What else can you say about last week’s battle at Pocono? Let alone the course of events that shook out a couple hours after Denny Hamlin completed his burnout and popped his bottle of bubbly. Just another week on the Cup Series circuit, right? When it comes to the on-track action, Blaney’s misfortunes cost me while Byron’s pit miscue swung the pendulum back the other way. That’s matchup betting in a nutshell. I’ll take the modestly successful 2-1 and move right into the 2022 Verizon 200 at the Indy Road Course with another trio of matchup bets. BOL with your wagers!
Playing the 2022 Verizon 200 – Featured Handicaps for Indy
Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s hybrid road course was an unmitigated disaster last year in its Cup Series debut – one of those messy races that was mind-blowing and irritating at the same time. Plenty of smart minds in the NASCAR handicapping space expect less of an attrition race due to much-needed track modifications, making last year’s DNFs less of a concern. And as our friend Paul keeps reminding me, 2022 is all about this season’s results and much less about past history. New car and new challengers to the checkered flag every single week. I would be remiss not to give another plug to Ryan at iFantasyRace.com for his excellent data analysis and packaging that helps shape my grades.
JGR Showdown: Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Busch
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell | A- | B- | B- | A |
| Ky. Busch | B- | D | C- | B- |
Christopher Bell’s implied 55.6% win percentage in this matchup says a lot about the state of the #18 team. Kyle Busch had the fastest car at Pocono last week – with a major caveat – despite lagging the big guns in speed outside of Nashville and the Tricky Triangle. The general thought that all four JGR Toyotas likely had the same illegal modification overhangs both Busch and Christopher Bell’s #20. Although Bell has not been stellar across the three road course races this season, his speed has topped his teammate’s en route to out-finishing Busch in each race. The kicker that justifies the -125 price tag is Bell’s speed in practice (fastest 5-lap and 10-lap averages) and 4th place qualifying runs. Never count out Kyle Busch…but Bell is the guy to beat in this one.
WAGER: Bell -125 (DraftKings)
Road Course Speed: Daniel Suarez vs. Chase Briscoe
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suarez | A- | A | A | A- |
| Briscoe | B- | B- | B | A |
This should be a really interesting head-to-head with Chase Briscoe gaining an edge by running 5th in yesterday’s Xfinity race. That morning he earned a P3 starting position for the Cup race with a great qualifying run. On the flip side, Daniel Suarez showed excellent speed in practice and starts 11th – back in traffic as compared to the #14. Looking at the bigger picture, however, the Trackhouse #99 has been one of the fastest cars in recent weeks with results to match: 5 Top 10s in the last 6 races. Not to mention Daniel’s Sonoma win and P5 at Road America during this hot streak. If this race stays green down the stretch there is added value in Suarez’ top-tier late run speed at road courses this season. This is a scenario where I expect Briscoe to be super tough but Trackhouse has the car and the driver to beat.
WAGER: Suarez -110 (DraftKings)
Sneaky Fords: Michael McDowell vs. Brad Keselowski
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDowell | B- | B | A- | B |
| Keselowski | C | C+ | B- | A- |
Don’t sleep on Michael McDowell and Front Row Motorsports’ #34 Ford. His worst finish on road courses this season is P13 at COTA and has since rattled off a P3 at Sonoma and P8 at Road America. Those results were good enough to beat Brad Keselowski in each race, although COTA was a P13-P14 close one. MM’s #34 was also a step ahead of the #6 in all three contests in terms of speed. My only concern with fading Brad this afternoon is just how fast he was in practice (2nd fastest 5-lap and 3rd fastest 10-lap averages). That said, McDowell at a -110 pick ’em is a great deal in my opinion after digesting all of the factors.
WAGER: McDowell -110 (DraftKings)
The Checkered Flag Awaits
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