There was a lot of painful action in the MLB on Saturday, at least in the games that I had my eye on. Nick Senzel fouled one off of his face, JT Realmuto caught a foul ball in the junk, and Sean Newcomb took a scorched liner to the side of his head. By the way, what’s with Luke Jackson pitching the 9th innings for the Braves whenever I back them? I can’t complain too much because Atlanta had a ton of opportunities against a poor Phillies bullpen and did not cash in a single run.
Happy Father’s Day to all the pops out there. I’m going to keep things short for the sake of spending time with family. There’s a number of opportunities on the board today, but one that clearly rises to the top in my eyes. It’s a Captain Obvious / Team Square play, but when one of 2019’s most dominant pitchers takes the mound you have to take notice…
Chicago Cubs @ LA Dodgers
Primetime in LA: Dodgers RL +120
Let’s start by recognizing how insane Hyun-Jin Ryu’s season has been so far. His global stats include a .204 AVG, 0.80 WHIP, and .248 BABIP. In the rare occasion when an opponent gets on base, the runner gets stranded 94.7% of the time. I recognize that dominant pitchers do have letdown performances like Charlie Morton did yesterday. On the other hand, they can be extremely dependable like Lucas Giolito was against the Yankees on Friday.
Ryu’s success is well-documented and is surely being faded by some sharp bettors today. His 77 K/5 BB ratio is critical to that insane strand rate and his ability to minimize any damage when he is hit. Ryu generates a solid 50.2% ground ball rate and a good 18.1% soft contact/37.6% hard contact mix. In 86 innings this season, he has given up 13 earned runs and 7 home runs. Though he yielded a homer in his last start against the Angels, the last one he gave up prior to that was on April 26.
Quintana on the Road
His counterpart, Jose Qunitana, has performed fairly well for the Cubs this season though he’s had trouble going deep into games lately. In his last 4 starts, Quintana gave up 13 earned runs and 27 hits over 21.1 innings but only 1 home run. His game log urged me to look into his road performances as compared to his overall body of work.
Overall: .256 AVG, 1.31 WHIP, .307 BABIP, 10.8% HR/fly ball, 37.8% hard contact
Away: .289 AVG, 1.53 WHIP, .333 BABIP, 20.0% HR/fly ball, 46.1% hard contact
Admittedly, these are selected metrics but ones where there is a noticeable difference when he pitches on the road. His K/BB rate is slightly less on the road and fly ball rate is slightly higher away from home as well. I cannot say there is a major disparity between Quintana and Ryu though it is hard to argue that Ryu is not on a completely different level. As we all know, however, it comes down to price when playing the MLB.
Current Form
Starting pitching is a huge factor in my handicapping process, though opposing batters can change the way I look this. Chicago’s consistency at the dish is down lately but their scoring efficiency is up. The Dodgers are exhibiting the opposite these days; power is slightly down but they continue to be solid hitters that can punish a pitcher that gives them ample chances. Both teams have the personnel and ability to challenge pitchers and generate runs but Ryu is the trump card tonight.
Both bullpens get publicity when they blow the game. Last night, Kenley Jansen earned his second loss of the season by spoiling Buehler’s 2-hit gem. I still give the LA relief unit high marks for shutting down opponents, but still characterize them as volatile. By that, I mean you can count on them more often that not. On the other hand, they have a propensity to give up runs easily when they don’t lock down the game. The Cubs bullpen has had a tough time keeping the game in check lately. Chicago’s relievers have consistently given their opponents chances and are giving up runs more easily in recent weeks.
I’ll be generous and call the offensive matchup a wash in a vacuum. But Ryu should go deep and neutralize the Cubs’ run-scoring potential for the most part. Quintana will need one of his best outings of the season to keep pace, which I highly doubt will happen. Chicago is 2-4 in their last 6 games and 2-7 in their last 9 road games. Prior to taking the loss last night, LA had won 7 in a row at home. Again, their bullpen blows it from time to time and was the difference in Saturday’s duel. I’ll play the odds and expect a good (and short) bullpen performance to wrap up another great stellar from Ryu.
