After a couple days of wet weather at several ballparks, it looks like Mother Nature is going to let the boys play ball on Easter Sunday. Yesterday’s 4 wagers were chopped 2-2 but a bit of aggressiveness payed off with the Reds play, yielding 0.76 units on the day. Pending today’s results, this has been a good bounce back week with a net of +2.43 units. However, you can never count those chickens before they hatch.
Saturday’s Blue Jays-A’s starting pitching matchup was polarizing in the handicapping community. With only a few starts under their belts it’s tough to know when pitchers will fall back to earth or dig themselves out of an early hole. Shoemaker has been riding high and Fiers was prone to some rough outings. Yesterday was no different, except Shoemaker exited in the 3rd after a leg injury so we’ll never know if he was going to take his lumps or stay strong. Regardless, the 10-1 thumping of the A’s reinforces that it may be better to wait on some guys who appear to be massively underachieving.
Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo had a bumpy start but settled down to strike out 9 in 6 innings of 1-run work. Despite not having Votto in the lineup, the Reds scratched out 4 runs with timely hitting and then held it down in the pen. They almost choked away my overly-aggressive +150 run line wager, but effective use of the bullpen got them out of an 8th inning jam. Iglesias came in for his 3rd straight save and whiffed his 9th guy in a row. Nuts.
The two losses came on plays where I specifically faded the opposing starters. Aaron Nola was just good enough to outduel the Rockies’ unproven Senzatela. The Phillies had a monster inning to pull ahead and never looked back. Charlie Morton was victim to a sloppy 2nd inning that plated 5 runs for the Red Sox, punctuated by a grand slam. Boston’s bullpen wasn’t quite bad enough to enable a full Rays rally. Fortunately, both of these plays were plus-money so no juice cut into the winners.
We’ve got a typical afternoon Sunday schedule with 15 games. I’m hitting it hard with 5 cracks at closing out the week positively. Let’s get after it…
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Tyler Mahle is charged with the task of getting the Reds started off on the right foot for a shot at a 4-game sweep of the Padres. The wins have been tight and Mahle will need to be sharp today without Iglesias holding down the back end of the pen and Votto anchoring the lineup. It appears Votto will be held out as a precautionary measure since tomorrow is a rest day, but if he makes it in the lineup it will be added upside. Mahle was knocked around by the Dodgers after a pair of solid outings that only yielded 1 run. The metrics support his good start and I expect another solid outing today.
San Diego looks to Joey Lucchesi to stop the bleeding, as the Padres have lost their last 6 games. He was hammered for 12 runs in his last 2 starts against Colorado and San Francisco. Though he’s giving up hard contact, you have to wonder whether Cincy is the club to hit him hard. The major differential I am playing on this one is the starting pitching. Despite them being on the road, I think there is too much value in the price on the dog. Give me the Redlegs for the 4-game sweep.
WAGER: Reds +127
Seattle Mariners @ LA Angels
Hitting the road may be just what the doctor ordered for the Mariners. After rolling 6 straight wins on the road at the beginning of April, Seattle came home and lost all 6 there. Now they’ve won 3 against the Angels and, like the Reds, have a chance at a 4-game sweep. Former Red Mike Leake has been able to limit damage so far this season. He’s a contact pitcher that benefits from a decent amount of run support from his offense. The Angels do not pose the greatest threat in this regard, but Seattle must continue to mash at the plate to give themselves a cushion for a bullpen that has pitched poorly. Leake must go 6 innings to limit this unit’s exposure.
Jaime Barria has not been crisp in limited work, which could be costly against a powerful Seattle lineup. Although he can be effective in producing soft contact, he needs to keep walks down to reduce the damage from home runs and other hard-hit balls. Seattle’s bullpen may make this game closer than it needs to be but the Mariners are 11-1 on the road and oppose a scuffling Angels club that has lost 6 in a row. Business as usual or do the streaks get broken?
WAGER: Mariners +108
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Dereck Rodriguez faces a surging Pirates club who has been very strong at home. Rodriguez is a ground ball pitcher with reasonably good control. He has started the season well despite skating on thin ice in his last start against the Nationals. The Giants have lost 4 in a row and have fallen into an offensive slump, only scoring 4 total runs in their last 3 games (though yesterday was rain-shortened).
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has won 5 in a row and is 6-2 at home. Chris Archer has been top notch for the Bucs and there isn’t much that would lead you to think otherwise this afternoon. If he can pitch efficiently and make it 7 innings with a lead, the Pirates should be able to extend their run to 6 straight. I can’t lay the -150 here, so I’ll take the risk for a little reward on the run line.
WAGER: Pirates RL +145
NY Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals
Noah Syndergaard is a guy who is significantly underperforming and should get back into form…at some point. He gets the start in a hitter’s park this afternoon, and the Cardinals have some hitters. Thor has given up 15 runs in 24 innings but is getting strikeouts at a very good rate. He is supported by a potent offense but a shaky bullpen may not have his back when he exits. However, the Mets have only put up more than 3 runs in 1 of their last 4 games.
St. Louis continues to produce offensively and will need to keep it rolling with Dakota Hudson on the mound. Hudson got beat up by Milwaukee twice already this season but had a bright spot against the Dodgers. I don’t see him making it past the 5th inning, so their good bullpen will need to be on top of their game to limit late-game damage. Syndergaard is clearly the better pitcher of the two, but I do not believe his current form warrants being this much of a favorite at Busch.
WAGER: Cardinals +124
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Veteran David Price may be on his way back to good form and squares off against young phenom Tyler Glasnow. Both teams are on the verge of extending streaks; winning for Boston, losing for Tampa Bay. Price had an excellent start against Boston after giving up 4 runs in each of his previous 2 starts. Glasnow is overproducing to a degree but is doing so with good command of his pitches. He’s issued only 3 walks and relies on his slider and curve to keep hitters off balance. Both offenses are capable of putting runs on the scoreboard but this one could easily be a pitchers’ duel. Boston’s bullpen is more prone to melting down and I must admit to liking Glasnow better than Price at this point in time.
