Going into the 2019 season, expectations were high in the NL East, where all but one team had season win totals of 85 or higher. Even more impressively, three of those four actually exceeded their totals. Your World Series Champions, the Washington Nationals, cleared their total with a second-half surge through the Wild Card. The Philadelphia Phillies were easily the most disappointing team in the group. The Phillies never got their season out of second gear and finished .500. With the 2020 MLB season, oddsmakers have set their sights high again with tall win totals for the NL East.
2019 Division Winner: Atlanta Braves
2019 NL East Standings:
- Atlanta Braves (97-65)
- Washington Nationals (93-69)
- New York Mets (86-76)
- Philadelphia Phillies (81-81)
- Miami Marlins (57-105)
Atlanta Braves 2020 Win Total: Open 92, Now 90.5
2019 Win Total: Over 86 (97-65)
On face value, you could call the Braves’ 2019 season a big success. FanGraphs Sabermetrics legend Dan Symborski dubbed them “The Team They Were Hoping For” on the heels of a significant reconstruction before the 2018 season. They crushed their 86-win total with a late-season surge that propelled them to a division crown. However, the players inside the Atlanta clubhouse had to be let down by yet another year without a playoff series win.
The Braves were built to mash and they did not disappoint in the new SunTrust Park. Veterans Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson joined forces with rising stars Ronald Acuna, Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson to crush the East. Donaldson’s career got back on track after a quiet 2018, hitting 37 home runs, 94 RBI, and .521 SLG. Without a doubt, insta-stars Acuna and Albies have a bright future ahead of them with this stacked club.
The bullpen was Atlanta’s weak link early in the season. Their surprisingly decent rotation was buoyed by a breakout season from rookie Mike Soroka, but relievers were subpar. Management addressed this glaring need by bringing in Mark Melancon from San Francisco and Anthony Swarzak from Seattle. The bolstered relief unit stabilized as they marched on to the postseason.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 91-71
Management beefed up the bullpen even more in the offseason, pushing it to an above-average unit and a huge 180 from where they started the 2019 season. Maybe the front office anticipates leaning on their relievers heavily with an “interesting” projected rotation. Soroka appears to be the real deal, but can we realistically expect a jump in his production? His progression as a pitcher should be equalled out by a statistical regression. He’ll be joined by Mike Foltynewicz, Max Fried, and Cole Hamels. Hamels will miss the start of the season with a strained shoulder but this rotation should pick up where they left off last season.
The front office responded swiftly after Josh Donaldson left to join Minnesota’s powerful lineup. Marcel Ozuna comes over from St. Louis on a one-year deal, joining Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Nick Markakis in the outfield. Ozuna answers the left field question nicely while the combination of Johan Camargo and Austin Riley will fill Donaldson’s spot at third. GM Alex Anthopoulos expressed optimism for Austin Riley to flourish, but a serviceable Johan Camargo will have to be the guy if Riley cannot seize the opportunity.
There’s no reason why Freddie Freeman won’t maintain his role as a leader on the field and in the clubhouse. His long-standing elbow problems are supposedly fixed, which is a scary thought for opposing pitchers. Their rotation should take a small step forward as Mike Soroka continues to grow as a big league pitcher, and the relief unit is poised to deliver gains with Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Will Smith. A range of 90-92 wins seems right to me, propelling Atlanta to defend as the 2020 NL East champs.
Washington Nationals 2020 Win Total: Open 92, Now 89.5
2019 Win Total: Over 89 (93-69)
World Champs. Period. But most essentially left this team for dead early in the season. The Nats, despite consistently being one of the best in the league for the past five years, lost Bryce Harper, their best player, to division rival Philadelphia. Washington’s bullpen was one of the most flammable in the entire league, reliably wasting leads created by the league’s best rotation. Outside of infielder prospects Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia, their pipeline was also running dry. Calls for manager Dave Martinez’ job were flying around all over the place.
Then things changed. Washington added Daniel Hudson at the trade deadline and got some key bullpen arms back from the IL. No longer was this team flushing quality starts or Anthony Rendon’s stellar offensive production. Adam Eaton, Victor Robles, and young sensation Juan Soto helped propel this team back into the playoff race. The injuries that plagued this team early in the season went away and guys like Trea Turner fueled an improbable run at the postseason. After all, this is the team that trotted out Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin to start over half of their games. The Nats got hot at the right time and the rest, as they say, is history.
“When we have Trea getting on base and leading off, he creates a lot of havoc,” manager Dave Martinez told reporters back in May. “You’ve got him, you’ve got [Adam] Eaton behind him. Those two get on for Rendon and Soto, it gets us going.”
Blake Finney – FederalBaseball.com
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 87-75
Most notably, 7-WAR beast Anthony Rendon left in free agency to the Angels. The Champs had to choose between re-signing Stephen Strasburg or Rendon, and Strasburg bit first. 2016 first-round pick Carter Kieboom has Rendon’s spot at third if he doesn’t bomb out in Spring Training. Projections have Kieboom with a best-case 3-WAR drop-off from Rendon’s production. Kieboom has big shoes to fill but the 22-year old is their guy of the future and Anthony was too expensive to keep. Management also re-signed key veterans Yan Gomes and Ryan Zimmerman, who provide the chemistry that helped keep this club’s head above water last year even after their 19-31 start.
Even though Washington’s rotation is stacked with experience and skill, their young core will dictate the fate of their lineup. Kieboom will undoubtedly have growing pains and centerfielder Victor Robles adds more value with his glove that his bat. However, 21-year old sensation Juan Soto is the real deal. Expectations are high for him in 2020 and the projections do not disagree. If he stays healthy, another 30+ HR/100+ RBI season is in the cards. Veteran Starlin Castro solidifies the middle infield with another banger, Trea Turner. This lineup has holes, but not the kind that will jeopardize their status as a contender.
The addition of Will Harris in the bullpen is a big plus, giving them the much-needed depth they could have used last season. Assuming the pen does not get hammered by injuries, Sean Doolittle can take the mound sparingly and Wander Suero won’t need to eclipse 70 innings again. I expect the Washington bullpen to be around league average, yielding an extra win or two. The largest factors in my projection to fall back about six wins is the loss of Rendon’s 2019-level output and a slight decline in starting pitching. Don’t get me wrong, this is still one of the best proven rotations in the National League. As for playing the win total, I missed the big move down from the 92-win open. The under deserved further consideration with my 87-75 projection, but the margin of safety is minimal with a total around 90.
New York Mets 2020 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 86.5
2019 Win Total: Over 85.5 (86-76)
When it comes to beating your season win total, a half game is literally as close as it gets. For the 86-76 Mets, that’s what it took. The Mets bullpen was one of the least efficient units in the MLB according to my (and many others’) metrics. Like the Nationals, they had one hell of a rotation that only got better after the trade deadline with the addition of Marcus Stroman. The New York starting five was loaded for the stretch run with deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Stroman, and Matz.
Rookie slugger Pete Alonso took Mets Nation by storm. He catapulted onto the national stage with his 53 home runs while winning the Home Run Derby by one dinger over fellow-rookie, Vlad Guererro, Jr. Guys like him and Jeff McNeil significantly boosted the regular lineup despite Robinson Cano lagging behind expectations. Unfortunately, as the season wore on the Mets lost heaps of offensive gains at the hands of their bullpen and terrible defense. Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz turned in brutal performances as relievers, making Seth Lugo the unsung hero in the bullpen. The Mets’ strong second-half run was all for naught as the Braves and Nationals were even stronger.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 82-80
The 2019 Mets were also known for friction between GM Brodie van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway. Off-field oddities persisted after Callaway’s dismissal. Van Wagenen had to can incoming manager Carlos Beltran for his involvement in the Astros sign-stealing fiasco. Then you’ve got the Wilpon family’s failed sale of the team to Steven Cohen. Former quality control coach Luis Rojas takes a hopefully less dramatic helm in a fresh start for 2020.
Callaway, Beltran, and van Wagenen’s antics made for one hell of a circus. And just when you thought it was safe, the injured Yoenis Cespedes went and got more injured at home in May. I project this to be an average lineup with major liability on defense. Cespedes’ cannon arm would help but his ankle injury is still keeping him out. He’s been taking batting practice but the last time I checked, there’s no DH in the National League. Jake Marisnick takes some of the sting out of not having Cespedes, but he can’t completely replace that big bat.
But one boar was removed from a trap — perhaps by Cespedes — and either charged toward Cespedes or startled him, causing Cespedes to step into a hole. Cespedes suffered the fractured ankle at a time when he was recovering from surgery to both heels that already was jeopardizing his playing status in 2019. The ankle fracture guaranteed that he would not take an at-bat last season.
New York Post, January 3, 2020: Yoenis Cespedes’ ankle fracture came during incident with wild boar
New York’s signings of Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are solid value plays that may or may not reap rewards. They provide solid veteran depth on the heels of Zach Wheeler’s defection to Philly. Wheeler is far and away better than his replacements, but the Mets “need Marcus Stroman to be a star in 2020” to maintain the rotation’s reputation as one of the best. Former Yankee Dellin Betances could be a game changer for a beleaguered bullpen…if he can stay healthy. He’ll likely be ready for Opening Day after rehabbing from a torn Achilles. Statistical indicators hint that last season’s bullpen ineffectiveness could be in the rearview mirror. The caveat to this is Familia having a bounce-back season, helping his club close out more leads in 2020.
WAGER: New York UNDER 86.5 +110 (@Bookmaker 2/28/20)
The rotation should be as solid as they come, but plenty of questions surround the Mets lineup in my opinion. Considering the effects of Brandon Nimmo’s injury last year, Marisnick’s signing is key. I can easily see Pete Alonso having a 40+ home run season to lead an otherwise-average offense. Defense is often overlooked in baseball, but theirs has the potential to wear down some of their star pitchers’ edge. I expect the Phillies and Marlins to start squeezing wins from the Mets, leading me to the under since an improvement to their record is unlikely in a competitive NL East.
Philadelphia Phillies 2020 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 85.5
2019 Win Total: Under 89 (81-81)
Philadelphia underscored their playoff run goals by acquiring big names Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto before the 2019 season. We can argue until the cows come home about whether Harper is worth a 13-year, $330M contract but the guy has a big bat and plays balls-out in the field. Other quality additions like outfielder Andrew McCutcheon and reliever David Robertson bolstered the roster. Cy Young contender Aaron Nola’s 2018 5+ WAR campaign added promise to the rotation. Philly had Washington’s big gun and were ready to fire on the NL East. Instead, they got mired in mediocrity right at the get-go.
Management’s strategy for this club had one glaring weakness: the rotation. Despite high expectations, Jake Arrieta ultimately showed his age and guys like Jason Vargas and Drew Smyly simply were not realistic solutions. The rotation issues had a trickle-down effect on a battered, struggling bullpen. Even worse, Robertson, Cutch, and Realmuto had injury-shortened seasons. After the dust settled, the Phillies finished with a middling 81 wins and manager Gabe Kapler was shown the door. Kapler and company were soon replaced by Yankees veteran Joe Girardi.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 84-78
Girardi and former Reds skipper Bryan Price have kind of the coaching experience that can squeeze more out of a pitching staff. The Yankee bullpen management philosophy is all about keeping arms healthy and ready for the long haul. Injuries decimated the Phillies relievers in 2019, creating potential for significant improvement given the new regime and hopefully better fortunes. David Robertson is out for the season, emphasizing the need for effective use of Hector Neris, Seranthony Domingez, Adam Morgan, and Tommy Hunter.
The above approach has one major caveat, and that’s concern with the rotation plowing through enough innings. Nola should give them another 200-inning season and offseason acquisition Zack Wheeler may do the same. Excitement drops off from this 7 WAR duo to the less electrifying Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin, whose FIP could realistically be around 5.00.
So, the natural question for Harper as he reported to his second Phillies camp Sunday morning was: Did the team do enough this off-season to win?
“My wife actually asked me that question the other night,” Harper said. “She’s super into it and everything like that.
“You know,” he added. “I believe we did.”
Jim Salisbury – NBC Sports Philadelphia, February 16, 2020
Philly’s raid of the Big Apple wasn’t limited to Wheeler’s big arm. The front office went big on a one-year deal for former Yankee shortstop Didi Gregorius. His bat isn’t what it was in 2018, but he makes one of the better middle infields alongside second baseman Jean Segura. I expect the Phillies offense to tread water this season unless Andrew McCutcheon gives them big production and plays 125 games or so. Hoskins, Harper, and Realmuto are great hitters for their positions but there are four other slots in the lineup that could struggle. My median-case scenario calls for improvement, but not enough to leap-frog Washington and Atlanta or surpass their win total.
Miami Marlins 2020 Win Total: Open 64, Now 64.5
2019 Win Total: Under 63.5 (57-105)
The Miami Marlins created the blueprint that their NFL counterpart, the Miami Dolphins, recently followed: Burn the thing to the ground and grow again from the ashes. Some critics point to the tanking strategy in MLB as one of the sport’s biggest problems. Looking for prospects, Miami’s management let go or shipped out cornerstone players like Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto, and promising young arms Chris Paddack and Luis Castillo in recent seasons. Marlins fans have been through this tear-down model of team building multiple times. The problem is that it’s been almost 20 years since their last World Series title. When will the payoff come?
Despite a chronic lack of offense, the Marlins showed flashes of brilliance on the mound in 2019. Promising starters Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith logged over 350 innings, gaining essential experience. Those arms could only do so much, though, in the face of minimal run support and one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Derek Jeter and the new ownership group has a Herculean task ahead of them to get this team back into contention…and back in the good graces of the Miami-Dade County taxpayers. The strained history between the community and former owner Jeffrey Loria is largely responsible for an apathetic fan base and small home crowds.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 74-88
Can we be optimistic about the future of this Marlins ball club? Starting pitchers Caleb Smith and Sandy Alcantara (and his legitimately scary pitch variety) must deliver 350 innings to provide stability for the rotation. These mid-4 FIP guys aren’t Cy Young contenders but give the team respectability on the mound. However, the starter who provides the most upside in my opinion is Pablo Lopez. Lopez has progressed steadily through the Marlins’ farm system since his 2017 acquisition, making ten starts in 2018 and 21 last season. The 24-year old Lopez is not a dazzling high-strikeout pitcher, tbut he can give them 150 innings with a low-4 FIP.
Miami’s rotation was below average last year, but never posed a major liability. That fell to the bullpen; they were the only relief unit in the MLB to grade out with a negative WAR. Understandably, management rebuilt that mess in the offseason, so hopefully we can throw this issue out the window. Veteran free agent Brandon Kintzler is serviceable and joins new faces Ryne Stanek and Yimi Garcia. Not great talent, but good enough to raise their performance above replacement level. Don’t expect elite, but even a below average unit will make a huge difference.
If it wasn’t for the Tigers, the Marlins would have the league’s lowest wRC+ for 2019. It can only get better for manager Don Mattingly’s crew, right? Out go the depressing bats of Curtis Granderson and Martin Prado, in comes Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar, and 35-year old Matt Joyce. Johnathan Villar, who most likely peaked offensively for the O’s last season, will occupy center field. Villar should provide stability to a revolving-door position in 2019, headlined by Lewis Brinson’s .173 batting average. Like the bullpen, Miami’s lineup should be sub-par but significantly better than last season’s rock-bottom offense.
WAGER: Miami OVER 64.5 -115 (@SugarHouse 2/18/20)
Miami’s win total implies a sideways season as compared to their 2019 number. On face value, this makes a ton of sense. Last year’s Marlins missed the mark by 6.5 games without much sizzle on the diamond. My projection for 2020 ranges from 70 to 76 wins; a scary 13-win or better improvement! Miami’s baseline number from last season should be more like 60 when you consider their 2019 Pythag number of 61. Add five wins from the bullpen and another seven from a rebuilt offense and exceeding 65 wins suddenly becomes realistic.
2020 NL East Projected Standings
- Atlanta Braves (91-71)
- Washington Nationals (87-75)
- Philadelphia Phillies (84-78)
- New York Mets (82-70)
- Miami Marlins (74-88)
The On Deck Circle
You can follow us on Twitter or subscribe to our email notifications to catch the new handicapping articles when they drop. We have one more division to preview before shifting gears to prepare for Opening Day. You can catch the four previous previews by clicking the links for the NL West, AL Central, NL Central, and AL East. The MLB page at BetCrushers.com is home to our daily plays and futures bets, so be sure to bookmark it and visit us throughout the 2020 season.
