On the heels of a wild ride at Texas comes a significant change of pace: Watkins Glen. Can Chase Elliott parlay last week’s victory into another strong road course finish? That’s a good question as the Cup Series rolls into SVG’s wheelhouse where the target is clearly on his back. Light rain might make the 2026 Go Bowling at the Glen spicier than usual though. Regardless, let’s dive into race #12 of the Cup Series schedule before the All-Star Race at Dover.
- Track type: road course
- Track length: 2.45 miles
- Laps/total miles: 100/245
- Stage lengths (laps): 20/30/50
Handicapping the 2026 Go Bowling at the Glen
You don’t have to search too hard to find Shane Van Gisbergen’s road course profile and accolades of his domination. Look no further than his run of five straight victories in 2025. He did not take home the hardware at COTA earlier this season, however, as this year’s hottest driver Tyler Reddick earned those honors. The Glen is one of three true road courses on the schedule. Sonoma and the aforementioned COTA are primary comps while hybrid courses like the Charlotte Roval (R.I.P.) and Chicago Street Course serve as secondaries. I don’t mind throwing last year’s foray to Mexico City into the primary comp mix. The ifantasyrace.com Similar Track Guide recognizes Watkins Glen as a unique track but not in the sense that all other comp data points are severely devalued. General road course prowess is still the key for evaluating the field.
Our power rating plots rarely look like the one above. It speaks to the road course dominance that SVG continues to exhibit in NASCAR. All six of his Cup Series victories have come on a road course or hybrid. Although Trackhouse Racing’s broadly mediocre showings in 2026 may drag the road racing king down a bit. He recently posted the third best rating at COTA en route to a runner-up finish; a departure from his elite figures throughout 2025.
The “Other 37”
As far as I’m concerned, the rest of the field is where value lies. Well, maybe not with teammate Connor Zilisch who sits right behind SVG on the odds board at a short price around 3/1. CZ went back-to-back here in the O’Reilly series, making the short odds an aspirational figure to be frank. (Note that Zilisch is absent in the power ratings plot due to a lack of Cup Series experience.) Essentially every other driver can be found at 10/1 or greater other than Tyler Reddick. Prior to the Kiwi’s dominance, this race was won by the likes of William Byron, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Chris Buescher. That said, the days of grabbing the #17 at an advantageous price in road course placing markets and matchups are unfortunately long gone.
The Best of the Rest
Christopher Bell ranks #2 in our pre-qualifying power ratings despite not having won at Watkins Glen. Plus he’s emerged victorious only once on a road course in the Next Gen car. However, the 2025 COTA winner has exhibited significant speed on the road going back to the 2025 season along with William Byron and Chase Briscoe. Bell rattled off 4 straight top five road course finishes as well as 7 of the last 8. Of concern is his recent “luck”, if you want to call it that.
Despite not cracking the top five at Watkins Glen since joining the Cup Series full time, Tyler Reddick deserves mention given his impressive victory at COTA. The #45 team is the epitome of running hot in 2026, outpacing much of his past performance data. If you consider 2025 to be somewhat of lost season, look back at Reddick’s 7 top ten finishes in the 10 road course and hybrid races in 2023-2024. Granted, both of his wins have come at COTA while being a solid top ten performer at The Glen.
Too Undervalued?
Sitting in the top six or seven on the odds board to win the race, Chase Briscoe has had one of the faster road course rides since joining the #19 JGR team. 20/1 to win the race? That’s a spicy price but it’s the top ten markets that have more intrigue. Chase is hanging around -110 at a couple books even though he’s notched P5 and P6 finishes in the last two Watkins Glen contests. Top ten speed in each road race since 2025 other than the Roval last fall should mean something. As you can see in the plot above, Briscoe favors The Glen over the array of comps.
Chase Elliott has somewhat of an inverted road course profile compared to Chase Briscoe. 6 P8 or better finishes in the last 8 road races do not include any Watkins Glen contests. It’s been since 2022 when the #9 team cracked the top fifteen with a P4 finish and top race rating. That capped off a run of 4 straight top five finishes including victories in 2018 & 2019. The landscape is much different now, though Elliott has plenty of bright spots elsewhere that should bump him up your ratings if relying heavily on Watkins Glen results.
Michael McDowell and AJ Allmendinger aren’t necessarily true sleepers in the Watkins Glen field. After all, they are road course ringers in a way. The Dinger is never going to rate highly in current form, but don’t let that deter you from a quality road course resume. But it’s McDowell who interests me more in the second tier of drivers hanging around 30/1 to win. More specifically, -110-ish for a top ten screams for a look. The Go Bowling ambassador got creamed by Austin Hill in last year’s Xfinity race then laid an egg the following day. Otherwise, he’s performed at a top ten level in the Next Gen with two top ten finishes. As iFantasyRace.com’s notes say, “2026 has been ugly but he finished 5th at COTA this spring“.
Chasing the Checkered Flag
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