PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-4
SEASON RESULTS:
4-10
Week 2 Recap:
Another disappointing week for our player prop bets has us sitting in a pretty ugly position two weeks into the 2022 NFL season. The good news is it’s a long season and there is plenty of time to turn it around. Our two wins were pretty sound as we faded Tom Brady due to a lack of weapons and playing in a stadium he’s recently struggled in, and relied on Cooper Kupp to come through again. Our losses were big misses as we had Tua’s under in yardage, when all he did was sling it around in the second half absolutely crushing his total. Deebo Samuel had a nice game for the 49ers, but we opted for his anytime TD prop, which didn’t get there. With the Colts trailing for most of the game, and with no viable passing threat, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards never got there. And finally, lesson learned regarding Donavan People-Jones, as he’s clearly erratic in terms of usage and ability. Lots of things learned overall that will hopefully lead to a more productive week three and rest of the season.
Week 3 Preview:
When we started researching for player props the initial plan was to really drill down and go thin with just the wagers we really liked. We ended up with so many matchups we felt were viable plays, that here we are with a full ten spot of bets. For the second week in a row we’re fading the greatest quarterback to ever do it, and we’re riding the most consistent wide receiver in the league. Beyond that, we’re looking at some players we also had highlighted in our Daily Fantasy Football article we expect to do well. There’s a lot of variety with this weekend’s plays, so feel free to pick and choose. Despite the slow start, we’re optimistic about how this week could play out.
Our Picks:
Tom Brady – Under 242.5 Yards Passing (-110)
Even though Tom Brady doesn’t look quite as automatic as he has throughout his career, this fade is more about the matchup and his lack of weapons. In fact, it’s been a while since we’ve seen a yardage total this low for the GOAT. The suspension of Mike Evans means that Brady will be without his top three wideouts against a really good Green Bay secondary. Even the guys left on the roster like Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are banged up heading into the contest. The Bucs are so thin that they’ve activated Cole Beasley, who literally just got to the team a couple of days ago. Brady will still find ways to move the ball, and we could see a guy like Leonard Fournette play an even bigger role as a receiver. Overall, we’re expecting a lower scoring game, and it’s tough to see how Brady could eclipse this mark unless he manages to hit a monster bomb somewhere along the way. Look for a stat line that is similar to what we saw a week ago from TB12.
Justin Jefferson – Over 98.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
The Vikings and Kirk Cousins were completely inept after an early drive against the Eagles on Monday Night Football. As a result Justin Jefferson put up a mortal line that is not what we’re used to seeing from the talented receiver. When you want to get back on track offensively, a home game against the Detroit Lions could be good for what ails this team. As improved as the Lions are on offense, their defense still has a ways to go. Actually, their offensive improvements potentially help Jefferson here as this game could end up being pretty high scoring if Detroit can keep pace. Jefferson is so much more talented than anyone in the Lions secondary that he should be open with regularity in this contest. With Kirk Cousins much better play at home against inferior teams, Jefferson should definitely find his way over the century mark in this contest.
Stefon Diggs – Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)
After what Stefon Diggs considered a disappointing season in 2021, he’s started this year absolutely on fire. The Bills top wideout has looked completely synced up with quarterback Josh Allen, hammering both man and zone coverage. One of the marquee matchups of the weekend is the divisional rivalry between these Bills and the Dolphins in humid Miami. Throughout his career Josh Allen has completely owned the Dolphins, and there’s little reason to believe that won’t continue here. Unlike the Bills defense, the offense is pretty healthy entering the contest and Diggs will continue to see a lot of targets. Speaking of the Bills defense, it’s missing five really important starters, which means the Dolphins could light up the scoreboard on their end. That means the Bills could be throwing for a full four quarters, something they haven’t had to do in their first two blowout wins. At this point, seven or more catches seems pretty automatic for Diggs in any contest.
Tyreek Hill – Over 72.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
You could probably just read the recap above regarding Stefon Diggs to see why we like Tyreek Hill this weekend. The Bills are down three of their top 4 players in their secondary, and two of their top defensive pass rushers. That’s not an ideal spot to be in when you’re facing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Both receivers should have nice days, but we’re going with Hill, as he seems to have a vendetta against the Buffalo Bills. He’s been able to exploit defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier’s defense with a combination of big plays and short catches. Facing two rookie cornerbacks without free safety Micah Hyde playing centerfield, he should see a lot of work. With the Bills also expected to score a lot of points, Hill should hit this mark Sunday.
Jalen Hurts – Over 52.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
A season ago we had what was basically an automatic bet with Jalen Hurts rushing yardage total, as he surpassed it in six straight contests before the sportsbooks adjusted the total up. Hurts is two for two this season going over his total, and at 52.5 yards, he’s beaten that both times as well. The theory here is really the same as a year ago, which is we’re playing this prop until it stops hitting. (You’ll see this theme later in the article as well). The Eagles travel to Washington for an important divisional game and Hurts should have another good game. Oh by the way, the Commanders own the league’s worst rush defense after two games. He’ll throw the ball plenty, but we’re strictly playing the numbers here and going over.
Cooper Kupp – Over 97.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
In what’s been a paltry start to our player props this season, Cooper Kupp has been the bright spot for us, covering his number in both week one and two. At this point, we see no reason to not bet on Kupp until the books adjust his totals, or he doesn’t hit the mark. On top of his consistency, Kupp has a great matchup against the rival Cardinals this Sunday. Arizona has had issues both getting to opposing quarterbacks, and covering wide receivers. That’s a great recipe that leads us to believe that Kupp should be able to make it three for three with his yardage prop to begin the season. Side note – If for whatever reason you don’t want to play Kupp, look closely at Tyler Higbee in this one as well.
Michael Pittman, Jr. – Over 67.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
When you look at the rosters around the NFL, it’s possible that no team has a bigger dropoff from WR1 to their next option as the Indianapolis Colts do. Michael Pittman, Jr. is a really good receiving weapon for quarterback Matt Ryan, and beyond him it’s pretty slim pickings. This was very visible last week with Pittman missing the contest against the Jaguars, and the Colts unable to get anything going offensively. He’ll return this week to face the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs and you can bet Matt Ryan will be looking his direction often. As much as Indy will want to control the game with Jonathan Taylor, by default Pittman has to get some yards without any other real threats on the outside. Sitting at 67.5 yards, we’re going to ride this over as we’ve got Pittman pegged for closer to 100 potential receiving yards.
David Montgomery – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Our DFS Star of the Week is the Chicago Bears David Montgomery, a player who has tremendous upside against the Houston Texans. Montgomery has had some tough matchups to start the season and finally gets a bit of a breather against a Texans defense that plays hard, but isn’t overly talented. Returning home to Chicago, the Bears really want to get their running attack working better to support quarterback Justin Fields. Allowing over 5 yards per carry in their first two contests, Montgomery is the type of physical back that can really give Houston trouble. Expect to see him getting the ball often, and he should find his way over the 67.5 yards total.
James Robinson – Over 53.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Many believed last year’s first round draft pick Travie Etienne would be the bellcow for the Jaguars this season. James Robinson had other plans as he continues to just make plays and gain tough yards on the ground. Robinson has what might seem like a really tough matchup on the road against the Chargers this week, but upon deeper review, is pretty enticing. The Chargers have been great with their pass rush, but are still having big trouble stopping the run through their first two games. What really makes Robinson a nice play here is how this game could potentially play out. Initially, you would figure Trevor Lawrence would be throwing the ball a lot, however the absence of Chargers QB Justin Herbert could completely change the flow of this game. Those two factors really make Robinson a sneakily strong play in Los Angeles.
Saquon Barkley – Over 23.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
You’ve got to feel good for Saquon Barkley as he looks healthy and strong after missing most of the last two years with major injuries. The Giants put their 2-0 record on the line against the rival Cowboys in prime time Monday Night. Barkley has had some really good performances in prime time games, and against the Cowboys. His rushing prop and total props are interesting, but the best value seems to come with his receiving yardage prop. Barkley should see the ball in both designed screens, and also in some check down opportunities. With his ability in space, he can beat this yardage total in one play. We’re going to wrap up the football weekend with one more prop on the Giants running back.
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