After what seems like an eternity to us baseball fans, Opening Day 2021 is finally here! It’s been five months since the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrated their franchise’s seventh World Series Championship and now all 30 teams start fresh. And the head honchos at MLB have given us exactly what we want – 15 games of live action starting at 1:10 ET and going through the night. It’s time to get the 2021 season started with a pair of plays for Opening Day!
Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals (-150)
Nothing like getting juicy in my leadoff game of the 2021 season, right? This midday matchup features a pair of teams that will likely miss the playoffs but want to get started on the right foot. They are far from offensive juggernauts, yet the Royals hold a decisive 20-point wRC+ edge in my eyes. Nick Solak and new acquisition Nate Lowe are the Rangers’ key hitters despite conventional wisdom pointing to slugger Joey Gallo. Gallo has game-changing power that comes at a cost though – a 35%+ strikeout rate. Because of that, I respect that Texas can generate 3-4 runs if the dominoes are lined up properly. But Joey hitting in front of .260-type hitters like Solak and Lowe seems to tilt the Rangers’ offensive philosophy away from boom-or-bust and more towards manufacturing runs.
Kansas City’s positive offensive differential comes from having a more balanced lineup construction. Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, and Adalberto Mondesi are get on base guys who can leg out extra bases. Plus they are stolen base threats – especially when it comes to Mondesi. They are backed up by more powerful middle-lineup hitters like Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez, and DH Jorge Soler. I admit that the Royals are far from the Dodgers or Padres in terms of dangerous offenses, but their lineup is better suited to score via their diverse skillsets.
Neither bullpen moves the needle significantly in this context. Coming into Spring Training, however, the Rangers relief unit held a firm edge over the Royals. Then they suffered cluster injuries to closer Jose Leclerc, Joely Rodriguez, Jonathan Hernandez, and Brett Martin. On the flip side, Kansas City’s top-heavy bullpen is healthy and ready to lock this game down after Brad Keller exits. Holland, Staumont, Barlow, and Hahn are all solid relievers and will be available Thursday afternoon. Since KC’s weaker middle relievers should not be a big factor in this game, their high-leverage arms are waiting in the wings to drive home KC’s first win of the season.
Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Brad Keller (R)
When it comes to full-season expectations, both of these pitchers must grind through and eat a bunch of innings on their way to a mid-4.00s FIP. Their pitch-to-contact approaches bode well against each opponent’s sub-par offenses. This is far from a sexy Opening Day starting pitcher matchup, though I see a nice edge here for the Royals behind Brad Keller. Both starters are low-strikeout, ground ball pitchers – a profile that could actually help someone like Joey Gallo avoid a multi-strikeout afternoon. So let’s dig into why Keller has an edge here.
Kyle Gibson struggled in his first year with the Rangers in disappointing fashion. His season opener was a decent 5 inning, 0 ER outing against Arizona in their new stadium. Then the wheels came off when he rattled off eight straight 2+ run starts that included some really rough ones until he pitched a 4-hit complete game shutout at Houston. Kyle could make it through the 6th inning if he limits the damage to 3 runs. If not, the limping Texas bullpen will have plenty of damage control on their hands.
Brad Keller is a guy who I have been high on for a couple seasons now. He rebounded after a disappointing second-year campaign in 2019, although 2020’s .233 BABIP requires me to be cautious for this season. His uninspiring Spring Training isn’t the greatest sign, though a similar preseason last year did not derail a very good regular season. After missing his 2020 Opening Day start due to COVID, Brad made up for the delay a week later. It was the first of three 0 run starts against the Cubs and Reds that could set up quite similar to Thursday afternoon against Texas. Plus the guy has historically pitched better at Kauffman Stadium than on the road. And 2020 emphasized those splits – compare 2.43 FIP/0.76 WHIP at home to 4.95 FIP/1.43 WHIP away. My handicap supports Keller and the Royals even if he surrenders 3 runs across 6 innings.
WAGER: Royals -150 (Good to -170)
This is a matchup where Kansas City has a firm advantage at the plate even though both starters are ground-ball contact guys. Plus Texas’ late-game edge has eroded with preseason cluster bullpen injuries. And as much as I hate to lay a lot of juice, this is a good spot for Brad Keller and Kansas City’s better hitters. My probable range nets them a firm 1 run advantage. However, a great outing from Keller stretches this differential considerably and makes it extremely difficult for the Rangers to come out on top.
That moves me to where I’m willing to lay about as much juice that’s in my comfort zone. The number I laid disappeared by Tuesday evening and now the going rate is around -160. This level would test my willingness to lay juice, especially with a non-dominant team like KC. Otherwise, you should be able to find a suitable alternative wager to capitalize on this expected mismatch.
San Francisco Giants (-106) @ Seattle Mariners
The Opening Day nightcap features a battle of teams that exceeded last year’s expectations, though the odds are stacked against them to reach the postseason in 2021. For the Giants, it is more about the level of competition in the top-heavy NL West. They sport a league-average offense that is quite versatile with several platoon scenarios enabled by a strong bench. Guys like Wilmer Flores and Austin Slater helped this team mash against lefties last year. And now this San Francisco club faces off against a wily lefty in Marco Gonzales.
The Giants do not have to rely purely on platooning to capitalize on opponents’ lefties, however. Key players like Mike Yastrzemski and Donovan Solano had plenty of success against both southpaws and righties in 2020. On the flip side, veterans Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford struggled against left-handed pitching. Although I’ve ticked this offense down coming into this season, they are one of the better teams in this situation. As of publishing Wednesday morning, it appears that Mike Yastrzemski is good to go after being hit on the hand. Plus Gabe Kapler’s final Spring Training game featured their lefty-facing lineup with both Flores and Slater in there. This is notable because Slater gives guys like Yaz and Donovan Solano a great opportunity to drive in runs. Hell, he posted a .469 OBP against lefties last year and is a threat to advance on the base paths.
The Mariners, however, have a slightly less prolific offense against righties. That said, they flat out stunk against lefties last season so the alternative is much less appealing. But they get Mitch Haniger back from injury, who adds to this team’s potential power at the dish. Whether he, Kyle Lewis – who is day-to-day with a knee bruise – or Kyle Seager can apply pressure to Kevin Gausman could be the deciding factor in this game.
Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Marco Gonzales (L)
For 30-year-old Kevin Gausman, it’s all about avoiding the long ball. He refreshed his career in San Francisco by dialing up his strikeouts despite having a couple of multi-homer outings last year. And if there is any glaring issue against Gausman, it is his slow starts to the last few seasons. But I will qualify his stumbles in 2020 by recognizing the caliber of offenses faced early on – namely the Dodgers and Padres. Starting this season off in a pitcher’s park and against a less-powerful lineup surely helps the veteran though. Kevin does not need to go super deep into this game with a good, top-heavy bullpen waiting in the wings.
I have plenty of respect for Marco Gonzales as well, especially after three straight top-notch seasons with the Mariners. He too had his ups and downs last season with three 3+ ER games in his first four starts. But the guy can go 6 or 7 innings, helping take the edge off of Seattle’s tough bullpen. So his objective is to get through the 6th inning and hope that the bullpen can hold a lead for closer Rafael Montero. And considering that three of his first five starts in 2020 extended into the 6th, this is entirely possible Thursday night.
WAGER: Giants -106 Full Game [60%] (Good to -135)
WAGER: Giants -120 First 5 [40%] (Good to -145)
I’ve split my position on the Giants into 40% on the first 5 innings, and 60% on the full game. Simply stated, San Francisco’s proficiency against left-handed pitching is well worth isolating – even against a quality arm like Marco’s. This is despite my downgrade of the Giants offense as they enter the 2021 season. Manager Gabe Kapler found a nice formula against lefties that should be potent enough to keep Gonzales from taking full control of the game. An edge goes to a slightly-better bullpen for the Giants, making the full game play viable as well.
Our Best Bets For Opening Day 2021
That’s a look at our best bets for Opening Day 2021. Be sure to check the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for our recurring series of MLB Morning Breakdowns starting Friday morning. Like this Opening Day preview, these articles feature the handicaps behind where we’re putting our money. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL this season!
