Monday ushers in a handful of new series getting underway, joining a weekend carryover in Philadelphia. Divisional battles in Cleveland and Oakland shape up to be interesting early-season tests. This week's Breakdown turns to Target Field with a pair of teams on the right trajectory as May comes into bloom.…
Mother Nature might actually cut today's action on the diamonds some much needed slack - especially in New York where the undefeated Tigers want to keep their status as the last remaining undefeated team alive. The Tigers/Mets double header makes six games on the slate with a pair of AL…
We're becoming big fans of the AL Central after a correlated under/over win total pairing with Chicago and Minnesota got home. And that was one year removed from being rewarded for buying low on both Minnesota and Cleveland. (Don't worry, this self-back slapping gives way to shame in the NL…
An uneventful start to the betting week leads into a low-volume Wednesday with just a pair of wagers in hand this morning. I'll take what the slate gives me as the season rolls along with less than two weeks before the All-Star Break. After splitting Friday night's featured handicaps, it's…
Sunday's see-saw battle in Oakland brought home the over even with 18 men left on base between the Reds and A's. Hey, whatever it takes to get the dub is good enough for me. Unfortunately, the new month brought a short Monday slate that I had to pass on. Today's…
Thursday's short MLB slate kept me on the sidelines after a nice Wednesday run featuring the under in Detroit. Three weeks into the season and some teams have shown their true colors while others are still beating around the bush. That makes for very interesting early season handicapping! After a…
We made it through the offseason. We made it through six grueling Divisional Previews. Now it's showtime. Shameless plug: visit our MLB page to check out the six preview articles and futures positions. March 30th is in sight and we have your 2023 Opening Day handicapping covered with a quick…
It's quiet out there in the Midwest - and that's how the Cleveland Guardians stayed under the radar with one of the strongest second-half performances in the MLB. The rebranded - and still beloved - Guardians squad finished the regular season on a 38-18 heater that yielded an eleven game…
Just like that, two domestic books drop their season win totals out of the blue. Days away from the NFL Playoffs kickoff and our mid-January projections get put to the test. Caesars Sportsbook and BetRivers (Kambi) posted eight totals in common this week and the other 22 varied anywhere from…
The MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-12-2022 comes at you after a disappointing - yet not surprising - failure to produce runs in Chicago. It sure seemed like a good idea at the time...what more can I say? And in full disclosure, today's Solo Shot does not have my money behind…
JJ@BC With just one week left before leaving the country, it's almost like I'm in one of those money booths with cash swirling around. How much can I grab before the thing shuts off and my 10-day hiatus kicks in? While I joke, my MLB betting has maintained a positive…
JJ@BC The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-20-2022 is far from a morning production today as I jumped on with Big Tasty for an afternoon live stream. We last joined forced at the beginning of May for an excellent show with some nice results. Can we put our heads together for…
First off, I owe our loyal readers an apology - a two-fold one. 1) Pablo's bad day on Monday and my overconfidence in the Marlins. 2) Getting sabotaged by the day job early Tuesday AM, sinking my plans for an article. The day job also poses a high likelihood that…
"Maybe Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are breaking out of their slumps. Maybe it’s a mirage." Perhaps I invoked just enough mojo in yesterday's edition to get the Astros over the first 5 inning hump last night and cash our ticket. Certainly a sweaty one, but isn't that the way…
The weekend is here as is the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-23-2022 after a fantastic Friday that arguably could have been better. I got a little greedy with the Mets -1 run line that left me with a push in Phoenix after the bullpens took over. Never fear, as profits…
The Minnesota Twins entered the 2021 season with high hopes of a third consecutive AL Central crown. Reality proved to be quite the bear for the defending champs from the get-go. Instead of a repeat, the Twins cratered to the bottom of the heap while the Chicago White Sox completed…
The worst thing about having to be an early riser is missing the late games and occasionally not seeing the evening contests get resolved. Last night, I missed Arizona's big inning against Pablo Lopez and MadBum's dominance that delivered me a loss. Also at that time, the White Sox punished…
The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-11-2021 returns after a one-day hiatus due in part to a lackluster Monday MLB slate. I left off with a dud from the Miami Marlins' offense on Sunday despite Sandy Alcantara's fantastic outing. Between Daniel Vogelbach's scorching line drive homer and Miami getting picked off…
The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-7-2021 is back after a one-day hiatus to accommodate my work schedule. We left off with a failed attempt at a game total in Washington - further reinforcing my disdain for MLB totals - and a perfect-ish gem from John Means. Ironically, I nearly missed…
The AL Central proved to be very competitive down the stretch in the truncated 2020 MLB season. Three legitimate playoff teams vied for the division - Minnesota, Chicago, and Cleveland - with just a single game separating them in the end. It took a 16-8 surge from the Twins to…
The Minnesota Twins owned the AL Central in 2019. They took the division lead on April 20th and ran away with it by smashing offensive records and by getting unexpected production out of starting pitchers. It looked like a runaway until the Indians picked themselves up off the mat and…
When it comes to having a plan, yesterday's included a pair of plus-money games to keep an upward trend alive. Unfortunately, the Miami Marlins completely ran Chase Anderson out of his own building and pounded the Brewers 16-0. I had identified Anderson as the weak link in Tuesday's run line…
Wade LeBlanc damn well could have gone a full 9 innings if Seattle didn't use a starter last night. LeBlanc gave up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk over 8 great innings as the Mariners fell to the Astros 4-2. The damage was done in the 1st inning…
When the boys in the AL West get together, you better buckle up because their games don't land smoothly! Sitting on Oakland and Texas tickets yesterday, I knew this going into those games and certainly got my money's worth! After a Cincinnati beatdown, a split on my AL West tickets…
Due to a lack of cooperation from the Reds and Diamondbacks, we're off to a lackluster 0-2 start (-2.15 units) to week 9 in the MLB. Cincinnati was super sloppy in game one of their Memorial Day doubleheader with the Pirates. A balk, fielding errors, base running gaffs, and a…
At least there's the Twins. Their 8-1 dismantling of the White Sox easily covered the run line and provided the lone W yesterday. Cincinnati gave it a good run as a +137 dog but fell short as the game got late. Rangers/Angels was a pitchers duel that went down to…
Friday's 2 plays were a...you guessed it: a split. 1-1 on the day (-0.04 units) moves the week to 3-4 for -0.95 units. The weak link was St. Louis. I tried to buck the Cardinals slump off a day of rest with the Braves coming into town after a 13-inning…
Guess the outfield was a little on the soggy side last night for the Twins/Angels series finale. This cancelled one of my two plays, which is unfortunate because the other play (Diamondbacks/Padres) was a complete bust. Eric Lauer was painting the corners while Merrill Kelly was allergic to the strike…
So I made no progress on my run line bet approach research last night. And the way this week's work schedule looks, this project may end up taking place on my flight down to BetCrushers HQ Friday evening. What better way to spend a couple hours on a plane than…
Tuesday: my nemesis this MLB season. Fortunately, I played yesterday's slate about as good as I could have. My handicapping process led me to 4 sides that had promise but I was hesitant to overextend and potentially take another big hit. I sharpened the pencils, played 2 wagers, and left…
Handicapping bullpens can truly be a "playing the percentages" part of the game. Whether this is more evident in the MLB these days as compared to the past, I do not know and frankly don't have any interest in researching. Consistently good, consistently bad, or downright volatile relief units can…
Despite putting in work to handicap the short card, yesterday was damn near a day off with only one play: Yankees RL +115. The 3-1 Yankees win had most of the action take place in the last 2 innings, in which 3 of the 4 runs were scored. Leake and…
There was a ton of MLB action all day Wednesday but I found myself only on 1 game: Texas +118. Shelby Miller gave up 4 in a nasty 4th inning and both bullpens were shaky after a long night prior to. The Rangers had a good chance to take the…
Saturday's plays involved a four-pack of home teams headlined by the Toronto Blue Jays. They've owned the A's so far this season, notching their 5th win against Oakland in as many games. All the buzz has been around Vlad Jr. this weekend but he was essentially a non-factor in their…
We cracked a six pack of plays Saturday and I've gotta tell you, somebody must have shaken those cans up really good. The Yankees waited until the 7th inning to break a scoreless deadlock and eventually cover the +105 run line. But the second slug of games saw a stellar…
Yesterday's 5 plays started with a dud and ended on the west coast with 3 very disappointing outcomes. The 1-4 result cost -2.65 units and was the most costly day of the young season. In fact, this week has been a gut punch on the run line, shedding 8.1 units…
Blake Snell assumed his Cy Young-winning form last night, racking up 13 Ks in 7 innings. Freeland held his own for the Rockies by striking out 10 but could not stay on the mound as long due to a 35-pitch 1st inning. The Rays offense did just enough to comfortably…
And with that, the excitement of a new MLB season fades into number-crunching. 15 games on Thursday's slate, 15 opportunities to start on the right foot. I model games to determine a probable score based on team and starting pitcher projections (and actual stats once we get a body of…