In 2019, the Los Angeles Dodgers were crowned kings of the National League West for the seventh year in a row. Given this juggernaut, few people expected the division to be competitive despite San Diego making an offseason splash by signing monster free agent Manny Machado. Regardless, consensus gave Colorado the best chance of making a run in the West. Consensus and splashy signings were wrong, as it turns out. When the regular season ended in September, Arizona and San Francisco edged out the Rockies and Padres. Our season win totals recognize the likely permanency of the division’s status quo in 2020 by tagging the Dodgers with the highest win total not only in the NL West, but in the entire National League.
2019 Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
2019 NL West Standings:
- Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
- San Francisco Giants (77-85)
- Colorado Rockies (71-91)
- San Diego Padres (70-92)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2020 Win Total: Open 99, Now 101.5
2019 Win Total: Over 92.5 (106-56)
Despite winning 65% of their regular-season games last year, the Dodgers’ ongoing “playoff nightmare” continued in 2019 with an NLDS loss to the Nationals. Granted, they ran into a Nats team on their way to World Champion status. Given the history, I am sure everyone in the Dodgers organization in 2019 was, and still is, in Commissioner’s-Trophy-or-bust mode. With such a stacked team, the big question is: what could they possibly do to improve in 2020?
Although LA missed out on the Manny Machado sweepstakes in the 2018-19 offseason, they scored centerfielder AJ Pollock and reliever Joe Kelly. Both arguably failed to meet expectations, though Pollock’s issue was significant time lost to injury. These negatives paled in comparison to the strength of their core – Bellinger, Kershaw, Turner, Pederson, Buehler, Ryu, etc. They dominated regularly and mowed down the NL West competition. A big shot in the arm came when rookie catcher Will Smith joined the party. He smacked 15 homers in 54 games and showed that he could hang with the big boys.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 98-64
After blowing through their 2019 win total of 92.5, the Dodgers are now saddled with a triple-digit total. In case you missed why, there’s a guy named Mookie Betts who was traded from Boston. Veteran starter David Price joined Betts in the move for outfielder Alex Verdugo. Price may benefit from a change in scenery, as his Boston days were nagged by injury and a massive contract. This blockbuster trade was all about a well-run Dodgers organization saying that 2020 belongs to LA. Mookie’s probably a one-season special given his contract, so 2020 is the time to take full advantage.
Re-signing Ross Stripling was crucial (despite nearly trading him to the Angels) considering the loss of Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda. A healthy David Price fills one of these gaps and Dustin May could get a shot to take another spot. Blake Treinen and Jimmy Nelson were acquired at “buy low” points in their careers to bolster an already good bullpen. Nelson’s effectiveness is questionable, but Treinen still has plenty to offer the LA relief unit.
Betts and Price are huge shots in the arm for the World Series favorite. As much negative publicity as Kenley Jansen and this bullpen gets, it’s above-average performance is anything but a liability. If Will Smith avoids a sophomore slump, his ability to shine behind the dish is another strong positive. Without a doubt, the Dodgers will make a strong bid for their eighth straight division title. This 101.5-win mark is massive and the over could be toast if the rotation underperforms and/or significant injuries hit them. Playing the under on this stacked club is arguably the way to go, but I’ll be on the sidelines with the Dodgers’ win total.
Arizona Diamondbacks 2020 Win Total: Open 81, Now 83.5
2019 Win Total: Over 75.5 (85-77)
The 2019 Diamondbacks blew through their total by nearly ten games. Preseason expectations were low after trading Paul Goldschmidt and watching AJ Pollock walk to LA. The sell-off continued as Zack Greinke was traded in July. Remarkably, this team continued to chug along and D-backs Nation was buying in to their future. Somehow, Arizona just kept winning games. GM Mike Hazen appeared to have been a seller, but in actuality his plan appears to have created a winner right now.
@azsportsfien, my go-to Twitter guy for the Phoenix sports market, agrees that the Goldschmidt trade was much more than a salary dump. Catcher Carson Kelly and pitcher Luke Weaver were instant starters for the Diamondbacks. Weaver and his cutter looked great in his twelve starts (1.07 WHIP, 3.87 FIP), and Kelly gave them solid playing time. When it came to filling Goldschmidt’s spot at first base, Christian Walker did a pretty damn good impersonation last year. On Walker’s heels is a guy that @azsportsfien continues to pound the table for, Kevin Cron. The big fella got valuable at-bats in the Big League last year, making Walker a potentially valuable trading chip.
I’ve neglected the headliner of the 2019 Arizona Diamondbacks: All-Star Ketel Marte. Marte had an out-of-this world season with 32 bombs and a .329/.389/.592 slash line. His defense was superb and he showed versatility by playing CF (for the departed AJ Pollock) and some 2B. Breakout seasons like this leave us wondering whether Marte hit his peak in 2019 or if he’s still on the rise.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 85-77
Assuming Ketel Marte regresses from his 7.1-WAR season, he still projects as one of the league’s best. David Peralta raises more questions than answers in the outfield, especially after previous years’ injuries. Arizona will continue to have their trusty back-to-back Gold Glove-winning Nick Ahmed on the field after locking him up with a four-year extension. One of the biggest arguments for the 2020 Diamondbacks taking a step backwards is Ketel missing significant time to injury. This specific concern faded with the trade for Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte. Hazen shrewdly used the growing depth of his farm system to make this big score. Starling gets Ketel back in the infield, potentially saving him the wear-and-tear of another season sprinting around on the Chase Field turf.
Don’t sleep on Arizona’s rotation, even without former ace Zack Greinke. Madison Bumgarner comes in on a five-year deal after a strong 3+ WAR 2019 season. I doubt MadBum will produce at that level this year but his presence in the rotation is signficant. He heads up a staff that needs full, respectable seasons from Luke Weaver and Robbie Ray. Keep your eye on the righty, Zac Gallen, to take a big step forward with this Arizona rotation. It will not be a good sign if Gallen leaves Spring Training without making the rotation. I also expect the Arizona relief unit to improve from average to above-average. Bradley, Guerra, Chafin, and company are anything but a weak spot on this club. This is a team on the rise that will make noise yet again in the NL West.
WAGER: Arizona OVER 80.5 -110 (@SugarHouse 1/21/20)
The implied regression for this rising Diamondbacks team leaves plenty of meat on the bone. Ketel Marte had a special 2019 and expecting a 2020 repeat is probably unreasonable, but someone falling back from fantastic can still land on good or great. Even if their rising stars lose a little sizzle this year, we don’t think asking Arizona to tread water in 2020 is unrealistic. We played Over 80.5 before the Starling Marte deal was formalized (posted on the MLB page at BetCrushers.com). Anyone with a more positive view on the D-backs can still find value with the current number of 83.5.
San Francisco Giants 2020 Win Total: Open 72.5, Now 68.5
2019 Win Total: Over 73.5 (77-85)
Expectations were low for San Francisco, so very few people were shocked that the Giants fell out of the playoff picture by the All-Star Break. Then they proceeded to surprise us all by picking themselves off the mat with a shocking 16-3 July run. This was clearly manager Bruce Bochy’s last stand and the troops responded. Unfortunately, their big chance to enter the postseason conversation died after a late-August four-game sweep by the D-backs.
Despite the fall-off, the Giants exceeded their win total without any significant offseason moves. This happened because management put the season in the hands of aging veterans and call-ups like Mike Yastrzemski. The 29 year-old rookie outfielder made a splash with 21 homers, 55 RBIs, and a .272/.334/.518 slash line. Yastrzemski and veteran Evan Longoria led a contingent of unexpected heroes in the summertime run barrage. Their accomplices included Alex Dickerson, Stephen Vogt, Donovan Solano, and “The Panda” Pablo Sandoval. Once starters Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija hit their strides, this offensive explosion turned into a streak. Ironically, this run back to relevancy put management in an awkward position. They weren’t buyers and any previous plans to be sellers died on the vine in the heat. Their situation became a custom-built baseball purgatory.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 72-90
Purgatory was followed up in the offseason with the Giants losing one of their franchise-defining players of the 2010s, Madison Bumgarner. The three-time World Series Champion is gone, and so is their manager Bruce Bochy. MadBum was a long-time, strong San Francisco rotation leader but the torch has now been passed. To who, you ask? Thirty-four year-old Johnny Cueto has struggled with injuries since leaving Cincinnati. Fellow old man Jeff Samardzija eats innings for breakfast but is not a Bumgarner-esque ace. Bringing in Kevin Gausman for the middle of the rotation is a solid move, but new skipper Gabe Kapler can only realistically expect him to be good for five innings at a time.
Aging starters and a short-outing guy like Gausman in the rotation accentuates our bullpen concerns. The 2019 version of the San Francisco bullpen was deep and sturdy but now it’s a shell of itself. I project it as a bottom five unit this year, backing up a rotation that might have to rely on the relievers a little too much. How about the offensive firepower they showed off? Don’t count on it, although this lineup is stacked with good defending position players. The Giants defense will help prop up their pitching but the lack of bats emphasizes the importance of winning low-scoring games. My numbers are clearly optimistic about the Giants’ win total. However, I can’t put my money behind the projection because the NL West is loaded with teams that put runs on the board – an environment that the Giants will struggle in.
Colorado Rockies 2020 Win Total: Open 75.5, Now 74.5
2019 Win Total: Under 85.5 (71-91)
Under bettors of the 2019 Colorado win total cruised to an easy cash as the Rockies team disappointed with 71 wins. The second half of the season spiraled into a big WTF starting with a mid-July sweep by the San Francisco Giants. That disaster essentially flipped these two teams’ trajectories in the playoff race.
Coors Field has a reputation as a pitcher-killer, making it difficult to recruit big free agents. Over the past couple seasons, guys like Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, and German Marquez have performed well enough at home to lessen that perception. Unfortunately, Freeland did not back up his strong 2018 season and Gray and Marquez faded down the stretch. Until Colorado can get productivity for an entire season out of these three starters, they’ll have to continue to get it done with their bats.
One of the biggest complaints with the Rox’ front office is their farm system pipeline management. After all, key prospects didn’t even get a chance to get valuable big-league reps late last season. The assumption is that guys like Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon give them a fighting chance with their bats.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 80-82
Let’s start with the cornerstone of the franchise, third baseman Nolan Arenado. The lack of off-season upgrades left him asking, “Are the Rockies committed to winning?” No moves, no improvement? Financial constraints are understandable but the front office seems comfortable standing pat on the 2019 key pieces. To a degree, they’re rolling the dice that Freeland, Gray, and Marquez come through with 70-90 starts. Offense isn’t everything, so these guys need to be sharp this year.
Assuming Arenado handles these offseason issues professionally and their big three starters can achieve success, Colorado has a legitimate shot at a Wild Card run. My expectation is for their bullpen to be a notch better though I would not be at all surprised if this unit disappoints again. My 80-win projection relies heavily on Freeland, Gray, and Marquez combining for a 9-WAR season. They have the talent and 2020 is the year to execute.
WAGER: Colorado OVER 73 -110 (@SugarHouse 1/24/20)
My original inclination when seeing the William Hill opener was that the downside risk was too much. Fortunately, the number dropped a couple games by the time I began my mid-January deep dive into the NL West. Conservative projections peg Nolan Arenado & Trevor Story as an 8-WAR duo and Charlie Blackmon can still play his ass off. Questions surround center field and the effectiveness of Daniel Murphy, but Ryan McMahon’s upside helps balance out this concern. I’m willing to roll the dice with Rockies Over 73 behind what could be a strong top end rotation.
San Diego Padres 2020 Win Total: Open 84, Now 82.5
2019 Win Total: Under 78.5 (70-92)
The rebuilt 2019 San Diego Padres fell well short of betting expectations by ending the season 11 games below .500. Pre-season expectations were optimistic with the signing of monster free agent 3B Manny Machado. Credit is due to a front office that appears to be executing their plan to field an increasingly-competitive club. If anything, the Machado signing signified that the Friars are no longer sellers.
Machado is half of one of the league’s strongest infield tandems. Fernando Tatis, Jr.’s rise in the majors was truncated by injury but the future is extremely bright for their star shortstop. This nasty defensive duo made it tough on righties trying to squeeze hits through the infield. Former Marlin Chris Paddack made a big splash in the rotation, exceeding many expectations. The Padres were careful not to overwork the 23-year old starter in 2019, keeping their eyes firmly planted on the near future.
So why did this club fall so far short of their full potential? Highly-paid Eric Hosmer performed like someone on his career’s downswing. His defensive skills at first base were offset by declining production at the plate. Wil Myers never evolved into a dependable everyday player and boom-or-bust slugger Franmil Reyes was dealt to the Indians. 2019 ended as disappointing mixed bag for a once-optimistic San Diego clubhouse.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 76-86
I won’t deny that pairing Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr. with a solid rotation should yield improvement. Six games’ worth of improvement, to be exact. The looming issues surrounding Tatis are 1) the measurable effects of an inevitable regression from last year’s .410 BABIP and 2) the need to improve defensively. Signs point to a slight backslide from his .317/.379/.590 rookie campaign – unless he continues to be one of the luckiest players at the plate. I also expect him to shore up his fielding skills as a maturing big leaguer. He will use more discretion to fall short of last year’s 18 errors, 14 of which were fielding errors.
Their decade-long rebuild could be primed to pay dividends this season. Trading budding infielder Luis Urias and starter Eric Lauer to Milwaukee for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies is an interesting move, but is it a net-positive right now? Grisham and his bigger upside will take over for Myers in right field, allowing Wil to take a back seat as the fourth outfielder.
San Diego’s rotation should be a tick better, despite trading Lauer for Davies. Zach Davies could have one of the rotation’s least-productive arms this season, but Lauer wasn’t ace material, either. Outside of Chris Paddack, the strength of this team’s pitching is their relief unit. Kirby Yates & Company is an MLB-wide top-5 bullpen even after tempering my expectations. Then there’s the fashion, with the comeback of the brown unis making big news.
WAGER: San Diego UNDER 82.5 +108 (@Bookmaker 2/11/20)
The Padres are caught in a rising tide in the NL West, and that spells trouble. The Giants, Rockies, and D-backs all have the ability to take wins away from the Padres. San Diego’s total ticked down since the open and I can’t disagree with the move. Maybe a thirteen-game increase in wins from last season is possible with the talent on this roster. Still, I don’t see how any boost from the rotation can be strong enough to get them above 80 wins. Until this club shows me otherwise, I’m a firm believer in San Diego going Under 82.5 with a plus-money payout.
2020 NL West Projected Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
- Colorado Rockies (80-82)
- San Diego Padres (76-86)
- San Francisco Giants (72-90)
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