We made it through the offseason. We made it through six grueling Divisional Previews. Now it’s showtime. Shameless plug: visit our MLB page to check out the six preview articles and futures positions. March 30th is in sight and we have your 2023 Opening Day handicapping covered with a quick rundown of all 15 games – along with a few wagers in hand. Then we’ll be back to kick off the 5th Annual MLB Morning Breakdown with a featured handicap or two for Friday’s small slate. BOL this season!
ATLANTA BRAVES @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS – 1:05 ET (ATL -250, 8)
The odds are certainly stacked against the Washington Nationals as they usher in the 2023 MLB season by hosting the defending NL East champions. Sure, the Atlanta Braves are without Gold Glove All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson but all hands are on deck otherwise. The cool, clear weather on Opening Day could help the Nats keep things closer than would a muggy day on the Anacostia River. But it won’t do away with the wide gap in offensive efficiency between the two teams. Then you factor how each lineup is suited against left-handed pitching and the differential grows closer to 20%.
While the Nats continue to rebuild their position player corps with young talent like CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, and Luis Garcia, they’ve taken in several veterans looking to keep their careers afloat. Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario, and Corey Dickerson are prime examples. Unfortunately for them, Atlanta’s lineup returns an All-Star – and Rookie of the Year – studded lineup that figures to be one of the best against southpaws again this season. In terms of fielding, someone relying heavily on zone rating could argue that the Braves are not head-and-shoulders better than the Nationals. But as far as I am concerned, Atlanta holds a firm edge in this area even after losing Swanson.
M Fried (L) vs. P Corbin (L)
And things do not get better for Washington on the mound. Adding insult to injury – i.e. losing top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli to Tommy John surgery last week – is having to run Patrick Corbin out as their Opening Day starter for the second year in a row. Corbin lost most of his swing-and-miss ability after the Nats’ magical World Series run in 2019. Now the 33-year-old lefty is a mid-4.00s FIP contact pitcher who gives up a little too much hard contact. Sub-20% Ks and greater than 40% hard contact is a terrible recipe to cook with against the Braves.
Opposing Corbin is Max Fried in his third straight Opening Day start after a career-best 2022. The 29-year-old set personal highs in innings (185.1), walk rate (4.4%), ERA (2.48), and FIP (2.70). Also a contact-oriented pitcher, Fried boasts five quality pitches that helped deliver 50%+ ground ball rates in each of his big league seasons while suppressing hard contact. Spring Training went well for the Braves’ ace and all systems are a go for 5+ innings Thursday afternoon. He’ll turn the ball over to one of the stoutest bullpens out there, though Raisel Iglesias is out to begin the season. Still, the Nationals bullpen figures to be about three-quarters of a run worse in the absence of true high-leverage relievers, and more so if Corbin cannot make it through the 5th inning.
WAGER: Braves RL -140 (2u)
Nothing like starting the season off with massive chalk. I’ve wrestled with moving away from run lines the last season or two but here we are. -240 on the money line or -140 run line is as steep of a price I am willing to lay on this game despite the significant mismatch. Regardless, I have 2 units at risk on a big run line favorite…what could possibly go wrong?
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ NEW YORK YANKEES – 1:05 ET (NYY -185, 7.5)
The first interleague battle of the season fires up in the Bronx with the San Francisco Giants in town. As good as the Yankees’ lineup has been for the last six years, their offense would be considerably more muted without Aaron Judge playing at an MVP level. And Matt Carpenter’s insane numbers in the dog days of summer certainly did not hurt. After correcting for Judge coming down a bit from his 11.4-WAR high, I still have this lineup as a top five group despite injury concerns with Harrison Bader, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton.
Compare that to the Giants’ lefty-heavy lineup featuring Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, and Michael Conforto that should manage to be more respectable after declining significantly last season. Not having Mitch Haniger ready to roll is less of a concern with a righty on the mound and Pederson in the lineup though. Yet they still fall short of the Yankees by close to 10% on offense and yield significantly in the field, especially behind the plate. Much like the Braves-Nationals matchup, price is everything when evaluating mismatched clubs.
L Webb (R) vs. G Cole (R)
Keeping things tight on the mound helps San Francisco’s cause. In my eyes, Logan Webb does not give much ground to accomplished veteran Gerrit Cole. Webb’s prowess in keeping the ball on the ground via a strong sinker helped him stretch out to an impressive 192.1 innings last season. And I don’t have much of an argument for a different outlook in 2023. We’ll see if the defense behind him is up for the challenge though. Five scoreless innings in his last Spring Training outing provides confidence in handicapping a 5-6 inning outing to start the season.
Gerrit Cole’s fourth straight Opening Day start also has 5+ inning potential against a manageable Giants lineup. Last season’s start was sluggish, at best, for the 32-year-old but business quickly picked up for the veteran. A 2.77 xFIP and SIERA speak to a rebound back around the 3.00 FIP mark, though I make these two starters much closer for Thursday’s contest. Temps in the mid-40s and wind that could blow out to right make this more of a who can chain together enough action to score kind of affair.
I talked about the Yankees bullpen’s decline a little bit in our AL East preview. While it’s still a top-half group, I am on the fence about their middle relief effectiveness – not unlike the Giants. Both have quality back end arms but the question marks leading up to the final innings are something to monitor in the early months. Reinforcements such as the injured Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trivino will eventually be factors for the Yanks and should be monitored. No strong opinion on the side or total here.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ BOSTON RED SOX – 2:10 ET (BOS -120, 9)
Similar weather impacts this AL East battle between the rising Orioles and a Red Sox club looking to get back on track. In terms of watchability, at least the matchup is much more balanced than what is expected in New York and Washington, D.C. So what about the personnel? I made minimal offseason adjustments for both teams’ position player groups for a variety of reasons, and my handicap for the opener reflects much of the lineups’ parity. Adjust the lineups for handedness splits and things get even tighter.
Both clubs approach 2023 with optimism for their top prospects paying instant dividends. Baltimore infielder Gunnar Henderson nails down the open third base position while Boston’s Triston Casas adds a legitimate threat against right-handed pitching. At least when compared to Bobby Dalbec, who could thrive in a platoon role. Casas’ more robust Spring Training points to a quicker start out of the gates but it is truly anyone’s guess how that pans out on Thursday. I’m not sure that splitting hairs with game #1 of 162 will make my handicap much stronger, especially with evaluation pending for Boston’s newest additions Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, and Adam Duvall.
K Gibson (R) vs. C. Kluber (R)
Things get funny with the starting pitching matchup…it’s essentially the same guy on each side. There’s a better chance for Kyle Gibson to go 5+ innings given Corey Kluber’s recent history, though both are slotted as low-to-mid-4.00 FIP veterans hanging around the 20% strikeout mark. But I have Kluber with a wider range of outcomes compared to be Gibson. Maybe it’s a cop out on my part, but how deep do you want to get with a mirror match of starters? Then the pitching breakdown becomes more of a bullpen evaluation if you buy my perspective.
I have these two relief units moving in opposite directions after the offseason. Sure, expectations for Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin should be muted but they have company with back-end options John Schreiber and lefty specialist Richard Bleier. They will miss southpaw Joely Rodriguez in the opening part of the season though. These improvements plus some old fashioned addition by subtraction puts the group in an arguably better position than Baltimore. Turns out O’s closer Felix Bautista is ready to roll after a late start to spring due to knee injury rehab – a significant positive for them. I am less convinced with Mychal Givens and Cionel Perez as Bautista’s setup men though. In a contest that sets up to be evenly matched with plenty of bullpen action, the edge shifts to Boston as the game rolls along.
WAGER: Under 9 +100 (2u)
I’m in the 8.2 – 8.6 run range on this game primarily due to Opening Day conditions at Fenway Park. If the stiff crosswind shifts out towards right on gameday, however, the under could be in serious jeopardy. Gibson/Kluber does not inspire a ton of confidence with an under ticket but Mother Nature should be our friend.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ CHICAGO CUBS – 2:20 ET (MIL -140)
It’s only fitting that Opening Day at Wrigley Field comes with temps in the low 40s and steady wind. At least that’s the way things are looking at the moment – and a prime reason why I hesitate to wager on Cubs home games. Chicago faces a tough character to start the 2023 season against too: 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. With the breadth of roster turnover the Cubbies have undergone it probably doesn’t matter that they roughed up Burnes last year in this position (5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R). This new-look roster now features Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Edwin Rios, and Tucker Barnhart. Yet the only key adjustment I made this offseason was to their fielding.
I did adjust the Brewers’ offense down several percent after an uncharacteristically successful season at the plate. Milwaukee delivered the third-most home runs – up there with teams like the Astros and Dodgers – on the backs of career years from Hunter Renfroe, Kolten Wong, and Rowdy Tellez. Even Keston Hiura, who did not make the 26-man roster out of camp, crushed 14 homers in a half season of work. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty in the Brew Crew’s tank after reloading with Jesse Winker and William Contreras. It should be enough to earn an offensive edge of several percent over the Cubs as their lineup is geared much more towards hitting against right-handers. Note that both teams are missing corner outfielders: Seiya Suzuki for Chicago and Tyrone Taylor for Milwaukee.
C Burnes (R) vs. M Stroman (R)
Injures aside, right-hander Marcus Stroman had a nice start to his Chicago tenure with his usual 50% ground ball rate and mid-3.00s ERA, FIP, and xFIP. That puts Milwaukee in a position of grinding out some small ball. Unless the wind shifts and fly balls become advantageous all of a sudden. That’s the beauty of Wrigley. Likewise, Corbin Burnes takes his 30%+ strikeout rate and sub-40% hard hit rate into another season of high expectations. With the frigid temps hindering both lineups, the gap between these two starters could shrink down to a half-run as opposed to three-quarters or greater if conditions were more accommodating.
Unless Burnes stumbles again on Opening Day, I have him penciled in around 6.0 IP before handing the game over to a once-formidable bullpen. It still has one of the tougher closers in the league, Devin Williams, but lacks the punch that can truly shorten a game. Yet Milwaukee’s bullpen figures to hold a small advantage over the Cubs’ unit, especially if they will be asked to work an extra inning or so. But the differential between these two relief corps is less than the starters’. Job #1 for the Cubbies: get Corbin Burnes out of the game! Should be a good battle between familiar foes, but I’ll gladly pass on Opening Day at Wrigley Field.
DETROIT TIGERS @ TAMPA BAY RAYS – 3:10 ET (TBR -230, 7)
The 9th Wonder of the World, Tropicana Field, hosts the lone 3:00 ET game between a Tigers club looking to pull themselves off the mat and a Rays team on a mission to sneak up on the Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL East. Admittedly, my eyes were a little too big back in January when I took Tampa Bay’s over 88 wins future. Aside from losing Ji-Man Choi and longtime centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Cash’s squad returns a very competent lineup that fields well. Yandy Diaz’ rock solid bat needs help though.
That’s where the comeback efforts of middle infielders Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe come in. Tampa is configured to grind at the pitcher-friendly Trop with a high-OBP lineup that only goes as far as the top half can take them. Unless former Tiger Isaac Paredes parlays last season’s boom-or-bust into 20 more points of average and slugging. It’s players like him who help give Tampa a bump against left-handers like Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez.
Two Can Play At That Game
Don’t sleep on a Tigers lineup that continued to be lopsided against southpaws. Although this year’s lineup starts the season a little lefty heavy, I don’t think you can leave your guard down when handicapping this platoon-heavy team. Of course I fell into the trap of expecting much more at the plate with Detroit last year as key prospect Spencer Torkelson simply could not put it together in the majors. This roster saw a ton of turnover in the offseason, which might not be the worst thing. Sure, the Tigers might miss out on the bounceback seasons of guys like Jeimer Candelario, Victor Reyes, or the Castros. But a healthy Austin Meadows and another step forward from rookie Riley Greene could be the nudges this down-and-out club needs in 2023.
E Rodriguez (L) vs. McClanahan (L)
That might be easier said than done on Opening Day with AL Cy Young Award finalist Shane McClanahan on the bump. Year two for the 25-year-old lefty was even better than an impressive rookie campaign – just the way you would draw it up. Strikeouts, ground balls, and great command got him into the Cy Young conversation. And that’s what we expect to see on Thursday. However, as ready as he may be to tackle the 2023 season, Kevin Cash likely treats his ace carefully to begin the season after mild work this spring. So I won’t be expectign one of McClanahan’s 6+ inning affairs in this one by any means.
Fellow lefty Eduardo Rodriguez gets the nod from AJ Hinch after a very bizarre Tigers debut. Expectations to shave one-half to three-quarters of a run from his FIP start right now with a average-ish Tampa Bay lineup. Granted, it is a righty-heavy lineup that could keep E-Rod’s hands full before turning things over to an unmoored bullpen with a ton of question marks. Detroit’s back end pales in comparison to the Rays’ stout group of Fairbanks, Adam, and Beeks. Realistically, it is the middle relief that could be the biggest differentiator in this contest with modest expectations for both starters’ duration Thursday afternoon. Tampa is priced a little high for my taste and I struggle backing Detroit below 2/1 here.
PHILADEPHIA PHILLIES @ TEXAS RANGERS – 4:05 ET (TEX -130, 6.5)
After bulking up their infield in 2022, the Texas Rangers stood pat this offseason with their position players. They’re stacked top three of Semien, Seager, and Lowe will be called upon to lead a mix of fill-in veterans like Robbie Grossman and Brad Miller with younger players Josh Jung and Bubba Thompson. I’m in wait and see mode with this lineup after a huge step forward last year though. Struggling against right-handed pitching below the top of the lineup should persist with a quality ace like Aaron Nola on the mound too.
That’s not to say that the Harper- and Hoskins-less Phillies lineup is in its best form either. Granted, I still have them about 10% higher than Texas against righties. Kyle Schwarber, Darick Hall, and the Phils’ top-tier hitters more immune to handedness splits like JT Realmuto and Trea Turner have a lot to with that. There’s still plenty of gas in the Philly tank to make deGrom work and get into the bullpen. Just don’t overlook some lingering defensive deficiencies, although having Turner and Brandon Marsh out there should help the cause.
A Nola (R) vs. J deGrom (R)
It’s no secret that Jacob deGrom is one of the few truly elite starting pitchers night in and night out. When he’s not on the IL, of course. The 34-year-old failed to reach the 100-inning mark the last couple seasons, dampening his outlook for all of 2023. On the mound, however, opposing lineups are posed with an alternate objective: make the guy work and get to the bullpen. That strategy is even more appropriate with the Rangers’ bottom-third group being much less potent than his former club’s relief unit. deGrom’s slow ramp-up this Spring will handcuff Bruce Bochy in the way their new ace is handled on Thursday.
Squaring off against deGrom is the bedrock of Philadelphia’s rotation, Aaron Nola, who will make his sixth straight Opening Day start. His spring was fairly nondescript after completing his third 200+ inning season – one that featured his best K/BB ratio (8.10) and a paltry 31.6% hard hit rate. Yet Nola operates at a disadvantage to his former NL East counterpart. While I have both starters making it through the 5th inning, Aaron is the one with slightly longer runway against a subpar righty-hitting Rangers lineup.
Turn a close game over to one of the better bullpens in the MLB and the Phillies can flip a disadvantageous situation into a good underdog play, especially if Texas’ bullpen has to work four full innings. That shaves around 9% off of the Rangers’ advantage compared to when deGrom is in the game. At this moment the sides are priced well enough for me to stay away, however, this low total is interesting given the potential for a short deGrom start.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ CINCINNATI REDS – 4:10 ET (CIN -140, 8.5)
This one hits close to home for a couple of reasons. I’m long on Pittsburgh with an over 62.5 wins ticket while being a lifelong Cincinnati Reds fan. Both teams shook their lineups up enough for me to upgrade certain aspects of their offenses and slight bumps to both defenses. They are still well below the curve though. While the Reds are still trying to find the right mix in the outfield, veteran Wil Myers brings a more reliable bat to the table while younger players like Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, and Will Benson try to make their marks in the MLB. Although Joey Votto will start the season on the IL, the club is relatively healthy with Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India in the top half of the lineup. This is India’s bounceback season, right?
Pittsburgh did enough to supplement its younger crop of talent, bringing in Ji-Man Choi to add actual positive value to first base and the beloved Andrew McCutcheon to build depth in the outfield. And somehow they still have dynamic center fielder Bryan Reynolds in the heart of the lineup alongside freakish shortstop Oneil Cruz and all of his questions that need answered. Plenty of questions concern aging veteran DH Carlos Santana, second base, and catcher. Yet it’s defensive cornerstones Reynolds and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes who help give the Bucs a firm fielding edge over the Redlegs.
M Keller (R) vs. H Greene (R)
Thursday’s starting pitchers carry significantly different styles into the contest. Hunter Greene’s fire stacked up against Mitch Keller’s ice creates an overlap between their expected ranges, though I give Greene about a quarter-run advantage in their base case scenarios. Cincinnati’s second-year starter carries a potent fastball-slider combo into a matchup with a Pirates lineup that struck out at the second-highest clip last season. So it becomes a matter of whether Hunter can keep his pitch count down and not give up the long ball in the decent weather along the Ohio River.
Keller, on the other hand, earned his first Opening Day start not only in the absence of another reasonable alternative but due to his putting everything together last season. The 26-year-old earned the nod by making deeper starts – creating a very lucrative situation for a couple months last year – by virtue of adopting a quality sinker that enabled him to produce about 9% more ground ball contact and shave down a former liability: hard contact. There are clear pros and cons with both of Thursday’s starters, creating an interesting win probability straddle in the 47-53% range. In other words, neither team deserves to be a strong favorite in this one.
And the bullpens are testament to that. Aside from closers David Bednar and Alexis Diaz, these teams’ relievers will make their fans – and bettors – run through a lot of heartburn medicine this year. Whether we see it manifest in innings 6 through 9 in the opener, prepare for plenty of rounds of Russian roulette when the starters hand over the ball. Bullpens are a luxury for non-contending teams like these, so what else do we expect?
WAGER: Pirates +119 (1.5u)
It is not the best feeling in the world to take some early bites on Pittsburgh only to see CRIS open at +125. So here I am with three Pirates tickets at +115, +117, and +125 for a total of 1.5 units at risk. This certainly won’t be the last time I bet against my Redlegs, though I will be rooting for them to start the season undefeated.
COLORADO ROCKIES @ SAN DIEGO PADRES – 4:10 ET (SDP -200, 7.5)
Much like the opener in Washington, D.C., the NL West features a battle of haves and have-nots. My position on the Padres to win the division leans heavily on it being a two-horse race with the Dodgers, who may have left the back door open. It’s going to take this All-Star caliber lineup actually realizing its potential to get there. It’s looking like Juan Soto is good to go but outfielder Adam Engel’s IL stint puts someone like David Dahl in right field. Other than questions regarding what Matt Carpenter has to offer and filling right field hole, San Diego poses a firm 7-8% offensive edge in this situation.
I’m not on the lookout for a scoring explosion Thursday. Cooler temps with an ongoing threat of light rain throughout the afternoon should affect scoring along with Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly configuration. If there is any saving grace for the Rockies away from Coors Field, it’s catching a left-handed starter. Former Padre Jurickson Profar joins the contingent of Kris Bryant, CJ Cron, and Yonathan Daza who can make things more difficult on southpaw pitchers. Otherwise, the Rockies are likely to continue struggling against righties this season.
G Marquez (R) vs. B Snell (L)
Our season preview for Colorado weighed the odds of a German Marquez rebound, which makes sense after a 4.71 FIP/4.02 xFIP letdown year. We’ll get an early indication against a tough Padres lineup if the veteran’s fastball/sinker/slider is coming back to life this season. It’s the bloated hard contact that concerns me with Marquez in this or any of his first few starts. He goes toe to toe with Blake Snell, who pulled off a little turnaround of his own in 2022. Even though Snell is probable to exit Thursday’s game prior to Marquez, I give the lefty a solid edge in this one. If we only knew when the guy was going to flake out and lose his command! That sort of scenario in one of his five innings could draw the gap between them a little close for comfort.
The ace up manager Bob Melvin’s sleeve is a stocked high-leverage bullpen group ready to stop the bleeding. An early hook of Snell weakens the Padres’ advantage with middle relief that I’m not confident in yet. San Diego’s saving grace in this regard comes down to a Colorado bullpen with so many question marks in front of closer Daniel Bard. It’s a big reason why my full game odds to win are much tighter than those of the first five innings. Once again, the favorite is too rich for my blood and not enough in return on the dog. Losing setup man Robert Suarez to the IL is something to keep in mind through the weekend and beyond.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – 4:10 ET (TOR -115, 7.5)
One of several Opening Day matchups between playoff contenders, this battle of aggressive backyard birds will be played under sunny skies with a strong crosswind forecasted at this point. Be sure to check wind vectors on gameday if you’re on the fence with how to play this one – a change in direction could impact totals quite a bit. My big picture outlook for these two offenses is more about the Cardinals’ young crop offsetting lost production elsewhere than it is injury risk to Toronto’s ironmen in game #1 of the long season.
Then you have the matter of the Blue Jays bolstering their defense to the point where they are poised to close the gap on St. Louis’ perennially elite fielding. With two upper-third defenses on the field, the differential in individual games like this one is much more suppressed. And the impact that it has should be weighted much less than batting anyhow. Just don’t overlook the small edge that good fielding in its various forms plays into handicapping. Run prevention is more than just a pitching thing, ya know.
A Manoah (R) vs. M Mikolas (R)
Toronto’s edge at the plate widens by a few percent with a pair of right-handed starters on the mound. These aren’t ordinary run-of-the-mill righties though. Plus Alek Manoah’s blood will be pumping as he gets his first MLB Opening Day start. Who can blame manager John Schneider for jumping Manoah up the ranks after the 25-year-old grew significantly after an impressive 2021 rookie debut? The kid’s stuff is legit and I can rationalize his 5% year-over-year strikeout rate decline as a tradeoff to jumping up to nearly 200 innings. That additional 85 innings was a ton of added value to the team. But we also saw Alek’s xFIP rise due to those lost strikeouts, and some of us have to wonder if BABIP regression will kick in this season. Maybe he is a sub-.250 guy after all.
So I have to grade him and Miles Mikolas closely going into their first starts of the regular season. Miles is a little bit behind his counterpart this spring but has been nearly perfect otherwise. It’s a consideration why my projection for how deep they go Thursday is skewed more towards Manoah going into the 6th inning versus Mikolas. Regardless, the Cardinals’ starter caters quite well to the strong infield defense behind him as a ground ball pitcher. It’s all but a dead heat between these two with a nod toward Manoah for an anticipated deeper start.
WAGER: Blue Jays -105 (1.05u)
They’ll turn the ball over to their respective average-plus bullpens at some point. Romano/Swanson vs. Helsley/Gallegos is a tossup worthy of debate somewhere, though I appreciate the proven depth in the Blue Jays’ pen slightly better in aggregate. Both clubs obviously have their full complement of relievers in tact but the overall edge is a product of anticipating Manoah going deeper into the game. My goal was to split this position in half between full game and first half, though the latter may not come to fruition if Toronto has become the side of choice. I estimate about a 3% greater edge for Toronto in the first 5 innings and the market may as well.
MINNESOTA TWINS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS – 4:10 ET (MIN -140, 8.5)
Maybe I’m a little too high on Minnesota’s offense right out of the gates. Plus there is a little bit of heartburn that comes along with their lefty-heavy lineup relying on Joey Gallo and the unproven Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach with Jorge Polanco on the IL. Yet I still rate the Twins well on the positive side of neutral with a bias towards right-handed pitching. That’s after a slight adjustment downward this offseason too. Compare that to a young, promising Royals squad that ushered in a tidal wave of new talent in 2022. You better believe that this homegrown crop headed up by Witt, Melendez, Pasquantino, and Isbel have their sights set on a .500 season even if the bookmakers see them as a 70-win club.
K.C.’s youth movement earned them a several point adjustment upwards, especially against righties. However, the gap between the anticipated Opening Day lineups agnostic of the actual pitcher is still close to 10%. Handedness splits spread that out even more. And when it comes to preventing runs, the Twins have a very firm advantage that is further improved by the addition of veteran catcher Christian Vasquez. On the flip side, Kansas City experienced a win some, lose some tradeoff with anticipated improvement from Bobby Witt, Jr. that could help mitigate the loss of center fielder Michael A. Taylor to Minnesota.
P Lopez (R) vs. Z Greinke (R)
That’s not to say that grizzled veteran Zack Greinke won’t replicate his 1-run, 5.2-inning Opening Day start of a year ago. Granted, I recall that game being cold with swirling winds – a large departure from Thursday’s forecast of warm temps and a stiff breeze out to left. But Greinke’s successful against the Twins was followed up by 3+ runs in each of the next four starts against them. He’s wily yet still grades out as a low-to-mid-4.00 FIP contact pitcher that recently ventured into dangerous territory with hard contact.
Minnesota’s new ace Pablo Lopez came at the cost of losing infielder Luis Arraez. It was a swap that the market seemed to appreciate. Improving a key weakness by shedding excess strength is a good thing. Pablo thrives as a ground ball pitcher with just enough swing-and-miss stuff to be effective. So I have him a little over a half-run better than Greinke in the big picture. Two contact pitchers in a nice hitting environment presents an interesting opportunity with totals as well. Bullpens should come into play for 3+ innings, and truthfully, I don’t mind either unit. The edge goes to the Twins though as their back end of Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, and Jax is stacked higher than Barlow, Coleman, Garrett, and the enigmatic Aroldis Chapman.
WAGER: Twins -141 (2.5u)
Yep, another chalky position. My expectations for the Twins are high this season and this specific situation is fairly amenable to their lineup. That said, this young Kansas City club is poised to upset better teams throughout the season. Could this be one of them? Absolutely. Especially with favorable conditions for scoring, specifically for right-handed hitters. But my numbers show a 3-4% edge with Minnesota and I have to play it.
NEW YORK METS @ MIAMI MARLINS – 4:10 ET (NYM -125, 6.5)
On the whole, I have these two lineups generally headed toward each other in 2023. A little bit of a cool off from the Mets after their spectacular offensive season is part of the equation. The Marlins trading for Luis Arraez and getting Jazz Chisholm, Jr. back from an injury-shortened 2022 are key reasons for their upgrade. But we’re still talking about close to a 20% discrepancy between these two offenses. That’s tough to get over no matter who you have on the mound, right?
M Scherzer (R) vs. S Alcantara (R)
Yes, although this premier starting pitcher matchup is pure strength on strength. The next wave of elite starters headed up by reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara squares off against Max Scherzer and his career 70.3 WAR. Sandy leaves camp on a very high note, striking out 8 Astros in 3.0 innings last week. If he brings that sort of dominance on Opening Day, the first 5-6 innings of this contest could be much closer than the first 5 inning price implies. Mad Max’s tighter range of outcomes makes Alcantara the pivotal player here. That’s not necessarily breaking news.
Both starters have high potential to get through the 6th inning. Scherzer did as much in his 2022 Mets debut after working back from injury and Alcantara has proven to be a legitimate workhorse since coming on as a full time starter in 2019. The Edwin Diaz-less New York bullpen would appreciate a short afternoon, as would the back end-heavy Marlins unit. Maybe I am overly punitive of the Mets’ relief pitching situation without Diaz…maybe not. I am still hesitant to pull the trigger on the Mets at what appears to be a deal at -125 despite a clear offensive advantage. Is this a case of giving Sandy his due respect? Or might this be one of the cheaper prices we find the Mets in such a spot this season?
CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ HOUSTON ASTROS – 7:08 ET (HOU -155, 7.5)
A healthy White Sox lineup is a potent one…especially against a lefty like Framber Valdez. Chicago’s strength with this handedness split creates about a 1 run differential that could prove to be the key edge Thursday evening. Anderson, Robert, Vaughn, and Jimenez all have the skills to make Framber’s outing that much tougher. Now is the time for the ChiSox to make hay at the plate before any of their key personnel find their way onto the IL. But the fly in the ointment continues to be fielding. When compared to Houston’s top five defense, this is a significant underlying liability.
Losing Jose Altuve for a couple months and Michael Brantley not being ready for Opening Day diminishes the Astros’ potency by several percent. The advantage flips towards Chicago once you factor in splits with the injury impacts. Plus you can make the case for Yordan Alvarez being a little sluggish out of the gates with minimal live game action in Spring Training. Not to overemphasize his importance in a single game, but I’ll argue that a Yordan 0-fer takes the offensive edge completely away from Houston.
D Cease (R) vs. F Valdez (L)
Aside from defense, this game essentially becomes a tug of war between two powerful lineups, highly-effective bullpens, and top-tier starters. Chicago’s relief corps is five deep with high-leverage professionals while Liam Hendriks battles lymphoma and Garrett Crochet finishes rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Astros’ bullpen is stout from top to bottom as well. So this has the feel of a whoever has the lead going into the 7th inning type of game.
Dylan Cease’s masterful 2.20 ERA follow-up to his 2021 breakout challenges projections for a more modest season ahead. That’s a result of a 3.10 FIP/3.50 xFIP and a sudden 7.3% drop in hard contact. Even Cease himself admitted to struggling to locate his slider in a Cactus League start earlier this month. Keep in mind that same slider was a major element in frustrating opposing hitters last year. His counterpart Framber Valdez has more or less picked up where he left off last year this spring. Perhaps Framber gets a small edge with the potential to go deeper in this one, but these stocked bullpens lessen the impact of length. This truly comes down to which starter is sharper on Thursday with a money line price that begs you to take the dog.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ OAKLAND ATHLETICS – 10:07 ET (LAA -210, 7)
The Angels’ Shohei Ohtani rolls into Oakland on a high from his WBC performance to take on the AL West’s lost franchise. What a difference a few years make for the Athletics, who took advantage of the short 2020 season and won the division quite handily. Since then, it has been a painful ride. What to make of the front office scrambling the position player corps this offseason with veteran additions like Jace Peterson, Jesus Aguilar, and Aledmys Diaz? Maybe there are gains to be made on both sides of the ledger with this freshly-shuffled deck.
Compared to the Ohtani- and Trout-led Angels, however, there is still a sizable gap between these lineups. Missing Jared Walsh for the start of the season is a blow to the Angels’ improvement given the first baseman’s bounceback expectation. Whether the team as a whole figures out the hitting left-handed pitching thing has yet to be seen though. So the advantage bar for L.A.’s offense shrinks once the context of Thursday night’s affair is factored in appropriately.
S Ohtani (R) vs. K Muller (L)
Is Kyle Muller the type of southpaw that can thrive against the Angels? Manager Mark Kotsay gave the 25-year-old the start while Paul Blackburn works through a minor issue – a big departure from my forecast for Muller as the team’s fifth or sixth starter! I see enough confidence for a sub-4.00 FIP this season but his spring has been anything but smooth. And a short Opening Day outing only exposes the Athletics’ nebulous bullpen stocked with arms that have limited MLB experience.
The top shelf caliber of pitching that Shohei Ohtani brings to the mound is well understood at this point. But is he in a position to work past the 5th inning? That’s the main stumbling block with looking full game at a hefty price above -200. Plus I don’t have any more confidence in the Angels’ relief unit than I do Oakland’s. My perspective has not changed since evaluating this group in the AL West preview: “the high-leverage group is watered down and middle relievers are just above replacement level”. Anything more than 3 innings of this bullpen leaves the door open for the heavy dog to bring home the cash. I’m not there yet, but a return close to 2/1 is appealing given the Angels’ flaws.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS – 10:10 ET (LAD -170, 7)
We’ll see if manager Torey Lovullo loads up the lineup with righties going against a quality left-hander. Evan Longoria counters well off of the bench; Kyle Lewis is a little more of a question. The problem is that I’m not seeing much improvement from the Diamondbacks’ position players offensively or defensively, especially with Daulton Varsho now in Toronto. That’s a tough way to trade blows with a lineup that retained 3-4 All-Stars. My preseason outlook for the Dodgers’ offense is still a top five group despite losing a pair of Turners and a Lux. I’m at a 25%-30% differential between these two lineups in this scenario.
Z Gallen (R) vs. L Urias (L)
The counterpoint is appreciation for Zac Gallen. In fact, my baseline number for him edges out Julio Urias. They share a similar floor but Gallen has a tighter profile to work with, IMO. So I have no problem putting Zac toe-to-toe with Julio. Here’s the catch: handedness splits against these starters are more likely pull the Dodgers ahead of the D-backs at the plate. That’s the sort of thing that can justify laying a juicy price on a first 5 inning position. With Gallen’s success in both starts against L.A. last season (14.0 IP, 1 R, 4H), a first 5 inning under has potential and that is what I am waiting for.
This is a whole new Diamondbacks bullpen taking over too. It’s Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and a bunch of new dudes. Technically, Andrew Chafin is a familiar face in the desert, so there’s that. Given my handicap for Gallen in the 5+ innings range, this situation is not the worst for Arizona’s bullpen if the game is within reach. The Dodgers are still figuring out their bullpen arrangement – at least it seems that way to me – yet they can easily counter with a capable back end if needed.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ SEATTLE MARINERS – 10:10 ET (SEA -115, 6.5)
If you couldn’t tell by the graphic above, I make this is a very tight matchup between division contenders. And the lineups will have their hands full with the aces on the mound. I can’t be the only guy who thinks runs should be at a premium Thursday night, right? Plenty of elements stack up against run production: cool temperatures, a spacious park, and two 4-WAR starting pitchers that could easily go 6 innings.
Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez vaulted into the centerpiece role of this new-look lineup. Sure, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez are back with the 22-year-old phenom but this offseason was all about firming up weak spots. Kolten Wong’s surplus over Adam Frazier and adding Teoscar Hernandez’s bat helps stave off any big regression from a massive 2022 season. Cleveland presents a similar scenario where their key position player, Jose Ramirez, stays connected with several quality hitters and a little bit of new blood. Former Mariner Mike Zunino makes things interesting compared to Austin Hedges. And Josh Bell is head and shoulders above Franmil Reyes in the DH spot. This is also a scenario where the Guards’ strong suit against righties – Ramirez, Kwan, Bell, and Naylor – can level the playing field.
S Bieber (R) vs. L Castillo (R)
It’s also hard to make a strong case for either of these two starters over the other. A lot of the benchmarks I use and reliable projections pin Shane Bieber and Luis Castillo to a similar range. They’re highly effective ground ball pitchers with filthy sliders and good swing-and-miss stuff. Both appear to be healthy without any innings restrictions too. Barring a disastrous start, 5+ is a reasonable expectation with a handoff to quality relievers. And in the case of 3 inning workloads, both bullpens have their 7-8-9 complements locked and loaded. And while I personally prefer Clase/Karinchak over Sewald/Munoz, it’s hard to go wrong with either pair.
My radar was set to look dog and under in this game. But the opener at 6.5 or heavily-juiced 7 was right on so I had to pass. Cleveland is a live dog in a possible pitchers’ duel, though I need +110 or better to get there. This game won’t catch my money but it is one that I will stay up late to watch.
Heading for Home
Here we go…the 2023 season is finally upon us! Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – the landing spot for our daily baseball handicaps and division previews. Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your wagers!
