I’m taking my lumps in the first couple weeks betting this NCAA hoops season, but still grinding after 15 lackluster handicaps. Sunday’s 1-2 outcome was a mixed bag of a solid win, bad loss, and near miss on the swing game. Monday’s slate isn’t the biggest but the Road Dog Report for 12/16/2019 contains a pair of tickets tonight.
12/15/2019 Recap
Let’s start with the highlight. Tennessee State (+4.5) delivered with a redemption game after laying a second-half egg for us on Tuesday. The TSU win and cover extends their ATS record away from home to 6-1. Chuba Ohams did not kill the Tigers, who were much more efficient from downtown and created a ton of second chances on the offensive boards. They almost let it slip but showed great resiliency to battle back and grab their first road win of the season.
Illinois State (+7) was the most disappointing side on the card, falling 64-79 after being down by seven at half. NKU’s Tyler Sharpe absolutely killed the Redbirds, putting up 30 points on 10-17 shooting from the field that included five daggers from beyond the arc. Dantez Walton met his quota with 19 points, as expected. Without a doubt, Sharpe’s “Slumpbuster” was the difference-maker for the Norse.
The swing game fell into the loss column as Coppin State’s (+7) late rally fell a couple points short of a cover. UMBC got it done with significant second-chance and fast break advantages despite a poor performance from the charity stripe. Coppin State’s major outperformance of the betting market going into yesterday’s game is something to watch for as lines get made for them down the road.
(829) Montana St. @ North Dakota St. -8
The 6-3 Bobcats of Montana State hit the road for the first time in about a month to face the 5-5 North Dakota State Bison. This is an improved Bobcat squad under first-year coach Danny Sprinkle. Montana State shoots the ball well (53.1% inside the arc) and plays solid defense. If there’s a glaring knock on the Bobcats, it is their susceptibility to turn the ball over.
The Bison are the defending Summit League Tournament Champions who made their way to the Big Dance last season. They have a lot of returning experience from that championship team and have also made their mark this year with strong defense. The Bison are a good rebounding group that does not turn it over much. Junior 6’10” forward Rocky Kreuser is a force down low, paired with senior guard Vinnie Shahid who is not afraid to shoot the three ball.
Kreuser will be countered by a pair of big Bobcats. 6’9″ freshman forward Jubrile Belo has been a surprise spark for Montana State. He is joined in the front court by 6’11” junior forward Devin Kirby, who is a very good rebounder. Barring major turnover issues, I handicap Montana State as a good matchup to the Bison’s strengths.
On the Money
Although North Dakota State is only 1-2 ATS at home, they’ve covered three of their last four and have settled into the role as the favorite. I find their strength of schedule to be subpar and this Montana State squad could be a good test for them. The Bobcats are 5-2 ATS overall, including 2-1 ATS in true away games and 2-0 ATS on a neutral court. I’ll take this evenly-matched Road Dog at +7.5 without qualification.
(835) Loyola Marymount @ UC Davis Pk
Coach Mike Dunlap and Loyola Marymount want to get their 5-5 team above .500 and roll over their success from last season. They face 4-8 UC Davis at The Pavilion tonight in what opened as a pick ’em game. The LMU Lions are not overly big but have been buoyed by 6’5″, 243-lb. junior forward Eli Scott. Scott’s progression through his collegiate career has been sharply positive, and he has certainly taken his game to another level this year.
UC Davis moves the ball well and will need 6’11” senior center Matt Neufield to create matchup issues down low. He’ll need to control the boards and draw fouls from the Lions to throw them off their game. The Aggies will likely have their hands full with Eli Scott and the Bulgarian sophomore forward Ivan Alipiev. LMU is an excellent shooting team that wants to control the game by taking high-percentage shots. UCD’s key to disrupting the Lions is drawing fouls and creating a need to shuffle their lineup prematurely.
On the Money
UC Davis is on an impressive 5-0 ATS run and covered in their only game in Davis this year, surprising Northern Illinois with a 66-57 win as 4-point dogs. Loyola has faced stiffer competition so far, covering at Colorado and Nevada but disappointing their backers by failing to cover vs. Prairie View A&M Friday night. The Lions are 2-0 ATS away from home and 2-0 as a favorite straight up. I grabbed them as a road pick ’em, which is a spot that typically treats us well (15-4 last season).
Road Dog Report for 12/16/2019 – Final Card
- Montana State +8
- Loyola Marymount Pk
Although the Road Dog Report drops on gameday morning, our handicapping begins the night before. Be sure to check our NCABB handicapping page, which is the first place where we post our hoops wagers. 5-10 is a lackluster start but there’s plenty of runway for profit this season.
