Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 14-8
Week 6 Recap:
A solid 3-1 weekend improved our yearly mark to 14-8 as those units continue to increase. As is the game of football, sports betting is also a game of inches, which we had work in our favor, and against us last week. The gamling mojo was on our side with our “square” bet taking the Cowboys -3.5 on the road in New England. With the game headed to overtime, coming away with a walkoff TD, when the Cowboys were in field goal range is definitely a fortunate break for us. On the flip side, after winning both the team total over with the Chiefs, and a leg of a teaser with them, our second leg of the teaser fell short, by literal inches when Josh Allen slipped and couldn’t convert a 4th down against the Titans. The Bills did also get over their team total, with got us our third victory, guaranteeing a winning weekend. As we often do, our bets were a little unconventional, and so was week 6 in the NFL betting landscape. Most favorites covered, which made for a good weekend for the public.
Week 7 Picks:
The sportsbooks took about as bad of a beating as they’ve taken in recent history, or maybe longer, on Sunday with nearly all favorites covering. In most things, gambling included, you can always count on regression occurring no matter which direction things are going. After last week’s publicly bet favorites getting paid, it almost seems certain that the casinos are going to rebound, which would mean a lot of underdog covers. No matter what system you’re using to handicap your wagers, this seems like something that really needs to be factored in for week seven. If there’s ever been a weekend to fade the public, this seems to be it. With that in mind, we settled on just a total of three bets for week seven. Strategically placing one repeat team total over, backing a struggling underdog, and playing a usual teaser. Good luck if you’re tailing!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
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Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-2)
Sunday October 24th
1:00pm
CBS
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under 57 (-110)
If you’re a fan of points and offensive fireworks, you’re going to want to tune in when the Chiefs and Titans face each other this Sunday. The total for the game is opened at 56.5 and is slowly continuing to rise. Kansas City got back on the tracks with a strong second half performance against Washington, and the Titans got an impressive comeback win against the Buffalo Bills in prime time a week ago. Both defenses have struggled in the early going, while the offenses continue to carry the burden for each team’s respective successes.
Checking the highlights or media snippets might lead you to believe that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is really having a poor start to his season. He has had a few more uncharacteristic mistakes than we’re accustomed to, but overall he’s actually playing some really great football, outside of his performance against the Buffalo Bills. Things definitely line up nicely for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense against a Titans defense that has struggled, particularly against the pass. A combination of missed assignments, and lack of depth in the Tennessee secondary is going to really be a problem when trying to contain Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs have gotten a recent boost with some better play from Mecole Hardman and their complimentary receivers as well. After a few weeks to get settled in, this could be a spot where we see a little more of Josh Gordon integrating into the offense as well. Teams really can’t afford to bring extra pressure against Mahomes unless they’re guaranteed to get home, which is something that definitely in the case for the Titans. They’ll need to hope their front four can generate some pressure and continue some of the turnover troubles for the KC offense.
Derrick Henry is doing some things that are impressive, even by the high bar that he has set throughout his NFL career. He’s set for another big day when he faces a Chiefs defense that rivals his own defense for one of the worst in the league. The Chiefs need defensive tackle Chris Jones back in their lineup desperately, to help contain the powerful Henry and Titan running game. The good news is he is tracking towards playing for the first time in three weeks which should give them a boost. With Henry though, it’s a basic necessity to have safety help in the box which means quarterback Ryan Tannehill needs to take advantage of a soft secondary. That would be a fairly simple ask, if A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are good to go at receiver. Neither practiced on Thursday, so watching their status is going to be a key for this ballgame. Without those two, the Titans won’t be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, no matter what Derrick Henry can do. Tennessee will also be without starting left tackle Taylor Lewan who is in concussion protocol.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games for the Chiefs
– The total has gone over in 4 or the last 5 games for the Titans
– The total has gone over in 12 of the last 18 home games for the Titans
For both football teams, it’s a story of strength versus weakness as their offenses have big mismatches against the opposing defenses. We’re expecting a lot of points as a whole, but our play is not taking the over. We’re a little concerned with both the injuries for Tennessee, and a potential letdown after their huge Monday night win. In fact, we’re expecting and hoping for a little letdown from the Titans, on the defensive side of the ball. By playing just the Chiefs team total over, we take away the square spread play that also factors in the KC defense. We’re also taking out the possibility that the Titans injuries keep them held down, and they don’t carry their weight with the total. We’re going to the well once again, let’s see if we can get some more water with this Kansas City offense.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs – Team Total Over 30.5
Chiefs 35, Titans 24
New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks
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New Orleans Saints (3-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-4)
Monday October 25th
8:15pm
ESPN
Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
New Orleans Saints -5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
ESPN was probably not expecting to see Geno Smith, and maybe not even Jameis Winston when Monday Night Football got their schedule release before the season. Here we are with two veteran quarterbacks playing in what could end up being a really instrumental game in the NFC standings. The game has some importance for the Saints, but it’s really the Seahawks that need to find a way to win if they want to stay in the mix until they can get Russell Wilson back behind center.
The new era of New Orleans Saints offense has been somewhat lackluster for Sean Payton and Jameis Winston. There have certainly been some bright spots, and it hasn’t been terrible, but the explosiveness we’ve become accustomed to just hasn’t been there yet. The lack of weapons in the passing game is certainly a factor, and that has to make the Seattle defense breathe a little easier for this contest. The Seahawks secondary has given up so many big plays, and often seems overmatched against elite wide receivers. With Michael Thomas not on the field, the Saints may not be able to exploit that Seahawk defense as much as some other teams have this year. Alvin Kamara will serve as the cornerstone of the offensive gameplan, and how well he can get the run game, or short passing game going will be a key. The Saints still have some injuries on the offensive line which should also help a Seahawks front seven that has also been a liability at times. As we dive into the quarterback play, we have to give Jameis Winston some credit for at least taking decent care of the football after leading the league in picks in his previous stop in Tampa. Payton really seems to be holding him back a bit, and it’s basically worked, so it’s tough to argue with that approach. Seattle needs to find a way to create some pressure and force Winston into making some mistakes. The 12th man road environment will be rocking as it always is, and they could help a defense that needs it.
Start number two for Geno Smith in his relief duty won’t be an easy one against a tough New Orleans defense. It’s unlikely that he’ll get a lot of help from backup running back Alex Collins running into a stingy Saints unit that’s allowing only 3.3 yards per carry so far this season. Although Smith is not a natural scrambler, he may need to get out of the pocket and use his legs in this game. Of course his best bet is going to be trying to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. One of those guys is going to get matched up with a rejuvenated Marshon Lattimore, who is putting together a really nice season. Smith is a veteran, so don’t be surprised if he goes the opposite direction of Lattimore during this game. As always, watch the trenches between the Seahawks offensive line and Saints defensive line. When the Saints defensive line is on their game, this defense is really good. If the Hawks’ can neutralize them a bit, it’ll really help their chances of pulling off the home upset.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks are 5-2 straight up in their last 7 games vs. the Saints
The New Orleans Saints are a better football team from top to bottom when you compare them to the Seattle Seahawks. The question is, just how much better are they? We’re in the camp that they’re not worthy of being 5 point road favorites, in a hostile environment during a primetime game. Seattle played hard and they trust Geno Smith, which helped them stay in the game last week against the Steelers. This game really is crucial for the hopes of the Seahawks and we’re anticipating they put it all on the line for the nation to watch. Our play here also follows our opening monologue which believes a sportsbook rebound. Although early signs don’t point to a huge discrepancy in money posted, it is leaning and will lean towards money on the visitors. We’re fading the public on this one and hoping to cash in along with the casino.
BetCrushers Take: Seattle Seahawks +5
Saints 23, Seahawks 20
Teaser Bet
Washington Football Team vs. Green Bay Packers
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
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and 
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Washington Football Team (2-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-1)
Sunday October 25th
1:00pm
FOX
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -8 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
New York Jets (1-4) vs. New England Patriots (2-4)
Sunday October 25th
1:00pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -7 (-105)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
The Washington Football Team is still trying to find their footing in the 2021 season, and have a tall task ahead of them as they head into Lambeau Field to face the Packers. In the AFC, the New York Jets head up the road to take on division rival New England Patriots, in a battle of rookie quarterbacks. As of week number 7, only one of these teams, Green Bay, is predicted to make the playoffs. Can Washington or either of the AFC East squads get on a run and have a shot at the postseason?
Whenever you’re playing with a backup quarterback, there’s going to be an adjustment and some challenges. That’s what’s been going on for Washington as Taylor Heinicke has not been able to give his team a consistent chance to win each weekend. The young QB has made some nice plays, but hasn’t been able to get the offense moving or the ball to his playmakers like Terry McLaurin. He’s looked a little lost without his security blanket of tight end Logan Thomas, and their running game hasn’t been as productive as they have wanted. It won’t get any easier against a Green Bay defense that has played well in their home stadium. The team could be without Preston Smith, so a lack of pass rush could help Heinicke settle in a bit. Even with the Green Bay injuries it’s really tough to see Washington doing too much in this game offensively unless it ends up being an all out shootout. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has been a man on a mission since Green Bay’s week one debacle against the Saints. The Packers like to start their offense with the running game, but this game is all about Rodgers and the passing attack. Despite their vaunted front four, Washington has not been able to stop anyone throwing the football. For a cerebral quarterback like Rodgers, he should have no trouble finding the open receivers and getting the Pack down the field. This could be a big game situation for Davante Adams, even more than usual.
In the AFC contest it’s all eyes on the rookie quarterbacks as Zach Wilson tries to get the best of a Belichick defense. Unless you’re new to watching the NFL, you know that Wilson could be in for a long day becoming another victim of the New England defensive puzzle. The key for Wilson and the Jets will be taking care of the ball, something that is not a guarantee against the NE veteran secondary. Even though the the Patriots have just been mediocre stopping the run, look for Belichick to take away an equally average running game and putting the ball into Wilson’s hands. For Mac Jones, ball security will also be important, but he has some advantage over his rookie counterpart in this game. First, he’s playing at home so he won’t need to battle the crowd noise, or inexperience of playing in Gillette Stadium. Secondly, he will have the benefit of a good running game as Damien Harris has started to prove himself as a quality starting running back around the league. The Jets haven’t been terrible stopping the run, but with C.J. Mosley hobbled, the Jets front seven is at a disadvantage against a quality offensive line for the Patriots. As many expected, Jones has been the most “NFL ready” quarterback and he’s proven that with a ridiculously high completion percentage for a rookie. If the Pats’ can contain the pass rush Jones should have another productive afternoon throwing the football. The most interesting question in this matchup is really whether or not Wilson versus Jones will be the first in a long rivalry, or if one or both will fizzle out in the league?
Key Stats and Trends
– Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– Washington is 0-5 straight up in their last 5 games playing at the Packers
– The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Packers are 16-2 straight up in their last 18 games at home
– The Jets are 3-17 in their last 20 games
– The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Jets are 0-10 straight up in their last 10 games at playing at the Patriots
If you believe in trends at all, then you’re not sweating this teaser too much. We all know the “Any Given Sunday” mantra, so this is certainly not the proverbial lock. But we’re also getting a near perfect tease with two home teams getting through the key number of three. We also have the better quarterbacks, clearly in Green Bay, maybe more slightly in New England. In all reality, the Green Bay teaser seems like a near can’t miss so you can certainly add 6 points anywhere you’d like. We’re adding them with New England and hoping to get back on our teaser winning streak after last week’s loss.
