The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-9-2021 is back after a travel day (for me, not the MLB). Chicago’s “light” lineup in Seattle Wednesday afternoon left a lot to be desired for our plays behind them. Though their timely runs in the 5th inning salvaged one of three wagers in our White Sox position. Fortunately, the first seven days of the 2021 MLB season has treated us well – especially considering there’s been a lot to digest in the early goings. Time to get back on the horse!
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays (-110)
Note: This game has been pulled off the board at the time of publishing. Toronto’s starter TJ Zeuch is no longer the listed pitcher and this role is now TBD.
There is not much doubt that this Angels team has a dangerous lineup. Last night’s 7-5 extra-inning victory against the Blue Jays was LA’s fifth 5+ run game of their seven games played. Granted, Toronto has only given up three 5+ run games in six games but they’ve squared off against a scuffling Yankees lineup and Texas. LA poses a different threat in that Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Jared Walsh have been clubbing the ball quite well to date.
Still, both of these offenses are underperforming to a degree. For LA, this is a very slight discrepancy mainly attributed to slow starts from several players. Anthony Rendon (.217/.321/.217), Jose Iglesias (.259/.286/.333), and Justin Upton (.231/.300/.385) have lagged their teammates early this season. One concern that comes with betting early numbers before lineups are known is if key players will be rested. I’m optimistic that the Angels will keep their mainstays in the lineup after having a day off on Wednesday. So if you are risk averse, keep an eye out for the lineups to be announced.
The Jays’ underperformance at the plate is quite significant, however. Apparently only Marcus Simien, Vlad Guerrero, and Randal Grichuk got the memo to bring their bats to the yard. Toronto has lagged my offensive expectations to the tune of about 35% so far this season. Are they ready to break out? Any day now is a safe bet. Their opening series in the Bronx was understandably low-yielding considering they faced top-notch pitching. But struggling against the Rangers? Now that’s a head-scratcher. Though they did touch up Griffin Canning for 2 homers and 4 runs last night. TD Ballpark in Dunedin is biased to hitters, which is certainly a factor for today’s handicap.
Solid in Relief
Both bullpens have been quite good so far this season. I projected both teams’ relief units as squarely above average, though the Angels have been better to date (3.39 FIP/3.36 xFIP). The problem is that LA essentially emptied their bullpen to deal with high-leverage situations in their 11-inning affair last night. And Toronto’s relievers have also delivered above expectation. Although I argue that their 2.98 FIP/4.15 xFIP discrepancy says to take it with a small grain of salt. They too used a lot of relievers in their defeat, including a big 2 innings from their breakout righty Julian Merryweather. But somebody has to take over for the starters today, and those somebodies are likely not to be their best. The saving grace for both of these units is that LA had Wednesday off and Toronto worked their pen lightly in Texas.
A. Heaney (L) vs. T. Zeuch (R) S. Matz (L)
The White Sox blew up Andrew Heaney for 7 runs on just 5 hits in his season debut. Other than that, the 29-year-old lefty has made a mark for himself the last three seasons as a ground-ball pitcher. In doing so, the fastball/slider/changeup pitcher has stabilized his pitch velocities and slimmed down his hard contact. Sure, that did not manifest against a hard-hitting Chicago lineup but his prospects are still strong. Heaney is a low-4.00s FIP type of pitcher who limits walks despite giving up the long ball at times. If the Jays continue to scuffle at the plate, this guy should get his season back on track.
Where this game gets really interesting is with Toronto’s big righty TJ Zeuch. The 25-year-old is in his third MLB season with the Blue Jays and is still working out the kinks. In just 38 innings, Zeuch has a very low 1.5 K/BB rate and underlying metrics that are close to qualifying him for the @Tekmunnee Trifecta. Consider his career 52.1% ground ball rate, 9.9% walk rate, and 42.1% hard hit rate (according to Statcast) that could be trouble against a potent lineup like LA’s. Realistically, TJ is a low-5.00s FIP starter who could be in for a rude awakening given his ultra-low .212 BABIP in the 15.1 innings pitched between 2020 and 2021. If BABIP regression hits him today, this could be a short outing for the kid. After all, he blanked the Yankees in his season debut but only lasted 4 innings.
The calculus changes if Steven Matz gets the nod today. After all, Matz comes off of a very surprising season debut in Texas. His 2-hit, 1-run outing came on the back of 9 strikeouts and just 1 walk. His velocities were up and he straight up dominated the Rangers. But the grain of salt is how the Rangers have been abysmal against lefties in 103 plate appearances this season. How does .262 OBP, 5.8% BB rate, and 29.1% K rate sound? Compare that to the Angels’ .373 OBP against lefties, albeit in half the plate appearances as Texas. Look, Matz could be on the verge of an epic comeback for his career but my outlook is less spectacular. He has struggled with home runs for four seasons now, and this Angels team is primed to take advantage.
WAGER: Angels Team Total Over 4.5 @ -130 (Cancelled overnight)
The major caveat here is that the game has been pulled off the board. Unfortunately, I noticed this after finishing today’s handicap. If Steven Matz becomes the listed starter for Toronto, you must find a solid 4 or a lower-juiced 4.5 to back the Angels’ team total over. In fact, this pitching change could present a better pricing opportunity. Stay tuned to our MLB page for an update on the Angels side once the lines are posted again. As always, price is key!
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-150)
Here we go again – the Giants square off against a left-handed starting pitcher at Oracle Park. We targeted this split on Opening Day with the mindset that San Francisco is one of the best platooning teams out there. That gambit worked for our first 5 inning wager, but then bullpens gonna bullpen and the Mariners blew up the full game position. Why is this relevant today though?
In their Opening Day matchup against a decent lefty in Marco Gonzales, this team put up 7 runs on 10 hits despite Mike Yastrzemski’s 0-5 season debut. Manager Gabe Kapler’s key platoon players against southpaws – Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores, and Mauricio Dubon – contribute significantly to the Giants’ lopsided success against lefties. And although Dubon went 0-4 that night, Longo and Flores teamed up for a 4-9 effort with a couple RBIs and runs. To date, San Francisco’s offensive production has been about 30% greater against left-handed pitching – with a healthy 118 plate appearance sample size.
Colorado comes into this divisional series fresh off of a 2-1 series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks in which the Rockies outscored them 23-13. In fact, Antonio Senzatela, Jon Gray, and the Rox bullpen held Arizona to just 3 runs in the final two games of the series. Yet according to field-adjusted wRC+, tonight’s opponents have produced similarly at the plate in this young season. Similar, as in well below average. But guys like Garrett Hampson and Ryan McMahon have started on the right foot and could be on the verge of sparking this offense for another divisional series. Or this lineup could slip back to a less prolific nature as they leave Denver for the Bay Area.
The Bullpen Component
When it comes to relief units, I pegged both of them as being in the below-average but not terrible tranche before the season started. Colorado’s has performed slightly better than expectation (5.81 ERA/4.13 FIP/4.42 xFIP), while the Giants’ bullpen has been a significant factor in their six games with a 3-2 record and 3 saves. However, San Francisco’s relievers have performed below expectation to the tune of 4.91 ERA/5.62 FIP/5.01 xFIP. And both units are effectively operating at full capacity or pretty close to it. The Giants had a day off yesterday, while the Rockies used their relievers sparingly this week thanks to Gray and Senzatela eating 14.2 innings in their starts. I give an edge to San Francisco’s relievers, though it’s not a big one and I am not too trusting of them after Opening Day – sometimes those wounds take a while to heal.
A. Gomber (L) vs. J. Cueto (R)
Johnny Cueto’s mastery of the shimmy gives us plenty of entertainment and old fashioned WTF moments on the mound. His 3-run, 5.2-inning outing in Seattle did not earn him a decision but gave a glimpse into what we should expect from the 35-year-old righty. Cueto has been far from unhittable since 2017 but has recalibrated to roll with the punches and try to eat some innings for his club. His four-pitch arsenal has not lost much velocity in recent years, so he’s pretty much a what you see is what you get veteran who generally issues 2-4 runs in 5+ innings. Unless the Rockies left their bats in Denver, they have a good chance to keep their production going in the season opener.
But my interest is focused on 27-year-old Austin Gomber, who came over from St. Louis in the Nolan Arenado trade. In his brief MLB career (107 IP), Gomber has struggled with his control at times to the tune of a 1.78 K/BB rate. Of course his 7-walk, 3-inning season debut against the Dodgers did not help things. And although he has not really been touched up for many home runs, free passes can be the dagger that the Giants need to thrive this afternoon. Last season, San Francisco capitalized on its .347 OBP and nearly a 6% higher HR rate against lefties to have one of the league’s best splits. This is all about whether Gomber can put together one of the best starts of his career – if not, the home team is poised to plate 2-3 runs against him and make hay against the Rockies bullpen.
WAGER: Giants Team Total Over 4 @ -125
In full disclosure, this number has risen significantly at a couple books – either you pay around -150 to go over 4 runs, or you save juice and lay -110 for 4.5 runs. Make sure to shop this number to get a price you are comfortable with. Otherwise, something like a game total over 8 or 8.5 could be viable. The logic there being that San Francisco’s floor is likely 5 runs and Colorado then needs to pony up 3 or 4 runs of their own. If you have confidence in a second quality outing from Cueto, another alternative is to lay a half run on the first 5 inning wager for -115 or so. But my preference is simply to isolate the Giants offense against Gomber and the Rockies bullpen. Just be sure to shop the team total and only make the wager if the juice is suitable for you.
Around the Horn
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