Previous Week Plays – 1-2
Season Record – 1-2
Week 1 Recap:
The opening weekend of the 2020 NFL season was surprisingly crisp and despite the weirdness in stadiums, was a pretty good product overall. While we enjoyed a lot of success with our prop bets going 6-2, the same can’t really be said about our picks as we struggled losing both of our teaser bets. The Colts deflated a ton of survivor pool picks and also our teaser that we had felt great on after covering the first leg in the Thursday season opener with the Chiefs. Our only pick against the spread was the Arizona Cardinals, who after a slow start, played really well and won outright against the defending NFC champs. All things being equal, we had some things correct, and we had some things wrong, which can be expected in week one.
Week 2 Picks:
It can be a difficult thing to separate emotion and teams from playing numbers, but that is what you must do in order to be a winning capper. This week, despite our teaser losses in week one, the numbers line up for a plethora of teasers again with many lines hovering around the touchdown mark. We’ve got two totals lined up and tickets on two teasers again. The Ravens are a team we’ve got playing in both capacities so we’ll be paying close attention to that marquee game.
Washington Football vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
Washington Football Team (1-0) ATS (1-0) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-0) ATS (1-0)
Sunday September 20th
4:05pm
FOX
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Arizona Cardinals -7 (-105)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
The Washington Football Team and the Arizona Cardinals were underdogs who found themselves down early in their opening weekend matchup. Each rallied to not only cover their spreads but come away with surprising outright victories. They both have a young quarterback at the helm, but their similarities seem to end shortly after that fact.
The BetCrushers were critical of Dwayne Haskins last season as perhaps we’ve gotten spoiled with rookie quarterbacks making instant splashes recently. Haskins showed improvement at the end of the season and picked up where he left off against the Eagles. That’s impressive because Washington is not exactly chalk full of talent on the offensive side of the ball. It’s always tough when you look at their offense to determine where or how they’re going to be able to score points, which holds true in this game against the Cardinals. Haskins is really going to have to be lights out, and Washington must figure out how to run the ball.
Where the team formerly known as the Skins’ does have some talent is on the defensive side of the ball. Chase Young brings an energy to one of the better defensive lines in the league, one that will have their hands full with Kyler Murray. It’s easy to see his development in his second season and with DeAndre Hopkins lined up at receiver this offense has a totally different feel than it did a year ago. While the Cardinals have an advantage in the passing game, Murray still needs some protection to be able to utilize his weapons. If not, he’ll be scrambling, which he may have to do quite a bit on Sunday. Kliff Kingsbury likes to throw the ball around, but he’s sharp enough to know that the best way to slow an active defensive line down is by running the football. The effectiveness of Kenyan Drake is crucial in this game. If the Cardinals can stay two-dimensional they should win this game without too much trouble. If they’re forced to have Murray drop back in obvious situations, it will be a lot more challenging for them.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has stayed under in 5 of the last 7 games for the Cardinals
– The total has stayed under in each of the last 6 Cardinals games versus an opponent from the NFC East
What’s the best approach in wagering this game? The history and trends would tell you Washington will cover. Our gut tells us that the Cardinals are going to win by more than a touchdown. There’s something about up and coming teams and young quarterbacks though that seems to keep them from blowing teams out, even when they’re better. The Cardinals offense is pretty potent as we’ve discussed, and their defense isn’t the best in the world. So why exactly are we betting the under? The Washington defense is improved as is the fore mentioned Cardinals defense. Despite Washington putting together some second half points versus the Eagles, we expect they’re going to struggle to score in this game. If this game stays close in the first half, it will be a tight battle in the second half and explosive plays will be limited.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 47
Cardinals 24, Washington Football Team 16
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) vs. Houston Texans (0-1)
Sunday September 20th
4:25pm
CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-115)
The Houston Texans had the unenviable task of starting the season with games against the consensus top two teams in the conference in the Chiefs and now the Ravens. Houston struggled in week one offensively in their first game without DeAndre Hopkins, and it won’t get any easier against the Ravens who were dominant in their opening game versus the Browns. The league gets two of it’s exciting young quarterbacks on display in the afternoon window and we’re looking at the total and what direction that might head.
Baltimore didn’t skip a beat as they powered their way on offense and defense establishing again why they anticipate the AFC North will run through them. They’ll look to keep the offense rolling against a Houston team that actually played respectably against the Chiefs high-powered offense holding Patrick Mahomes about as in-check as you can hope to do. The Chiefs used more of a power running attack to wear them down, something that just so happens to be the Ravens preferred method of play. Rookie J.K. Dobbins was impressive in his debut and will see his share of carries along with Mark Ingram II. The Texans weren’t awful against the run, but it was clear that they missed big D.J. Reader in the middle of the defensive line. Even though Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman plans to play a more run/pass balanced offense this season, don’t expect he and John Harbaugh to open up the passing game in this contest.
Bill O’ Brien brings a lot of heat on himself with some of his decisions, and it’s probably justified. He did explain his decision regarding DeAndre Hopkins in regards to the financial aspect and it kind of makes some sense. Regardless of that, his departure clearly has an impact on this team. You can’t overreact after just one game, but Will Fuller V certainly seems more like a complimentary speed receiver than a number one who is being doubled. The rest of the weapons are familiar names, just not real difference-makers at this stage of their careers. A bright spot was running back David Johnson, who at least briefly made Texan fans forget about Hopkins. Johnson is going to have his work cut out for him against the tough Ravens front so look for him to be used more in the quick passing game. For the Texans to move the ball, Deshaun Watson is going to have to put this offense on his shoulders and will likely need to scramble a lot, particularly on third downs. Houston really needs their offensive line to play more consistently, starting with left tackle Laremy Tunsil who looks great at times, and uninterested at others. To say they’ll have their hands full with the Ravens defense is an understatement.
Key Stats and Trends
– 72% of money is on the Over
– The Ravens have stayed under the total in 5 of their last 7 games
– The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on Sunday
In the NFL anything is possible which is why there is no such thing as a lock. However, the Ravens should control this game with their defense and be very run heavy. As long as they take care of the ball and don’t make critical mistakes that allow the Texans momentum and short fields, they’ll come away with the road win. The money is on the over so we’re going to fade the public and head the other direction with the under.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Under 52
Ravens 29, Texans 17
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (1-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Sunday September 20th
1:00pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
The Miami Dolphins weren’t overly impressive in their opening loss against the rival Patriots. The Buffalo Bills were extremely effective versus the Jets as they’ll take their 1-0 record into Miami to face a team in transition. It may seem as though these teams are headed in opposite directions, which could line up for a Bills stampede, but not so fast friends.
The offense in Buffalo was efficient and consistent as they surprisingly rode the passing game to their week one victory. That’s great news for a team that is geared to be a running first team to see their quarterback leading a strong passing attack. They’ll look to get Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss going against the Dolphins, a team that is susceptible to the run despite some defensive additions in the offseason. When you review the film of their game with the Patriots, Bill Belichick found success with the read option and Cam Newton and wasn’t afraid to run that throughout the game. The read option is also a play that Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is comfortable running with Josh Allen, who outside of Lamar Jackson, may be the best running quarterback in the league. Daboll recognized that exploiting the Jets would need to happen through the air and did so with new weapon Stefon Diggs and the underrated John Brown. Will he recognize that it’s the opposite versus the Dolphins and switch to a run heavy approach? You’ve got to imagine that will be the case. There is one side tidbit in this game regarding the Bills offense. If you read our Daily Fantasy article you noticed that Josh Allen was listed as our star of the week. That is partly because he’ll be running a lot, but also because Allen has absolutely owned the Dolphins in his young career, including 7 total TDs and zero interceptions against them in 2019. This Dolphins defense is substantially improved from where they were a year ago, but the Bills should still be able to move the ball and score against them.
Entering this game you would think the stout Bills defense would be able to handle the Miami offense which is still a work in progress. Rewind to a year ago, and Ryan Fitzpatrick really performed well against his old team, at least in terms of putting points on the board. Looking ahead to Sunday, the Dolphins offense and Fitzmagic are going to perform better than a lot of people, including the sportsbooks believe they are. It was announced Friday that two of the most important players on the Bills defense will be out with injuries as captain Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano will both miss the contest. These are huge losses in the middle of the defense as there is a big dropoff to their replacements. It was once Edmunds and Milano left the game against the Jets, that New York started to move the ball and put points on the board. Fitzpatrick will figure out how to exploit the middle of the field, where he prefers to work anyways and he’ll do well there. Much as Allen scrambles, Fitzpatrick will also use his legs when needed to extend drives.
Key Stats and Trends
– The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Bills and Dolphins
– The total has gone over in 4 of the Dolphins last 5 home games
– The over is 10-2 in the last 12 Dolphins games played in September
This line and total are set a little too much on perception and not enough on reality of the current game scenarios. It’s going to be humid in Miami and you’d have to believe that neither team is fully conditioned at this point in the season without much of a preseason. Check out the trend in the paragraph above about the Dolphins at home and the over in the last 3 seasons. With both teams looking to run the ball, these defenses will be tired in the second half of this game. Combine that with the fore mentioned Bills defensive injuries, and the likelihood of a big performance from Josh Allen and the Bills offense and this game should cruise over the low total set at just 41 points. Give us this late added over.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 41
Bills 29, Dolphins 27
Teaser Bet
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers / Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Detroit Lions (0-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-0)
Sunday September 20th
1:00pm
FOX
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) vs. Houston Texans (0-1)
Sunday September 20th
4:25pm
CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Baltimore Ravens -7 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-115)
The Ravens proved in week one that they are a very strong team in all three phases of the game, and that their continuity means something. We’re going to try to ride that for another week as we’ve got them teed up in a teaser, in addition to the under we discussed above. For more on that game action, feel free to re-read that breakdown. In the meantime, let’s take a look at the other piece of the teaser, the Lions traveling to Green Bay.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: GREEN BAY -.5 and BALTIMORE -1
It’s kind of crazy when you look at the historical trends to realize that one stat that really matters, is that Matthew Stafford has beaten the Packers 5 of the last 7 times that he’s faced them. It’s a little misleading though, as Aaron Rodgers missed one of those games and the rest of those wins came at home in Detroit. The Lions found a way to “Lion” the game away blowing a 4th quarter lead and watching a potential game winning TD pass slip through rookie D’Andre Swift’s gloves at the end of the game. Stafford played well and should be fine when they play the Packers, however things will be much better for him if his number one wide receiver Kenny Golladay is able to suit up with a hamstring issue. The Lions can sling it with the best of them when Stafford is healthy, however in this ballgame they’re going to need to run the ball if they’re going to win. Establishing the run will not only keep the Packers offense sidelined, it’s how you need to attack their defense. It will be interesting to watch how the Lions rotate veteran Adrian Peterson with the rookie Swift and Kerryon Johnson. Peterson has had some big games in his career against the Packers, but the Lions really need the speed and big play threat that Swift can present.
No one looked better in week one than the tandem of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. They’re clicking on all cylinders and their last couple of seasons of chemistry are huge in this short-started season. The Lions could be thin in the secondary again as Desmond Trufant looks to be a game-time decision, although rookie Jeff Okudah looks like he’ll be ready to make his debut. If you follow the Pack, you know that when they can run the ball early, their offense seems to roll. Look for the team to push Aaron Jones early to see if they can control the line of scrimmage.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Packers 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Texans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on Sunday
We debated taking the Packers ATS as less than a touchdown is really appealing in a game they should dominate. Aaron Rodgers is basically automatic playing at home with one of the best straight up winning percentages at home of quarterbacks in the modern era. Just needing a win… We’ll take A-Rod and pair him with the Ravens also just need a victory.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Green Bay -.5 and Baltimore -1
Packers 30, Lions 26 and Ravens 29, Texans 17
Teaser Bet
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets
vs. 
and 
vs.
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
Sunday September 20th
4:25pm
CBS
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-120)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers (0-1) vs. New York Jets (0-1)
Sunday September 20th
1:00pm
FOX
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
San Francisco 49ers – 7 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
A little advice for those who want to try to go to the well with the Super Bowl favorites in Kansas City… Bet them early as their lines will climb each week for the foreseeable future. We actually locked this teaser in when the line opened up at KC -7.5, but still love it at -8.5 because it gets us below the key field goal number. The other leg allows us to lock in San Francisco simply needing a win against a Jets team that is already in early season disarray. The biggest decision we had to make with this teaser was if we should just bet these favorites ATS on their own. Ultimately, because the numbers make sense as a teaser, we opted to go that route.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: KANSAS CITY -2.5 and SAN FRANCISCO -1
The Kansas City Chiefs picked up where they left off ending last season and beginning this season as the best team in the National Football League. It’s pretty apparent that the combination of continuity and talent is going to be a key early in this season. Their opponent, the Chargers, escaped with a win of their own against the Bengals and head home for this divisional battle.
The Chargers defense was strong against rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and running back Joe Mixon despite not having Derwin James on the back end. They dominated in the trenches which kept them in the game as they sputtered a bit offensively. Tyrod Taylor spearheaded the team in a way we expected, with lots of running and safe passing. Looking ahead to this game with the Chiefs, that approach is flat out not going to get it done in a game where they’re going to have to score points. The Chargers have weapons so that isn’t the issue, it’s really more about if their offensive line can control Chris Jones and Frank Clark, and if Taylor will take and make his shots? There isn’t much to talk about with the Chiefs offense as we all know what they’re capable of doing. All we really want to mention is, they can run the ball pretty well with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire and they threw up points with Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and others barely getting involved. Any chance the Chargers have of slowing this team down rests on their front seven both controlling the running game and getting heavy pressure on Patrick Mahomes.
Looking at the 49ers and Jets, this is a total mismatch in almost all areas. There are really only a few things that will keep this game from being a complete bloodbath and the Jets from being embarrassed. The first is the fact that the Jets are actually really good at stopping the run, which is something the 49ers offense is predicated on. New York did lose their starting middle linebacker (who was replacing the real starter in C.J. Mosley), which could hurt them just a bit in that area. The second is, the Niners are really thin in the passing game with George Kittle iffy and banged up, and down two receievers. That makes it tough to see how they’ll take advantage in the passing game. In week one, the Bills didn’t even attempt to run much against the Jets front, they went straight to the air with great success. Of course they had a trio of receivers to get open and make plays, something that can’t be said of San Francisco at this point in time. Lastly, even though there is no true homefield advantage sans fans, the 49ers do need to fly across the country and adjust to the time change, etc. With these three factors in mind, we didn’t want to lay the big number on the road and opted to tease to just needing a win. Where the Niners have the advantage is against a Jets offense that struggled mightily in week one and will struggle again this weekend. The Jets number one weapon, in shape Le’Veon Bell is out with a hamstring injury which means one of our favorites in Frank Gore will head up the backfield. Gore is a legend and future HOF’er, but he won’t have the explosiveness to establish more than some short gains with the 49ers defensive line overpowering the Jets group upfront. Throw in the fact that Sam Darnold looked horrible against pressure, something that he’ll face a lot of, and that could lead to a bevy of mistakes or 3 and outs. With rookie WR Denzel Mims officially on IR, the threats on the outside won’t be an issue as well either.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The Chiefs are 10-0 Straight Up and ATS in their last 10 games
– The 49ers are 15-5 Straight Up in their last 20 games
– The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September
It won’t be surprising if both of these favorites blow their inferior opponents out. We listed out the reasons we feel safer looking at them to win by a FG versus against the spread with the teaser bet. There are other opportunities to look at with these games as well, including the New York Jets under, or the under in the game as a whole. This one for us is pretty simple, can two really good teams beat two pretty bad teams? Who is more likely to start 0-2, the 49ers or the Jets? We’ll always look to take advantage of scenarios like these.
