked the field is, Derby Day is a traditional…
Day ball was kind to me on Thursday as the Twins and Rockies jumped out to early leads and never coughed them up. The 2-0 result pushes the week 5 record to 5-3 for a +2.58 unit net. Reads on starting pitchers are getting sharper and the team profiles are…
There was a ton of MLB action all day Wednesday but I found myself only on 1 game: Texas +118. Shelby Miller gave up 4 in a nasty 4th inning and both bullpens were shaky after a long night prior to. The Rangers had a good chance to take the…
Baseball in April is a beautiful thing. Betting baseball in April can be like a crapshoot when you're relying on projections and small data sets. May begins peak MLB handicapping season for me, so making it out of April right on the edge of the profit line (-1.16 units) is…
Tonight's action ushers out a tumultuous month of April with a full slate of games. I took one shot on Monday; a road dog play on the Oakland A's. The A's knocked Rodriguez around well in the 2nd, but Boston took advantage of a muffed inning-ending double play in the…
Monday means back to the grind at the office and a light MLB card to handicap. Week 4 finished strong with a nice 4-day mini-streak that gained 7.33 units back to the bankroll on a 11-5 record. Team data is getting stronger and reading most of the starting pitchers is…
Saturday's plays involved a four-pack of home teams headlined by the Toronto Blue Jays. They've owned the A's so far this season, notching their 5th win against Oakland in as many games. All the buzz has been around Vlad Jr. this weekend but he was essentially a non-factor in their…
The Nationals did it. They lost to the Padres as -200 favorites in their first game after finishing a series in Colorado. Even with a day of rest, the Rocky Mountain Hangover claims its 4th victim in as many situations. There wasn't much to this theory in 2018 (teams went…
It's amazing to think that the MLB season is still young despite being in its 4th full week. Teams are starting to develop their identities, some of which we already knew about while others have been a bit of a surprise. For the most part, I have shed my pre-season…
After the "gut punch" Monday that saw a Pittsburgh collapse and an Angels letdown in 14, the past couple days have each been 2-2 chops. The major benefit of playing plus-money wagers is that these chop days still add a few bucks to the accounts. Nothing major to speak of,…
I mentioned a couple days back me reading and hearing about a situational handicapping angle involving teams returning from a series at Coors Field in Denver. This was of particular interest to me because I had booked a play on Philadelphia at the Mets for that evening. The Phillies made…
0-3 is a bad day, but yesterday's 0-3 was a downright low blow. The -3.02 units is not that big of a hit to the bankroll or a major change to the pace I need to meet my 2019 season goal (see yesterday's article about pace). However, it can be…
Easter Sunday's 1-4 result was disappointing to say the least. The extra-innings loss by the Rays was the difference-maker in regard to maintaining a solid bounce back week. Unfortunately, the day's results made the week a slight loss of 0.45 units and the season just shy of -6 units. Before…
After a couple days of wet weather at several ballparks, it looks like Mother Nature is going to let the boys play ball on Easter Sunday. Yesterday's 4 wagers were chopped 2-2 but a bit of aggressiveness payed off with the Reds play, yielding 0.76 units on the day. Pending…
Friday's action started with a dog bet that was blown away by the Wrigley gusts, but finished strong with a solid Mariners road win. In between, Wainwright fell behind quickly to the Mets, the Yankees got to the Royals' pen, and the Pirates jumped out with 4 in the 1st…
Yesterday, my guys on the BetCrushers team said they don't subscribe to the "this game's a lock" mentality but that we would all be disappointed if the 2 tickets didn't cash. Well, they didn't cash. So consider me very disappointed. An 0-2 night shaved 2.1 units off the bankroll and…
Wednesday's "lucky 7" wagers were an overall positive at 5-2 with +3.21 units coming back to the bankroll. I had high expectations for the day, tempered with the underlying concern that about 10% of my bankroll was in play. A 3-0 start eased much of that concern and the evening…
It should have been an omen when Steven Matz got lit up for 8 runs without getting an out versus the Phillies last night. That was the big matchup I liked best out of my 4 plays that went 1-3 for a -1.65 unit net. No momentum from Monday's good…
Monday was a good start to this week. Coming off a brutal week, it was very important to get some good reads and even better results. 2-1 on short dogs got the job done, adding 1.16 units back to the bankroll and shaving the season loss to -6.34 units. The…
It has come to this. A 2-2 push on Sunday neither harms nor fouls the bankroll, but was oddly a huge relief considering it could have easily been an 0-4 day. The 0-fer would have been a hell of a lot more appropriate for my current run, BTW. Highlights: Jean…
We cracked a six pack of plays Saturday and I've gotta tell you, somebody must have shaken those cans up really good. The Yankees waited until the 7th inning to break a scoreless deadlock and eventually cover the +105 run line. But the second slug of games saw a stellar…
Yesterday's 5 plays started with a dud and ended on the west coast with 3 very disappointing outcomes. The 1-4 result cost -2.65 units and was the most costly day of the young season. In fact, this week has been a gut punch on the run line, shedding 8.1 units…
Yesterday presented a couple live dogs to jump on, both of which came through. There had been a drought of underdogs that looked reasonable in my handicapping opinion until yesterday, but the integration of early-season metrics help to isolate these opportunities versus relying purely on projections. Today's slate should present…
Yesterday's four pack of plays went a disappointing 1-3 for a loss of 2 units. Trevor Bauer was not sharp against the Tigers in the first play of the day. Boyd got a lot of weak contact from the Tribe and sealed the deal rather easily. Tampa was chomping at…
Tuesday was a day where I took shots on four aces via the run line. Early in the season I look for solid pitchers at home whose teams have an offensive advantage. My guys yesterday were Sale, deGrom, Castillo, and Greinke. None of those were reasonable money line players due…
A ride with the Phillies on the run line for their 3rd straight game results in another loss with that squad. Spoiler alert: I'm not on Philly this evening. That being said, Monday was a one-play day that knocks us back to -0.63 units on the season. Bouncing around the…
On a couple occasions during this young season I've noted the downside protection that run line plays offer when compared to laying -120 or greater on favorites. Forgoing the juice and coughing up a flat unit bet when the team loses the game can add incremental value in the form…
Saturday's 1-3 run line result was less than great, skimming 1.55 units from the season total that now sits at -0.93 units. Cardinals, Phillies, and Angels were poised to return midrange plus-money payouts but only LA got the money. All of the run line losses were straight up losses, so…
Tonight's Final Four action is sure to capture the attention of many bettors, and rightly so. As you'd expect, I've got MLB in my crosshairs. Friday's 2-1 on run line plays got me back in the black for the season, yielding +1.65 units for a +0.62-unit advantage since Opening Day.…
Some things don't go according to plan. Yesterday's 1-3 (-1.95 units) result was a good example, bringing the season net down to -1.03 units. Yet again, the Oakland A's were a bright spot on my betting card. A sloppy start for the A's transitioned over to the Sox, who gave…
Opening 7-Day Recap: Wednesday afternoon run line plays went 0-2 for a loss of 2.00 units. Season results are 9-11 for +0.92 units. A one-week gain just shy of +1 unit is OK considering projections are being adjusted and wagers are conservative. The big drag on profits was the loose…
Blake Snell assumed his Cy Young-winning form last night, racking up 13 Ks in 7 innings. Freeland held his own for the Rockies by striking out 10 but could not stay on the mound as long due to a 35-pitch 1st inning. The Rays offense did just enough to comfortably…
Monday started with a miss on the Pirates run line. Archer scattered 2 hits over 5 innings while picking up 8 Ks, but the Pirates bullpen looked like they were the ones with considerably less rest and gave it up. The Mets pulled out a 9th inning payback victory for…
The first weekend of baseball yielded 10 betting opportunities; 5 on Saturday, 5 on Sunday. Despite a massive breach of my MLB wagering principles with the Yankees -185 run line, good hits on 4 other RLs squeezed out a +1.03 unit profit over those 10 games. Most importantly, there was…
On a day that saw our Cincinnati Reds play get rained out, we experienced highs and lows. The lowest low was my lapse in judgement to grab the Yankees -185 on the run line. Should be able to smash the Orioles, right? The only redeeming factor is that we weren't…
The first weekend of MLB action brings back day baseball and a full 15-game schedule to dig into. Yesterday, I was on the wrong end of an absolutely spectacular hitting display by Paul Goldschmidt to lift the Cardinals over the Brewers. Matt Harvey had only one blemish against Oakland, a…
Opening Day did not disappoint me and the BetCrushers Team (who did better than my solo pick with a couple add-on winners). Berrios was absolutely dominant, which was a must for the Twins to get a +105 W over an on-point Kluber in front of a depleted Tribe lineup. When…
And with that, the excitement of a new MLB season fades into number-crunching. 15 games on Thursday's slate, 15 opportunities to start on the right foot. I model games to determine a probable score based on team and starting pitcher projections (and actual stats once we get a body of…
When spring comes into view, our focus splits between increasingly heated NCAA basketball action and the prospects of a profitable new MLB season. Spring training gives us insight into each team's season outlook while building excitement for over 2,400 games and even more wagering opportunities. Wait, over 2,400 games?!? This…