Previous Week Plays – 3-2
Season Record – 30-26
Week 13 Recap:
Things always feel good when you get a head start on the week with a Thursday Night Football cover. As always, we hope you’re following us on Twitter, where we released an official play locking in the Dallas Cowboys. They handled the depleted Saints with relative ease kicking off our weekend of betting. It was a split the rest of the way, although we could have and should have been 3-1 instead of the 2-2 that we had on Sunday. The Dolphins had every opportunity to go over their team total, but a turnover on downs, a missed FG and running out the clock kept them under. Such is life in sports betting, but as usual, being on the right side is always encouraging even when the result is not. The Colts did carry us to victory with their over total, the difference being they capitalized on their opportunities against the hapless Texans. We laid some points with the Ravens, and have to give credit to the Steelers for handling their business at home. Recognizing it was a square play, we’ll accept that loss and move on. We managed to hit on another teaser, taking our mark with them on the season to 9-3, and carrying us overall on the year.
Week 14 Picks:
Things are really log-jammed in the playoff picture in both conferences as week 14 features some obviously important divisional matchups. All of our wagers with the exception of Thursday Night Football this week, in fact have divisional implications as things are getting really interesting in the NFL playoff chase. The parity and opportunity for nearly every ballclub at this stage of the season is pretty nice if you’re a casual fan. As a sports bettor it’s potentially good and bad when you get to this point of the year. There aren’t a ton of easy fade teams as nearly everyone is still fighting and scrapping, but you also don’t risk as many letdown games as the teams you’re wagering on are all invested. We’re kicking things off with a Thursday Night Football play again with a total, have two games against the spread and one teaser. The teaser is a little different for us as we’re teasing up two teams, which is generally the opposite direction we like to go. A card of just four bets, but there simply aren’t a ton of lines to find an edge with this weekend. As we continue to mention, there are also a lot of unpredictable roster positions, specifically at quarterback that are also question marks. For the second straight week our slate is a little chalky, but again, we don’t care. A look ahead shows next week could be a lot juicier, so for now we’re hoping for a short and sweet profitable weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
Thursday December 9th
8:20pm
NFL Network / FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-120)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
Just when you think the Pittsburgh Steelers are dead and the Minnesota Vikings are alive, they flip the script on you. Pittsburgh wants to string together another victory on Thursday Night Football, while Minnesota needs to rebound after a crushing loss with a win of their own. The winner of this game not only gives themselves a legitimate shot at a playoff berth, but they also earn the mini-bye after the short week here.
The offense for the Pittsburgh Steelers rarely is able to make it look smooth and easy in terms of moving the ball down the field. However, they have a knack at just figuring out how to do enough to keep them competitive each week. In this matchup with the Vikings, they are going to need to both take advantage of the opportunities that they have, and find a little luck along the way. It’ll start with the interior of their offensive line as they need center Kendrick Green and guards Trai Turner and likely John Leglue to win their matchups against the Vikings middle. If they’re able to get even a little push, they should be able to run the ball and pass the ball effectively. Najee Harris has been a little up and down of late, which is to be expected from a rookie running back. It’s really more as a result to the sporadic ineffectiveness of his offensive line however. The good news for the Steelers, is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger should be relatively protected off of the edges, as the Vikings cannot get edge pressure with the loss of some key pass rushers. Mike Zimmer and the Vikings defense should welcome back Anthony Barr, and more importantly Erick Kendricks at the linebacker positions, making this defense more stout against Najee Harris. How well the Steelers can do offensively is really going to come down to how well Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool can do in their matchups with Bashaud Breeland and Patrick Peterson? If they’re held in check, Minnesota will win this game, if they can make some plays, the Steelers have a great shot at the upset.
For the Minnesota Vikings, we all know that in a game like this it’s all eyes on quarterback Kirk Cousins. Despite the continual harassment he takes, he’s clearly proven this season that he is in the upper tier of NFL quarterbacks. He’s done so with some pretty mediocre offensive line play on his own side, something that we’re pretty shocked about. With the exception of T.J. Watt, he should have a pretty easy go of it against the Steeler defense. The Vikings will give right tackle Brian O’Neill some help in an effort to slow down Watt, something that is easier said than done. The running game is really where Minnesota has an opportunity to win this football game, as the Steelers interior hasn’t recovered from the departures of key free agents and injuries to Tyson Alualu and Stephon Tuitt. They may be missing Isaiah Buggs in this game also, further thinning out that group. Who is carrying the football for the Vikings we may not know until game time as Dalvin Cook is questionable to play, although it sounds like it’s trending towards another start for Alexander Mattison. The good news for the Vikings is Mattison is more than capable, and would start for quite a few teams in the league. Pittsburgh gets a gift with the loss of veteran receiver Adam Thielen missing this game, which will allow them to double-team the elusive Justin Jefferson. Minnesota will need either K.J. Osborn or Dede Westbrook to really step up in this game to take some of that pressure off of Cousins and Jefferson.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 games for the Vikings
– The Steelers and Vikings average 45 points per game combined and allow 49 points per game this season
This should be an entertaining and probably close football game to start off the weekend. The spread seems spot on with the Vikings sitting as field goal favorites at home. Rather than attacking that, we’re going a little against the grain of Thursday Night games and looking at the total over here as it sits at a pretty low 43.5. This comes down to a couple of factors when deciding to lock this one in. First, the stats tell us that these teams score and give up well over this total. And that isn’t even factoring in that the Steelers defense has been allowing over 33 points per game over the last month of the season. The Vikings have been an over-machine playing at home, so there is a nice trend for this season as well. Despite the fact both teams will no doubt want to attack with the running game, they should both find enough success here to cross the total.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 43.5
Vikings 26, Steelers 23
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team
vs. 
Dallas Cowboys (8-4) vs. Washington Football Team (6-6)
Sunday December 12th
1:00pm
FOX
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Dallas Cowboys -4 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
One of the oldest rivalries in the league gears back up as the beat up Dallas Cowboys take a trip to D.C. to face the equally banged up Washington Football Team. After a hot offensive start to the season the Cowboys have slowed down, while Washington seems to be gaining more confidence each week behind quarterback Taylor Heinicke. A Cowboys win here would out them firmly in the driver’s seat for the division crown, while a Washington victory would make things really interesting in the NFC East.
A few weeks ago we would have looked at this matchup between the Dallas offense and the Washington defense and expected a 40 point outburst for the Cowboys. Fast forward to this weekend and you see a Cowboys offense that is struggling, and a Washington defense that has really tightened things up. What’s perplexing about the Washington turnaround, is they have been doing this without Chase Young and Montez Sweat, arguably their top two players on that side of the football. We’ll see if that can continue as it looks like the Dallas offensive line will be as intact and healthy as they’ve been since the beginning of the season. The Cowboys offense, as most offenses do, clicks a lot better when they’re running the football well. That’s something Ezekiel Elliott has not done well since getting banged up over a month ago. Tony Pollard has given them a burst in relief, however his availability for this game is still up in the air. Ultimately, this is a game that Dak Prescott needs to figure out how to win throwing the football. The Cowboys have a clear advantage with their receiving group against the Washington secondary, particularly if they don’t generate a big pass rush. If Dallas is going to make a serious playoff run, this is the type of game where Prescott, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb need to play like the type of players they can be.
Washington will have some offseason decisions to make at the quarterback position regarding the future of Taylor Heinicke and their organization. The gritty quarterback continues to win over teammates and fans with his hard play and ability to find ways to win. Fortunately against the Cowboys, he should have some help from his running game. Antonio Gibson played well without J.D. McKissic last week, and whether it’s more on him or a tandem effort, they should be able to run the football on this Dallas Defense. Establishing that run will be a critically important factor in this game as they cannot afford to go one-dimensional against an improving Cowboys pass rush. We’ve seen Micah Parsons vault into a DPOY candidate in front of our eyes as he has a really unmatched ability to find ways to get into the backfield. The Cowboys rush was boosted a week ago with the return of Demarcus Lawrence, and they may even get Randy Gregory back for this Sunday. For as much praise as Heinicke has rightfully received, this could be a tough match for him if he has to get into a straight dropback mode. Add in the fact that the team unfortunately lost tight end Logan Thomas yet again, and that security blanket option is no longer there either. If Washington can run the ball, things will open up for wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who has the ability to beat the aggressive corners of Dallas. However if they’re just throwing the football, this could be a turnover prone game for Heinicke and the Washington Football Team.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs NFC opponents
– Washington is 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games vs the Cowboys
– Washington is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games vs. NFC opponents
As if laying points on the road isn’t scary enough, we’re doubling down here and going against a team that’s been playing really good football over the last month. Despite a somewhat hobbled running game, this is as healthy as Dallas has been since the start of the season. Toss in the fact that the Cowboys have not only crushed against the spread this year, but they’ve been even better on the road and things line up well for them here. Washington has struggled against their rivals, and it’s not just a talent discrepancy. These teams are built on opposite ends of the spectrum, and in the year 2021, the Cowboys are the more favorably constructed squad. There has been some sharp money coming in on Washington, so if you don’t want to tail this one we won’t blame you, but our numbers say Dallas gets this done, despite not being able to grab a -3.
BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys -4
Cowboys 28, Football Team 20
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
Los Angeles Rams (8-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
Monday December 13th
8:15pm
ESPN
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
Week 14 will conclude with what is arguably the top game of the weekend as the Rams and Cardinals do battle on Monday Night Football. Los Angeles finally got some things going against the Jaguars a week ago, while Arizona and Kyler Murray picked right up where they left off before his injury. An Arizona win will make it nearly impossible for the Rams to catch them in the NFC West standings, something that Sean McVay and his team are well aware of entering the game.
Things finally clicked for Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense last week, albeit against the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars. The real test of whether or not they’ve gotten things going will come in this game against the Cardinals. You can go up and down the depth charts of these two teams with check marks of who has the advantage, however for the Rams, this game needs to be won up front with the big guys. Stafford is no stranger to pressure, it’s how poorly he’s handled it this year that is a bit of a mystery. Chalk it up to learning a new offense, working with new weapons, or maybe just age catching up with him a bit, but at the end of the day, it’s been an issue. The Cardinals will look to get that pressure to him with their front four, something they’ve had success with much of this season. Their athletic linebackers also give them the ability to present different looks, coverages, and occasional blitzes when they want to. For the Rams to offset this, they’re going to need to hit some big plays down the field. There’s no question they have the guys that can do it with Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and the newly added OBJ at receiver. It’ll be a lot of fun watching Budda Baker command his secondary that has been playing well to see how they can matchup with the talent of the Rams receiving group. For Arizona, the goal should be making Stafford and the Rams earn what they get marching down the field, and not allow anything cheap over the top.
There was a lot of buzz around some of the big name free agents and trades that came to Arizona, and rightly so. One of the quietest and most important moves this team has made was actually shoring up the interior of their offensive line by bringing in stable Rodney Hudson to play center. Throw in the surprisingly solid play of veterans D.J. Humphries and Kelvin Beachum at the tackle spots and all of a sudden, this has become a quality unit for the team. Of course it helps when you have a quarterback that can elude pressure, but where it really can help is in the running game. With Chase Edmonds sidelined, James Conner has taken full advantage and continues to be a key cog in this offense. Even if Conner doesn’t have a great game against the Rams, Arizona needs to give him some carries simply to keep the throwing and running lanes open for Kyler Murray. The Rams defense is built to rush the quarterback, and take away a top receiver. This is a great theory, however, when playing a team like the Cardinals it might not work. Even if Jalen Ramsey can lock up DeAndre Hopkins, Murray is more than comfortable getting the ball to A.J. Green and Christian Kirk. And that’s not even factoring Rondale Moore, who despite being quiet of late, has game-breaking abilities every time he touches the football. In a salary cap era that often keeps teams from stacking depth, the Cardinals have it on offense, and that will be a challenge for this Rams defense to contain.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
– The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
If you’ve followed these teams out west you’re probably well aware that this is a matchup at the Rams have really owned. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals haven’t been great against the spread when they’re at home and you may lean in favor of the visitor here. It’s a changing of the guard, at least for this season and this contest as the Cardinals are simply playing better football, and better at the quarterback position. We touched on the matchups above, and despite basically leading the NFL all season, this will finally be the game where people take notice of just how good the Cardinals are. Expect a good football game, with the home team finding a way to pull away down the stretch. We’ve got this spread at -4.5 so not only do we like the 2 points of value, but we’re also getting under the key number of three. Grab this one now before it gets back to 3.
BetCrushers Take: Arizona Cardinals -2.5
Cardinals 29, Rams 24
Teaser Bet
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Sunday December 12th
1:00pm
FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Carolina Panther -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (8-4) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-6)
Sunday December 12th
1:00pm
CBS
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Anytime you’re teasing a good team, you feel pretty good about getting an additional 6 points on your side. When you’re teasing a not so great team, you often wonder if those 6 points will be enough to help you cover the teaser? We’re locked in on and NFC South matchup between the Falcons and Panthers, a pair of 5-7 teams looking to get out of the basement in the division. Our second game features an AFC North contest between the Browns and Ravens, two teams that still have their sights on a playoff run in the jam-packed conference. This is our first teaser bet of the 2021 season that features two road dogs falling into a nice 8.5 point spread.
I suppose if we’re wagering on it we need to provide a breakdown for the Falcons and Panthers football game. This is one of the least appealing games of the weekend, as we’ll have to see Matt Ryan and Cam Newton limp towards the finish line of their respectable careers. Ryan and the Falcons have been pretty abysmal of late throwing the football, but they do have arguably the most electric offensive player in the league right now with Cordarelle Patterson. The Panthers on the other hand do not have the guy that might have held that title in Christian McCaffrey as injuries are derailing what would be an All-Pro career. The interesting thing about this game is that both teams are actually playing fairly decent defense. That’s not a shock for the Panthers team, but it might be for the traditionally porous Atlanta defense. This might be a bit of a struggle for both teams offensively. Now that he’s back and settled into the Panthers offense, can Cam Newton provide the spark he did when he first took some snaps upon his return? Can Matt Ryan take an offense with a bad offensive line and hold up against a tough Panthers defense? Expect a bit of a divisional slugfest in this one as both teams try to figure out how to move the football.
The second game between the Ravens and Browns is obviously quite a bit more appealing. In addition to the fact that it’s got huge playoff implications, there are some potential stars on display on both sides of the football. The Ravens never got over the preseason injury bug, as the casualties continue to mount, most recently star cornerback Marlon Humphrey. With Marcus Peters already out of the lineup, this makes the Ravens secondary suddenly very vulnerable against teams that can spread the field out. The good thing for Baltimore against Cleveland is, no one throws the ball less to the wide receiver position than the Cleveland Browns. The gameplan is always the same for the Brownies, get Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt going, and mix in the passes where needed. Fortunately for the Ravens here, they’re still one of the top teams at stopping the run. With that being said, they really could use Calais Campbell back in the lineup in a matchup like this one. On offense for Baltimore, their offensive line problems and carelessness with the football have really been a problem. They’ve largely overcome that, but that won’t be the case if they can’t run the football and give Lamar Jackson time on Sunday. After a hot start to the season, Marquise Brown has been pretty quiet, and Jackson has looked more like rookie Lamar, than the guy we saw earlier in the season slinging it around successfully. The Ravens have really owned the Browns, but on the road, the odds are stacked against them in this crucial AFC North contest.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in the last 6 years vs. the Panthers
– The Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
– The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Browns
– The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. the Browns
– The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
The Panthers and Falcons have a total resting around 42.5, which means it should be a low-scoring affair. In a low-scoring divisional game, being able to get over the key number and land at 8.5 in a season where underdogs are crushing it is huge. We view the Ravens and Browns game as a basic coin flip that could go either way. As we’ve seen from Baltimore all season, when they don’t win they play really tight contests, with just one exception against the Bengals. If they win, the teaser is a no-sweat, if they don’t win, they should at least keep this close in another divisional punch out.
