After Tuesday’s quick in-and-out solo shot on the Nationals/Cardinals first 5 inning position, it’s time to stretch out the playbook in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-14-2021. And that play was quick because the Cardinals pounded Strasburg for 4 runs in the 3rd and a ton more in the 5th. BTW, where was all that when I needed from St. Louis last week? I kid, but losing the bet sucks nonetheless. Due to the size of today’s card – and the fact that I need to get in the office super early – my handicaps for each game in play are tighter and to the point. We’ve got baseball all day and into the night, so buckle up and get that bankroll ready!
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles (-116)
These two division laggards battled in a pair of tight doubleheader games after Monday’s weather delay. The clubs split the pair and squeezed by one another as one-run victors in each competition with the third in this four-game series teed up this afternoon. Both of these offenses have been running fairly well since Sunday – Baltimore scoring 4+ runs in three of their last four games, and Seattle with 4+ runs in each of their last four. And yesterday’s combined 20 runs in the doubleheader was fairly impressive given how the weather in the Mid-Atlantic has been less than ideal.
But here’s a little insight into the Orioles’ recent success at the plate: they’ve been teeing off on left-handed pitching at an exceptional rate – about 50% better than versus righties. Granted, the O’s blew up Red Sox righties Nick Pivetta and Austin Brice on Sunday before entering this series. Then they clubbed Seattle’s lefty starters Justus Sheffield and Nick Margevicius for 8 runs in yesterday’s action. However, the visitors have been very proficient in the opposite sense. Seattle continues to be significantly better against righties this season – an attribute that played out yesterday as the Mariners popped John Means for 3 runs and Dean Kremer for 4. Here’s how these clubs have fared with their splits so far:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL v. LHP | .288 | .333 | .450 |
| BAL v. RHP | .201 | .279 | .326 |
| SEA v. LHP | .168 | .286 | .252 |
| SEA v. RHP | .259 | .320 | .446 |
Since the doubleheaders really jumbled up the bullpen flow, I’d rather avoid their relief units as much as possible. Although both groups have been respectable – at least relative to expectations – Seattle’s heavy usage yesterday is enough to steer me towards isolating a first 5 inning position.
J. Dunn (R) vs. M. Harvey (R)
This by no means is an insta-fade position on Matt Harvey. In fact, the dude has been respectable in the sense that he is pitching to contact and not issuing free passes. Harvey’s 1.55 WHIP says that he has been hittable as Boston tagged him for 13 hits and 6 runs in his 2021 starts. That’s a product of wear-and-tear on the 32-year-old who has been on the decline since 2017. His velocity is a couple ticks down so far this year, so to me this is a matter of whether Seattle takes advantage of a hittable pitcher or not. Harvey will give them opportunities as a 5+ FIP guy even though he has graded out well below that in his first two starts.
His counterpart, Justin Dunn, is no model of consistency though. Dunn struggles with the command of his fastball/slider/curveball repertoire, and this certainly played out with his 8 walks against the White Sox last week. Those backbreaking free passes earned him 3 runs on just 1 hit, and ended his day in the 5th inning. Like Harvey, Dunn is also a 5+ FIP arm but has generally done well to limit hard contact. But walks and home runs are killers. So there is significant risk in backing a guy like him if he cannot find the strike zone. If he limits walks to about 3 or 4 and can stretch out through a full 5 innings, the Mariners have a strong chance to take the early game this afternoon.
WAGER: Mariners First 5 +110 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Mariners First 5 Team Total Over 2.5 +110 (1/2 unit)
Look, this is anything but a sexy starting pitching matchup. And like I said before, I want nothing to do with these bullpens after yesterday’s doubleheader that was full of high-leverage situations. So I’ll stick to the first 5 innings to form a half-and-half position with plus-money returns. Seattle’s offense should deliver timely hitting against a contact-pitching righty, while Baltimore could continue to struggle against another righty unless Dunn coughs up another 5+ walk outing. It’s a precarious situation, but one that I will lean on this afternoon.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (+105)
Z. Wheeler (R) vs. D. Peterson (L)
Is this a “buy low” spot for Mets lefty David Peterson? After all, he was ripped for 6 runs last week in Philadelphia on 2 homers and 7 total hits in 4 innings. I have to chalk this up as an outlying rough start to the season, though there is some caution in the fact that the Phillies got to him last year for 5 runs in 2 innings. Do the Phils have his number, or is this coincidence? It’s probably a combination of that and the fact that they hit lefties quite well last season and could be poised to continue that trend this year.
Zack Wheeler is in position for another great year with Philadelphia, although the Mets had success scoring against their former teammate last year. In Wheeler’s three starts vs. New York, he gave up 8 runs in 20.1 innings. That’s not too hateful, though the Mets offense can hit him even with JD Davis on the shelf. Wheeler easily has a half-run edge over Peterson but I am still high on the Mets lineup and look to them to start converting their run-scoring opportunities very soon. Is this the day against a tough opponent though?
WAGER: Mets +105
Consider me a fool for backing David Peterson tonight – a guy who is 0-2 against the Phillies so far in his career. They could be his kryptonite and serve up another hit to my bankroll. But I’m buying “third time’s a charm” with Peterson despite the possibility that this thing could be cooked within a few innings. This feels wrong, yet after a third and fourth time running through this matchup I just cannot get away from the Mets getting plus money at home as they continue to make up ground in the division. I hate this bet but I’m too drawn in by the price.
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals (-125)
J. Ross (R) vs. A. Wainwright (R)
The Cardinals are far from lighting the world on fire with their bats – except when it came to blowing up Stephen Strasburg last night. But here we go again with the Nationals facing a veteran righty. After their offensive frustrations against Jack Flaherty and his sketchy command, Washington is now slashing .214/.279/.293 against right-handed pitching. And Wainwright showed incredible resilience in his home start against the Brewers where he bounced back from loading the bases in the 1st inning to deliver 5 innings of 1-run ball. That came on the heels of his season opener in Cincinnati, where the Reds thumped him for 7 runs with a .462 BABIP.
Joe Ross looked great having stymied the Dodgers with 5 innings of 2-hit shutout work last week. That said, Ross should still be around a half-run worse than Waino as a pitcher who is susceptible to giving up free passes. And this top of the St. Louis lineup with Edman, Goldschmidt, and Arenado can punish someone like Ross. Neither team had to tap their better bullpen arms in last night’s blowout, and both units have done well for their clubs so far this season. My play is more about fading the Nationals offense when facing righties than it is the expectation for another Cardinals offensive explosion.
WAGER: Cardinals -125
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-205)
N. Neidert (R) vs. C. Morton (R)
As much respect that I have for Charlie Morton and the Atlanta offense, I just cannot lay this much juice. And their recent trend of losing outright is worrisome even if the lay is reduced by taking the run line. But I don’t want to miss this opportunity to back Atlanta’s offense against a 5 FIP type of starter in Nick Neidert. The 24-year-old fared well against the Mets’ sluggish offense last week, despite yielding 5 walks in 4.1 innings. Plus they catch a Marlins bullpen that has performed quite poorly to date.
Atlanta eclipsed the 5-run plateau in four of their last five games after a sleepy opening series in Philadelphia. Now guys like Freeman, Acuna, and Albies are heating up at the plate so I look for their offensive production to continue against the Marlins. Even Marcell Ozuna is starting to get in the mix after smacking a homer yesterday and going 4-for-10 in the first two games of this series. A couple hits from Ozuna today could easily push their total above 5 runs with their core really clicking right now.
WAGER: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 -135
Around the Horn
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