Less fuel savings when it matters made Talladega a decent race, all things considered. The final sequence was thrilling and Carson Hocevar finally found his way into Victory Lane. But not before an epic burnout that was nothing short of spectacular. We skipped the ‘Dega race preview because, well, life has different plans than what my schedule may say. Plus it was a week where high volatility takes most of the edge off of our ratings. But we’re back in the saddle for the 2026 Wurth 400. BOL!
- Track type: intermediate
- Track length: 1.5 miles
- Laps/total miles: 267/400.5
- Stage lengths (laps): 80/85/102
Handicapping the Wurth 400
Texas Motor Speedway fell out of favor with many fans compared to the action we get at Kansas, Las Vegas, and Charlotte. Although those tracks have enough in common, Texas’ race quality fell off after the 2017 repave and alterations. Still, those are the primary comps we use per the ifantasyrace.com Similar Track Guide for obvious reasons. Michigan and Homestead are secondary comps at lower weightings that splash in a handful of extra points of reference. There’s a lot to juggle in this situation, just don’t lose sight of what makes Texas different.
Just how different is Texas from its intermediate track brethren? Let’s start with the drivers. Teams straddling the 45 degree reference line in the plot have similar strengths and weaknesses at Texas as the comp tracks. Quite a few of them are biased either towards Texas (Joey Logano) or the other intermediates (Denny Hamlin). Compare that to Las Vegas or Kansas, where there is greater correlation between the track and its comps. One thing to note is the larger body of comp track races compared to just four Texas Next Gen contests.
High On the Hog
Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron top the pre-qualifying power ratings chart. Byron’s star shines less brightly this season compared to prior years’ hot starts. But he and Larson have been anything but slouches on this track. They simply lack the trophies to show for it. Drafting tracks aside, Larson has finished outside the top 10 only once in 2026. And Byron only twice. These HMS top performers are accustomed to producing at a higher level though. Does this create additional value in the markets? Maybe not with Larson who is priced right there with favorites Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin. For Byron, however, his odds to win the Wurth 400 is 10/1 or higher. How fast have they been at Texas in this car? Tied for first across the four Next Gen races.
Byron’s better finishes are at odds with the early market pricing, though the Chevrolet nose issue is still a drag on many of the manufacturer’s teams. Here lies an additional edge with primo Toyota drivers Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell. The red hot #45 team is the co-favorite this weekend for obvious reasons. He has five wins on the season, a pair of top 5 finishes at Texas – including a win in 2022 – and the third highest total speed rating average here. JGR teammates Hamlin and Bell have demonstrated a bit greater prowess on the other intermediates compared to Texas though. As noted before, Texas is unique enough and can get overshadowed by so many comp races. Reddick demonstrates no bias toward or against Texas in this context.
Gibbs’ #19 team found their groove after a tough start to the 2026 campaign. A pair of P8 or better finishes on the season’s 1.5-mile tracks lines up well with the P4s on the same tracks to end the 2025 season. 7th best total speed rankings on the conventional tracks this season plus the general uptick in performance from last summer onward bode well this weekend. Texas was good to Chase in his prior employment at SHR through 2024 via three top ten finishes despite less impressive performance ratings. Now Briscoe has the car, team, and resources to keep his non-superspeedway momentum going with favorable pricing by the markets.
Too Many Questions
Penske’s Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have been choppy at Texas in the four Next Gen races. 2022 & 2025 were much better for both drivers in terms of performance and results. Throw teammate Austin Cindric into the discussion to substantiate the organization’s disparity among the four races tracks. The problem is, neither the #12 or #22 has been strong on the 1.5-mile tracks going back to the start of the 2025 season. Joey Logano’s P15 at Las Vegas is the duo’s best finish this year on the 1.5-mile intermediates (Las Vegas and Kansas). Ryan Blaney’s form has been very strong otherwise, though that may not be enough to overcome this inconsistency.
Once again, Ross Chastain finds himself in this category. He’s a solid Texas performer with brutal current form. The #1 team spiked a pair of runner-up finishes in 2023 & 2025 without elite speed. But that speed has been absent this year, dropping him into the 45/1 or longer odds range for the Wurth 400. I doubt many of us paying attention to the Cup Series scene would be fooled by Chastain’s priors at Texas given the current state of affairs. Ross’ big prices are fool’s gold until something dramatic changes at Trackhouse.
Under the Radar?
Legacy Motor Club’s Erik Jones over performs at Texas compared to his general baseline and work on the intermediate comps. In fact, the #43 team is down the 2026 speed list quite a bit. Plus their comp track performance is more mid-to-upper teens than his Texas profile leads on. Given how Jones has delivered a pair of top ten finishes here since 2022 and solid speed in three of the four, the markets may be offering a heavy price (6/1) in the top ten pools. Likewise, Daniel Suarez churned out three Texas top ten finishes in a row before moving to Spire this offseason. He’s overcome deep starting positions and middling speed to do so, making him an interesting mid-tier driver to keep an eye on. This is a favorable track in light of his ho-hum form and comp ratings.
Action On the Track
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