I have to admit that when Lucas Giolito gave up a 1st inning solo shot to Luke Voit last night, my first thought was how Giolito has truly been due for a dud outing. Then CC Sabathia took the mound and my impression of the game quickly changed back to what I had expected. Despite some early walks from Giolito, he did not fail to back up all of my hype for him in yesterday’s article. It’s hard to tell where the Yanks go from here with Sabathia, but Friday’s outing was much appreciated for my bankroll.
The even-money win balanced out Thursday’s 0-1 day. Wednesday’s 0-3 day still weighs heavily on this week’s performance though. The week stands at 3-6 for -1.78 units. We’ve got a full day of baseball ahead, so let’s jump into the mix…
Texas Rangers @ Cincinnati Reds
Puzzling Line: Rangers +107
Plus-money seems like a gift from the books in this situation, despite my complete ineptitude to handicap a Cincinnati Reds game this year. That being said, I’m treading into dangerous waters today by backing Mike Minor and the Rangers. Minor has been solid all season with a 43.8% ground ball rate and 11.1% HR/fly ball rate. He’s done well by generating a good amount of soft contact (19.8%) though his hard contact (37.6%) number is average.
It’s difficult to quantify, but Minor has been successful in keeping games in check for the strong Rangers offense to do their thing. The Texas lineup has been consistent at the plate and is relatively efficient with scoring runs. Joey Gallo has been out for a while, yet they’ve scored 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 10 games.
Tanner Roark has been an enigma this season and has hit a rough patch lately. In his last 2 starts, he’s given up 8 earned runs and 3 home runs in 11 innings of work. These outings were against the hot-hitting Phillies and Nats and could be discounted, though there’s no reason why the Rangers don’t belong in that group of potent lineups. Roark has a low ground ball rate (33.5%) and typically does not give up a lot of homers (7.0% HR/fly ball), which works to his advantage tonight.
I anticipate a start similar to his last couple where the Texas bats flourish and take advantage of the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati hits lefties well, so Minor will need to pitch a solid game to give the Rangers a chance. However, the Reds offense has been slumping hard lately, cracking the 4-run output threshold only once in their last 10 games. Perhaps more telling is that Cincy has been held to 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 10. Both bullpens have been performing well lately, which is uncharacteristic of the Rangers’ relievers. It’s tough to put full confidence in this unit so a partial first 5 inning wager may be appropriate as a quasi-hedge.
LA Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
Morton for the W: Rays RL -105
Charlie Morton has certainly delivered for the Rays this year and especially of late. He comes into today’s matchup with an 8-0 record and a string of 4 straight quality starts while notching a win. In those last 4 outings, Morton has yielded 3 earned runs and 0 home runs with a 31 K/4 BB ratio over 27 innings of work. He stifles run scoring and has a 1.02 WHIP with 51.6% ground ball, 7.3% HR/fly ball, and 32.8% hard contact rates.
The Angels throw Jose Suarez on the mound for his third start of the season. It’s tough to gauge his full potential today with a small data set, but his first 2 starts logged 5 earned runs, 2 homers, and a 10 K/5 BB ratio over 10.1 innings. Safe to say there is a probable pitching disparity this afternoon when it comes to both production and duration in the game, somewhat similar to Friday’s Giolito-Sabathia matchup.
Both offenses are comparable, though I give a slight power edge to the Angels. Both relief units are solid, though LA has been giving their opponents more opportunities lately and may be put on the spot if Suarez cannot go past the 5th inning. Each bullpen was ridden hard last night so a long outing from Morton could really tip the scales further in the Rays’ favor.
Each team has had just 1 1-run game in their last 10, and Tampa Bay’s track record of covering the run line when they win is stellar. I know they’re the home team and I’m taking the run line but laying -190 just does not work for me. Give me Morton and the run line despite any crap that the rest of the BetCrushers squad will give me if they fall short with a 5-4 win.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Ride the Rollercoaster: Braves +105
Some say that Aaron Nola is back in ace form. If that’s the case, my Atlanta wager is in trouble. But I’m playing the percentages that he’s still susceptible to getting hit, especially with the task of taming the Braves’ en fuego bats tonight. Nola is letting up less home runs lately but has had a couple recent rough starts on the road. He gave up 9 earned runs, 12 hits, and 7 walks across 10.2 innings in his last 2 starts. Furthermore, the Phillies have a downright brutal bullpen to hand the ball over to.
Sean Newcomb must be the reason why the home team is a dog tonight. After all, he is a reliever being stretched out to make his fourth start this season; though it’s his first start since April 13th. Atlanta’s bullpen must be ready to take the game over early and limit damage since the Phillies offense has been hot. I’ve handicapped the Atlanta bullpen to give up some runs but also see the same for Philly’s relievers. Atlanta’s offense is just as hot, if not even more, as they’ve scored 6 or more runs in each of their last 6 games.
Philadelphia is 1-5 in their last 6 games, while Atlanta has won 8 straight and 5 in a row at home. Their last 3 games have been 1-run wins so this is a “buckle up for a bumpy ride” kind of game. Despite Newcomb getting the start, I find there to be good value in the home dog that has been getting it done no matter what lately. Philly’s bullpen is the trump card for the Atlanta +105 play, assuming Newcomb can deliver 5 innings and limit the Phillies to 3 runs or less.
