If you laid the juice on the Dodgers last night, you cashed. If you’re a sucker like me and played the run line with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, then you’re out of luck. The Dodgers had plenty of opportunities to do more damage against Quintana but did not convert. As expected, Ryu was amazing but fell victim to Justin Turner’s error in the Cubs’ 2-run 6th inning. He rolls along without giving up an earned run and struck out 8.
Monday’s MLB slate is minimal early this morning, so we’ll focus on an NL East matchup that features one of my favorite young starters in the league…
NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Top of the Heap: Braves RL (-1) -146 ML/+120 RL
The Atlanta Braves are running hot and started to separate from the NL East pack against Philly this weekend. Other than choking Saturday night’s game away, the Braves have been on a winning streak that includes a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. They’re 5-1 on their current home stand that transitions from the Phillies to the Mets. Their opportunity to extend their lead in the division continues to knock this week.
Wheeler v. Soroka
I’ve been a big fan of Mike Soroka since I watched him work one hell of a game in Cincinnati back in April. He has been damn good, though his last couple home starts have not been as sharp. In his last 2 outings at SunTrust Park, Soroka gave up 17 hits, 8 earned runs, and 1 home run with a 50%+ hard contact rate.
Despite that, my money is behind him today because I believe he is a dependable starter to back based on his (short) track record. He gets ground balls at an amazing 57.0% clip and has a great 21.6% soft contact/34.7% hard contact ratio. I tend to think that Soroka doesn’t have any particular issue with pitching at home (his 3 other starts there have been solid), and that most of the damage in those last 2 starts were done by a hot-hitting Pirates team that tagged him for 10 hits.
Zack Wheeler comes into tonight’s game in sub-par form. The biggest knock is that he has given up 2 home runs in each of his last 3 games, and 11 home runs in his last 6 games. Wheeler is generating strikeouts, which is important to potentially limit damage from those hard-hit balls. A big problem with his recent tendency to give up the long ball is that the Braves offense is on fire right now and is converting runs very efficiently. He may play right into their hands.
Since May 16th, Wheeler has a high 47.8% fly ball rate and 18.5% of those fly balls have ended up as home runs. There may be something to him being less effective on the road as well. Zack has a .336 AVG, 1.45 WHIP, and 8 home runs away from Citi Field; as opposed to a .220 AVG, 1.13 WHIP, and 5 home runs at home.
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Both teams have been scoring well lately. The Mets have put up 5 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games, while the Braves have done so in 8 straight games. Both team’s scoring efficiency numbers are trending positively, though the Braves generally outclass the Mets when it comes to consistency at the plate.
On the flip side, closing out games has not been easy for the Mets. My metrics say that their bullpen is one of the easiest to score on right now and they offer plenty of opportunities. Atlanta’s relief unit is generally solid though their recent trend of letting Luke Jackson pitch the 9th inning has been costly. He zinged me Thursday afternoon and then again Saturday night. To avoid being a repeat victim to his ineffectiveness, I may have to live bet the Mets if he comes into a tight game late.
Speaking of tight games, the Braves have 5 one-run victories in this current 9-1 run. Case in point, I was burnt with 2 outs in the 9th Thursday while holding an Atlanta run line ticket. So I’ll do what I should have been doing all along, and that is manufacture a -1 run line by splitting my play into money line and run line wagers. I’ll take a peek at the first 5 inning numbers when they open later this morning, although I may pass if the price is high. While I think that Soroka will outduel Wheeler, a big part of this play is what the Mets bullpen should give up in the late innings.
