An uneventful start to the betting week leads into a low-volume Wednesday with just a pair of wagers in hand this morning. I’ll take what the slate gives me as the season rolls along with less than two weeks before the All-Star Break. After splitting Friday night’s featured handicaps, it’s time for a solo shot in the early game for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-28-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
MINNESOTA TWINS @ ATLANTA BRAVES (ATL -160, 10)
When it comes to offense, you can make a strong argument that there’s no team hotter right now than the Atlanta Braves. The slugfest over the weekend in Cincinnati certainly did not hurt their cause. 24 runs in that three-game set in the midst of a 14-game stretch having scored 4+ runs in each contest. The rest of the National League is on notice as the strongest contender for the pennant has gone 12-2 during this offensive heater.
ATL Offense, by Period
| HR | R | Line | BABIP | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | 13 | 33 | .288/.365/.560 | .296 | 145 |
| L14 Days | 32 | 93 | .311/.385/.588 | .318 | 158 |
| Season | 141 | 432 | .271/.341/.484 | .305 | 121 |
Tell us something we don’t already know, right? This Atlanta lineup is damn good, and they’re getting it done without an unsustainable BABIP. Contrast the Braves’ current form with a Minnesota Twins offense that has struggled to gain traction this season. They’ve hovered around league average while not bringing much to the table on the base paths.
MIN Offense, by Period
| HR | R | Line | BABIP | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L7 Days | 10 | 24 | .243/.296/.429 | .287 | 99 |
| L14 Days | 16 | 46 | .227/.289/.387 | .287 | 87 |
| Season | 104 | 341 | .232/.309/.401 | .292 | 99 |
Despite the Braves’ offensive explosion in the past seven days, the four contests not involving the Cincinnati Reds have stayed under the game total. Likewise, the Twins have contributed to five unders in their seven games during the same period. Is this indicative of how this afternoon should unfold? Yes and no. Minnesota faces a rare left-handed starter in their current marathon of 16 straight days of action. Southpaws have generally posed as their weakness, though Kolby Allard presents a little more mystery than the average starting pitcher. As for the Braves’ handedness splits, well, they smack pretty much everyone around. However, their marks drop around 25% against right-handed pitching compared to lefties. That said, they have feasted on pretty much everyone this past week without remorse.
K Maeda (R) vs. K Allard (L)
The starting pitching situation this afternoon is interesting to say the least. Former Braves first-round pick Kolby Allard dons an Atlanta uniform after four tough seasons in Texas. He’ll make his season debut after a pair of decent rehab starts in AAA. His 4.32 xFIP in just 6.2 innings is right around expectation for the 2023 season in spite of him posting 4.96 or higher ERAs each year in Texas. It is truly difficult to profile the 25-year-old lefty due to his lack of MLB experience and up-and-down campaigns. If anything, he throws strikes and lets the defense behind him clean things up. Fortunately the Braves pack a solid fielding unit and one of the best bullpens in the league. And after two straight days of rest for the back half of the Atlanta bullpen, Brian Snitker can confidently turn to this group in the 4th or 5th inning.
Allard’s counterpart is shrouded in a bit of mystery as well. Kenta Maeda spent the 2022 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery then ran into tough sledding in his April return. Last week’s emergence from the IL was victorious in Detroit, though Atlanta presents an entirely different challenge. Much like Allard, Maeda throws plenty of strikes and generally keeps the ball on the ground. That’s a sound strategy with Minnesota’s quality defense behind him. Another similarity between today’s starters is the expectation for limited innings. Rocco Baldelli would probably be satisfied with five decent innings from Maeda before turning to the bullpen. He too has a back half that is generally rested and available if Kenta keeps the contest close.
WAGER: Under 10 -115 (1u)
Both teams have an off day tomorrow, which supports the thesis that both managers will not be shy with their quality relievers. Will any key players get an additional rest day today? That’s yet to be seen but any absences would benefit the under. There’s decent hitting weather in the ATL and the game total of 10 reflects lesser quality starting pitching when compared to the first two games of this series (Ryan/Elder, Gray/Strider). So the extra run+ above those games’ totals makes sense from the bookmakers’ perspective. All told, this is an under play for me – one that should be on the sweaty side with this productive Braves lineup menacing the Twins pitchers.
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com: your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball perspectives and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
