The NL Central is arguably one of the more disappointing divisions in MLB this season. Division-leader St. Louis is 9 games above .500 with Chicago and Milwaukee right on their heels. The Cardinals have been propelled to the top via a scorching hot run and now the Cubs and Brewers are locked up in a series that could keep them at bay.
Cincinnati has played themselves out of the NL Central post-ASB. Last night, Luis Castillo was dethroned in his kingdom and the Reds offense looked lifeless. Castillo and reliever Jared Hughes (who I called “dependable” yesterday) gave up 6 runs each, while Marquez was damn good. His road proficiency was a foundational assumption of yesterday’s handicapping but the Castillo meltdown was the outlier that manifested itself rather strongly.
The BetCrushers team drops 1.26 units on my strong call behind Castillo and the Reds. We’re still sporting a modest 6-4 mark since the ASB for +2.61 units. Just grinding out the MLB season for small profits until NFL fires up. Today, we return to the NL Central pressure cooker and look to the Brewers to keep the Cubs on ice…
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago wishes to regain a share of the division lead this evening against the Brewers, though they may need to find their offense first. They are 1-4 in their last 5 games and have lost 3 of those games by a single run. Their offense has been lagging recently as compared to where we expect them to be; scoring 4 or less runs in this 5-game stretch. To their credit, the Cubs pitching has been respectable and has not surrendered more than 5 earned runs in any of their last 9 games.
Milwaukee’s offense is on the upswing when viewing it through the lens that I handicap with. Their opportunities and scoring efficiency are above their typical marks. This is also apparent in the Milwaukee box scores: in their last 10 games, the Brewers have scored 5 or more runs in 9 of their last 10 games (last night’s 3-2 win being the exception).
Chicago’s bullpen has a decent edge over Milwaukee’s. This is an even bigger factor in handicapping tonight’s game since Kimbrel should be fresh and the Brewers threw Houser and Hader last night. Plus, they are without the injured Corbin Burnes. Things could get quite interesting with a tight game in the latter innings.
Lester vs. Anderson
Getting to the late innings ought to be worth watching. Jon Lester started this season on a decent run, including a 6.2-inning win against Milwaukee on May 12th. He gave up 9 hits, 6 Ks, 1 walk, and no runs to the Brewers.
I’ll argue that his May 12 domination of Milwaukee was the end of his great start to 2019. Since then, Lester has gotten knocked around in 12 outings. He’s posted a 1.48 WHIP, .343 BABIP, and 1.98 HR/9 since the Milwaukee start. The 35 year-old’s 5 road games in this stretch have gone for 27 innings with 38 hits, 22 earned runs, and 6 home runs.
Chase Anderson has been a steady starter for the Brew Crew after beginning the season in the bullpen. He’s given up 2 runs or less in his last 6 starts, including only 2 home runs and 9 earned runs over 31.1 innings. 5 innings is his typical workload so the bullpen will get the call early tonight.
Anderson pitched 3 innings against the Cubs back in April, so nothing strong to lean on with this particular matchup. Overall, he’s been good with home runs (1.19 HR/9) and has a solid 1.24 WHIP. His 42.8% fly ball rate is “meh” and 39.3% hard contact rate could be a slight issue against this Cubs lineup. His last 3 home starts (vs. SF, ATL, CIN) came with a 0.98 WHIP, 4 earned runs, 1 home run, and a 14 K/5 BB ratio over 16.1 innings. Despite these good numbers, the 58.1% fly ball rate and a 2.20 ERA/5.43 xFIP discrepancy are negative indicators.
Early and Often?
A good way to play this one may be with the F5 line, which looks to be around Milwaukee -120 as these numbers get posted this morning. Anderson vs. Lester should be a reasonable mismatch in Milwaukee’s favor, but the differential needs to be big enough to overcome the bullpen strength of the Cubs. Milwaukee comes off of a disappointing series loss to Cincinnati (1-2) after regaining confidence with series wins against Arizona (3-1) and Atlanta (2-1). Chicago finds themselves in a similar scenario, dropping the San Francisco series (1-2) after taking series against San Diego (2-1), Cincinnati (2-1), and Pittsburgh (3-0).
Both teams are hungry and motivated to take the NL Central and stay in the Wild Card race. I like that Milwaukee has been stout at home this season (32-23), especially against division foes (17-9). I look for them to keep things moving with a “hold on tight” win against the Cubbies tonight.
