Wade LeBlanc damn well could have gone a full 9 innings if Seattle didn’t use a starter last night. LeBlanc gave up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk over 8 great innings as the Mariners fell to the Astros 4-2. The damage was done in the 1st inning with Houston’s 3-run start to the game. They took the lead early and never gave it up despite a brief 3-inning outing from Corbin Martin. We expected a short appearance from Martin before handing it over to a great bullpen that did not allow a single run in 6 innings of work.
A 1-0 start to the week is never a bad thing. The past 4 days have been fruitful, adding +5.55 units on a 7-2 record. The ebbs and flows of the MLB season are alive and kicking without a doubt. We’re back to a full slate of evening baseball, and it’s time to find some winners and keep things trending positively…
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Lopez on the Road: Brewers RL +110
Miami has played good baseball lately, going 5-5 in their last 10 games and winners of their last 2. Pablo Lopez is a key part of this success, having out-dueled Madison Bumgarner on May 29th in Miami. However, Lopez has been a completely different guy in Miami than he has been on the road. Check out his home/road splits:
HOME: 1.84 ERA, .176 BAA, 6.20 K/BB, 0.31 HR/9
AWAY: 8.26 ERA, .303 BAA, 2.40 K/BB, 2.22 HR/9
This is a major disparity that is disguised by moderate overall statistics when the home and road numbers are blended together. We backed him at home in his last start for a profit with this in mind, and are betting against him with this same knowledge. Chase Anderson will need to pitch better than his typical level to give the run line bet a decent chance of winning. His outings have been short and he typically gives up 2-3 runs while he’s on the mound. Anderson has a low 33.3% ground ball rate but generates a good amount of soft contact (20.4%). The Marlins have ratcheted up their power at the plate lately, making this a surprisingly tougher task for Anderson and a decent Brewers bullpen.
This will not be a cake walk for the Brewers even though Lopez should give them plenty of chances to score runs. He’s made it through only 6.2 innings in his last 2 road starts, yielding 14 earned runs and 5 homers. Milwaukee should see plenty of the Marlins’ poor bullpen if Lopez pitches poorly, though their own is slightly above average. -175 on the money line is not an option for me, so I will back the Brew Crew on the run line. It bodes well that 5 of their last 6 wins have been by 2 or more runs, despite them being the home team tonight.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
Number Grab: Twins +118
The Twins find themselves in the uncommon position of underdog against Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Indians tonight. I actually have this as a wash with everything factored into my handicapping process. My predisposition is to back the Twins anyhow, as they have been a cash cow for their backers this season. Devin Smeltzer gets his second start of the season on the heels of a great debut against Milwaukee where he gave up 0 runs in 6 innings. I’ve adjusted his production to be more middle-of-the-road since backing up that start with a repeat performance is unlikely.
Shane Bieber is Cleveland’s budding star righty, though he has been victim to a few rough starts this season. Otherwise, he’s done quite well for a struggling team that was expected to win the AL Central. Milwaukee has taken this position in the first quarter of the season, so it’s tough not to expect Bieber and the Indians to be thoroughly motivated to take this series from the Twins and close the 11.5-game gap between them.
Bieber could stifle this potent Minnesota lineup that has one of the most productive and efficient offenses in the MLB. However, they were shut down by Charlie Morton in the opening game of their last series at Tampa Bay. Bieber has a great 1.1 WHIP and has only yielded 2 home runs in his last 4 starts at home, so odds are he gives a great effort against the division leader. Though his 38.3% ground ball and 41.2% hard contact rates could be better, he has done well with limiting damage at Progressive Field.
Cleveland holds an edge with their bullpen, making a Twins offensive explosion a long shot. We have seen an uptick in Cleveland’s offensive production that could strain the rookie Smeltzer. Minnesota is on an 8-2 run in their last 10 games that includes a 4-1 mark on the road. It doesn’t appear to matter where they win either; they’re 19-9 at home and 21-9 on the road. I have this as a coin flip game by the numbers, so I’ll grab the +118 with the upside that the Twins have simply done a better job of winning games than the Indians have.
