Last week’s rough end bled into week 9, which started with a thud. Eventually it wrapped up with an 8-11 record and an unpleasant loss of 3.06 units. We roll into week 10 on a more positive note; the last three days brought in 4.55 units on a 6-2 record. This is well off the expected season-long pace that I’ve established over the years but there’s nearly four months of the MLB season remaining. Since my wager unit is only 2% of the total bankroll, this downswing is just a blip on the radar.
Yesterday’s two plays ended with a total sweat job. Dodgers couldn’t touch a AAA-level Nick Pivetta but managed to blow up the Phillies bullpen for 7 runs in the 8th inning. The +120 run line play covered the +116 Reds wager and brought in a little profit. Mad props go to Max Scherzer, who was in vintage form yesterday. He spared the troubled Nats relievers by going 8 innings of 1-run ball. It took him 120 pitches to lock the game down, but his performance was exactly what they needed.
After Sunday, I am 0 for my last 4 wagers on the Cincinnati Reds. And those 4 losses happen to be the 4 losses in their 4-4 record over the last 8 games. I’m waiting for a certified letter from Reds Management threatening a cease and desist order on my betting their games. Who knew that I’d have such bad mojo for the Redlegs?
There’s an extremely short 4-game slate in the MLB today and only 2 of them are on the board as of 6:30 a.m. eastern. One game I am considering but that is not yet on the board:
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Depends on Price: Astros under -130
Corbin Martin is not the most reliable guy that you want to lay money behind with his 1.71 WHIP. But he’s only going to be in there for a few innings before one of the best bullpens in the MLB takes over. Despite all the injuries to the Astros, they still have veteran hitters that continue to lead this team to victories. They’re on a 7-2 run and keep getting wins with solid pitching and a balanced mix of power and small-ball run manufacturing.
Wade LeBlanc is not too much different than Martin when it comes to an overall pitching profile. Seattle does not offer him very good support at all, as they have one of the league’s worst bullpens. Both pitchers likely won’t make it past the 5th inning so anything goes when it gets to the Mariners’ relievers. Martin is more of a 4-inning guy but has the support to make this an effective short start. His 45.1% ground ball rate is better than LeBlanc’s 34.3% and he gives up only 35.3% hard contact as opposed to LeBlanc’s 41.2%. This is splitting hairs though, since the bullpens should be the determining factor tonight.
