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NFL Divisional Weekend

Previous Week Plays – 4-3
Season Record – 49-37

Wild Card Recap:

Wild Card weekend was bookended with losses as we missed on the first half under for Cincinnati and Las Vegas, and then badly whiffed in taking a shot with the Cardinals and the points. We were never very high on the Cards, we simply thought that fading the Rams and getting more than the field goal made sense. In our breakdown we expected a magical performance from quarterback Kyler Murray that started with his great running abilities. What we got instead, was the exact opposite as Murray looked as bad as any first time playoff quarterback we’ve seen in recent memory. The middle part of our capping worked out more favorably as the Buffalo Bills carried us to an easy cover and team total over with their historic offense performance in a blowout. The 49ers also took care of business covering, although we missed on the game over as the Cowboys never got their offense going. After a slow first quarter, the Chiefs went on to blow out the Steelers, covering the large spread they entered the contest facing. Putting out a 4-3 Wild Card record isn’t anything we’re embarrassed about, however compared to the previous few seasons successes in the round, it’s still a little disappointing.

Divisional Round Preview:

The Titans and the Packers will join the winners from Wild Card weekend in the Divisional Round

After the league’s first eighteen week regular season and a weekend full of Wild Card games, we’re now settle with the elite 8 as we enter the Divisional round of the playoffs. There wasn’t an abundance of drama last weekend as the favorites mostly cruised in nearly all cases, with the exception of the Cowboys and Bengals. The narrative heading into the Super Wild Card weekend was that veteran quarterbacks had an advantage over first time entrants, and it proved to be extremely accurate. The Divisonal round should provide a little more drama, as evidenced by three of the four spreads hovering around a field goal, in favor of the home teams. There’s some uncertainty at this point regarding the quarterback situation for the 49ers, making a full handicap difficult in their contest with the Packers. The NFL has some great football games on tap for the weekend, but finding an edge with wagers may not be easy. We settled on one side, one high total, and one unconventional teaser play. These 3 official plays are all posted at the bottom. Enjoy what should be a great weekend of football!

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

vs.
Cincinnati Bengals (11-7) at Tennessee Titans (12-5)
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Tennessee Titans -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)

WIll Kevin Byard and the Titans improved defense be able to slow down Joe Burrow and the explosive Cincinnati Bengal offense?

After securing their first playoff win in over three decades, the Cincinnati Bengals head down I-75 en route to Nashville for a showdown with the Tennessee Titans. The Bengals have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month, but will face a Titans team that may be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season. Will Derrick Henry be able to return and be the game changer that he was before his injury in week 8? The bigger question may be, can the much improved Titans defense slow down Joe Burrow and the weapons of the Cincinnati Bengals offense? The Titans may also benefit from the extra rest, as the Bengals enter the game banged up at some key positions, particularly on the defense.

THE CINCINNATI BENGALS ON OFFENSE:

From what we’ve recently become accustomed to seeing from the Cincinnati Bengals offense, it was a relatively ho-hum performance in their Wild Card round against the Raiders. The fact that Joe Burrow tossed a pair of TD passes and rookie phenom Ja’Marr Chase caught 9 balls for 116 yards, and we’re calling it ho-hum, let’s you know that the Bengals have definitely arrived. For Cincinnati to take the next step, they’ll need to elevate to an even higher level against a defense that took a nice leap of their own from last year to this season. The Titans defense starts with being tough to run against, something that will be difficult for Joe Mixon to. The Raiders held the Bengals under 100 total yards rushing and Mixon to just 48 with a 2.8 yard per carry average a week ago. Offensive coordinator Brian Callahan is going to need to work in some runs though, even if they aren’t having a ton of success simply to keep the defense honest and off-balance. It’s easy to forget the Titans had a sneaky late season addition of middle linebacker Zach Cunningham, a player who instantly elevated their already good rush defense. A good running game in the playoffs is important, a diverse passing game may be even more important in this contest. Joe Burrow has played as well as any quarterback in the league of late, and he’s going to need another strong performance if the Bengals want to advance to the AFC Championship round. The Titans made a massive improvement season over season in their pass defense, and just how far they’ve come will be the biggest determinant in the outcome of this football game. Cornerback Kristian Fulton has performed well, and safeties Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker have both had really nice seasons. It’s beyond those roster spots that should concern the Titans against the Bengals. Janoris Jenkins is one of the more inconsistent corners in the league and the depth behind him is not great. Assuming the Titans pay a lot of attention to Ja’Marr Chase, this could be a game where Tee Higgins, who was quiet a week, ago blows up. As always, Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah also play a big part of this offense and will need to make plays in the limited times their numbers are called.

THE TENNESSEE TITANS ON OFFENSE:

It’s virtually impossible to fully handicap the Tennessee Titans offense entering this football game without understanding what the availability and durability of running back Derrick Henry will look like. Signs point to Henry being active for the game, and it’s worth noting that head coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Ryan Tannehill both believe they can run the football with our without Henry. That’s a fair point against a Bengals defense that was middle of the pack during the regular season, and will be without defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, who was lost in the game versus the Raiders. The duo of D’onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard are capable of giving the Titans a solid running game Saturday, but Henry could truly be the difference-maker if he’s healthy enough and has the stamina to be a weapon. No matter what happens with the rushing attack for Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill is going to have to do more than he’s done throughout the second half of the season. That sounds crazy considering he guided the Titans to the number one seed, yet it’s ultimately true. There shouldn’t be any obstacles for Tannehill as his offensive line is completely intact, and his receiving corp is as healthy as it’s been basically all season, mainly A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. The Bengals secondary has been pretty good and has the ability to matchup at least initially with the Titans receivers. Eli Apple has been an unexpected pleasant surprise, and Chidobe Awuzie gave the Bengals exactly what they hoped for when acquiring him via free agency. For as well as they’ve played, they’ll still have their hands full with Brown and Jones if they have to cover for more than a few seconds, or an initial route. That’s where the key battles of tackles Taylor Lewan and David Quessenberry versus Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard comes in. The underrated Bengal edge rushers can cause havoc if they’re able to win their matchups and allow Cincinnati to drop in coverage. Hendrickson enters the contest coming out of the concussion protocol, and his effectiveness is one of the big keys in this game.

KEY STATS:
– The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
– The Titans are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 home games

The Titans are 8-0 ATS with an extra week to prepare under Mike Vrabel
PUBLIC MONEY: – Cincinnati Bengals 51%

THE SKINNY:
The BetCrushers have studied this game up and down through as many angles as we can looking for an edge. Despite the exhaustive search, we simply cannot make a strong case in any real direction as this seems like the trickiest game, in a tough weekend to handicap. Expecting a close game, traditional logic would point to taking the underdog and getting the hook past the key number of three. This especially seems wise if you believe in keeping things simple, and taking the better quarterback. However, something just seems anything but traditional about this matchup. We’ve stated all season long that this is a process for the Cincinnati Bengals, and one that they’ve been ahead of expectations with. The process seems like it’ll come to an end as Cincinnati is simply still just a little bit away from a run at a Super Bowl title. We’ll give a slight lean to the home team, but clearly, no wager on this game.

BetCrushers Lean: Tennessee Titans -3.5
Tennessee Titans 24, Cincinnati Bengals 20

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

vs.

San Francisco 49ers (11-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -6 (-110)
Over/Under 47.5 (-110)

The Green Bay Packers have a physical matchup against the San Francisco 49ers following their bye during the Wild Card round

The Green Bay Packers will once again host a divisional round game as they hope this is the season they can get over the Championship game hump. When you’re the number one seed, you aren’t afraid of anyone coming into your building, but one has to wonder if they would have preferred a different matchup than the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday? Matchups can be everything in the National Football League, and if any team can lock horns with the Packers, it’s not the Rams, it’s the group from San Francisco. The 49ers will look to use their strength and creative scheme to wear down the Packers defense, and hope their defense can get enough pressure on Aaron Rodgers to keep this a low-scoring contest.

THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS ON OFFENSE:

The 49ers enter their road matchup in Green Bay with a little uncertainty at the quarterback position. Fresh off of the ringing endorsement that Trey Lance is the future, Jimmy Garoppolo guided the team to a big win in Dallas. Garoppolo was banged up heading into the game, and left it in presumably even worse shape with his shoulder beat up. Head coach Kyle Shanahan expects Garoppolo to start, and that’s a really good thing for this San Francisco ballclub. Jimmy G has taken his share of due criticism, but he absolutely gives this team the best shot to pull off the upset against the Packers. We’ll start with stating the obvious, Garoppolo and the Niners have to take care of the football. In cliché terms, he needs to be a really effective game manager, not hurting his team. The game against the Cowboys should have actually not even been as close as it was, were it not for a really bad and untimely interception. Mistakes like that will end the season of the Niners really quickly, and with against an opportunistic defense like the Packers, it’s a real concern. Green Bay may have Jaire Alexander working back into the lineup, which would add some nice depth behind rookie Eric Stokes and pick up of the year, Rasul Douglas at the cornerback position. Rounding that secondary out with safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage, it won’t be easy to throw the football, even with a player like tight end George Kittle on the roster. Fortunately for San Francisco, they do have a slight advantage in the trenches so they should be able to slow down the pass rush of the Packers. Green Bay managed to piece together a rush all season despite missing some key pieces on defense, but it’ll be a little tougher against the likes of Trent Williams and the offensive line for the 49ers. Now that we’ve covered the passing game, let’s dig into where the real fight is going to take place between these two teams. It’s no secret that San Francisco is going to try to run the ball and run it a lot against the interior of the Green Bay defense. The Packers biggest achille’s heel is the fact that they can be pushed around a bit in the running game, as evidenced by their allowing over 4.7 yards per rush during the regular season. That’s a big problem when facing the most creative rushing attack in the entire league behind mastermind Kyle Shanahan. Rookie Elijah Mitchell will see a lot of carries between the tackles, and we know we’ll get some looks of Deebo Samuel out of the backfield. On the topic of Samuel, outside of Aaron Rodgers, he’s the best player on the field, in a game full of some really elite talent. The Packers have to find a way to take away Samuel and force complimentary players like Brandon Auyik and others to beat them. Watch the first series for the 49ers on offense, if their offensive line is pushing the Packers backwards, we’re going to have a really good game. If the Packers are standing their ground, they could end up winning big.

THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:

In almost any matchup you can find clear advantages for the Green Bay Packers offense that go beyond just the talent of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That’s no exception in this contest. as Davante Adams has to be pretty pumped to be facing a San Francisco secondary that has given up it’s fair share of big plays this year. There’s some give and take for both teams here as the 49ers are as healthy in the secondary as they’ve been, and playing better than they have all season. On the opposite side, the Packers will get veteran slot receiver Randall Cobb back, and possibly Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari. The re-addition of Cobb to the lineup won’t draw a ton of media attention, however it could be really important for Rodgers in the short and quick passing game. The 49ers dodged one bullet as it looks as though their talented linebacker Fred Warner avoided serious injury and should be a go for this game. Warner is an every down backer who will play a critical role in slowing down running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, and supporting in pass coverage. The unknown injury news is with defensive end extraordinaire Nick Bosa who has a short week to try to clear concussion protocol. You don’t normally think of a typical defensive end as being a determining factor in handicapping a football game, but in Bosa’s case you probably should. Even though he isn’t the only player in their front seven who can get it done, taking him out of the rotation is a big blow in the overall production of that unit. While it seems there is a lot to unpack with all of these moving parts, let’s simplify things a bit and even dumb it down. Aaron Rodgers has played quarterback as well or better than anyone in the league this season and loves playing at Lambeau Field. The simple question to be answered is, can the 49ers get pressure on Rodgers and force him into an ultra-rare mistake, or even a fair share of punts, or will Rodgers have his way as he has with most defenses this season?

KEY STATS:
– The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Packers are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 games at home
– The total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 games for the Packers
PUBLIC MONEY: – Green Bay Packers 53%

Let’s take another simplified look at this football game. Aaron Rodgers is playing at home in Lambeau Field, with an extra week of rest and preparation against an injured Jimmy Garropolo. This is the Packers all the way, right? In terms of winning the football game, it sure seems that way. With a spread sitting at -6, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to consider teasing the Packers, as it’s tough to see them not finding a way to win this football game. After all, they are undefeated at home this season. We all know in sports betting that there is a big difference between winning and covering a spread. Even though we’re figuring Green Bay will find a way to end up with the W, the Niners being 6 point underdogs seems almost disrespectful. For starters, they match up really well against the Packers. And we’ve seen them manhandle them once before in a similar situation. We have this game more as a GB -4 as this should be another tight one. As long as San Francisco doesn’t fall behind big early, they should make this an absolute battle for the Packers. Give us the points here.

BetCrushers Lean: San Francisco 49ers +6
Green Bay Packers 27, San Francisco 49ers 24

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

vs.

Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4)
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-105)
Over/Under 48 (-110)

Fresh off of his first playoff win Matthew Stafford leads the Rams to Tampa to face Tom Brady and the Buccaneers

THE LOS ANGELES RAMS ON OFFENSE:

Just when people start to question Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense, they run right through the Arizona Cardinals, on land and through the air. Stafford quieted the critics, earning his first playoff win, in a solidly consistent performance that saw Cooper Kupp actually pretty quiet for most of the game. That’s a scary thought for the remaining teams in the playoffs if the Rams can find their way to success without Cooper Kupp being a focal point of the offense. Don’t count on Kupp being as quiet as he was a week ago for one simpler reason, the Rams may not be able to run the ball as effectively as they have in recent games. While it’s true that Tampa had some uncharacteristic challenges stopping the run toward the latter part of the season, the return of some key pieces on their defense should be able to match up against the Rams offensive line in the trenches. The Rams opted to give Cam Akers a lot of work in the Wild Card round, and he looked strong coming off of his injury. It appears Akers may end up as the more dominant back from here on out, but it’s Sony Michel’s versatility that is a better fit against the Bucs run defense. There will be some sort of a timeshare between the two backs, and if Akers doesn’t get going early, the Rams may elect to go with whoever is having more success. Even though we spent some time looking at the running game, let’s be blunt here, this is all about how well Matthew Stafford performs against a suspect secondary. If Stafford can take care of the football and involve others besides Kupp, like the recently hot Odell Beckham, Jr., he should move the ball through the air. Normally we discuss the importance of taking care of the football with young quarterbacks, but in this game, the veteran who plays a cleaner game will decide who ends up with the win. Sean McVay emptied the bag of tricks a week ago, let’s see if he’s got some more tricks up his sleeve against this Tampa defense?

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

The potent Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense enters the Divisional round pretty battered and bruised at every level but the tight end position. The team hopes to have Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II back at the running back position, but are undoubtedly going to be limited again at wide receiver. Perhaps more importantly, the team could be playing without either Pro Bowl tackle Tristan Wirfs or center Ryan Jensen, or both. Entering the game with the Eagles, head coach Bruce Arians stated publicly as long as he had Tom Brady at quarterback and they could protect him, they’d figure out how to score points, which they did. The assignment gets tougher with or without the critical offensive linemen against a Los Angeles Rams defense that seems to be finding their way just in time for a playoff run. Aaron Donald poses a problem for Brady, who can generally navigate around edge rushers like Von Miller, but can look ordinary when pressure is in his face. If the pocket is pushed into Brady, and he doesn’t have his trusty checkdowns, that could pose a very big problem. The Rams also finished the season strong against opposing runners, so having to face their front seven with a hobbled RB room is also not ideal. Additionally, the Rams are one of the rare teams that can matchup with wide receiver Mike Evans, as Jalen Ramsey will draw a lot of snaps against the Bucs top wideout. When you start piecing the puzzle together, it actually starts to sound rather dire for Tampa on the offensive side of things. Before we start feeling too sorry for them and burying their chances, we should probably swing back around to the fact they have the greatest quarterback to ever play the game going for them. And happens to be playing about as well as he ever has in his illustrious career. Brady is the ultimate “X” factor, the question is, can he topple the aggressive Rams defense when he’s void of some really important pieces around him?

KEY STATS:
– The Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games

The total has gone under in 7 of the last 10 games for the Saints
PUBLIC MONEY: – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63%

Another game that seems to be somewhat split on the outcome between sharp bettors. You can make the case that you’re getting some value with Tom Brady between the Buccaneers injury woes, and off of the dominant performance of the Rams against the Cardinals. Of course Tampa also has the advantage of both playing at home, and having an extra day of rest and preparation. The flip side is that the Rams should be able to throw on Tampa, and could potentially get after Brady with a fierce pass rush. Another game that we’re going to pass on directly, but we’ve got a play involving this game at the bottom of the article. For fun, if we have to pick this game, we’ll take the greatest quarterback of all time, in a close win.

BetCrushers Lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Los Angeles Rams 22

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

Buffalo Bills (12-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-5)
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-110)
Over/Under 53.5 (-110)

Patrick Mahomes is calling the Chiefs contest with Josh Allen and the Bills a potentially epic battle

The home teams dominated in the Wild Card round, and no one was more impressive than the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. After a slow start in the first quarter against the Steelers, Patrick Mahomes was dialed in as the Chiefs offense scored seemingly at will. The Bills are also coming off of one of the best offensive performances in NFL history as quarterback Josh Allen guided the team to what some referred to as a “perfect game” on offense. These teams met in Arrowhead earlier in the season with the Bills bringing home an important 38-20 win, but they’ll face a much hotter Kansas City team this time around. In what looks like it’s shaping up as this generation’s Brady/Manning, we’ll watch to see if Josh Allen can get his team past the Chiefs, or if KC can keep their quest for three straight Super Bowl appearances alive.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

When you possess the ball seven times in a football game and score seven touchdowns, all while never reaching a fourth down, it’s safe to say that your offensive is clicking at the right time. The even better news for the Bills is the defense they’ll face on Sunday in Kansas City is not as stout as the Patriots defense they dismantled in record fashion. The not so great news is that they’ll have to take the show on the road in one of the noisiest venues in the NFL in Arrowhead Stadium. Quarterback Josh Allen has actually played a little better on the road than at home this season, and played really well in their first contest, so Bills fans are hoping that the homefield advantage for Kansas City isn’t anything the team can’t overcome. Allen should be fine as he continues to make people shake their collective heads at the fact he wasn’t voted into the Pro Bowl, it’s the Bills offensive line that will need to adjust. During the Bills recent four game winning streak and Allen’s hot play, the Buffalo offensive line has been markedly better than during the middle of the season. In fact, they haven’t allowed a sack in over a month. Some of that is due to Allen’s mobility and extending plays, something he’ll need to continue on Sunday. When games get tough, both Allen, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll are more inclined to rely on the running prowess of the young quarterback. Speaking of running, Devin Singletary has provided really nice balance since assuming nearly 85% of the snap count at running back. He’s been running hard and setting the tone from a physicality standpoint. We can breakdown running all game, but when you’re facing the Kanas City Chiefs, you’re going to have to outscore them at some point. In the first contest it was tight end Dawson Knox who led the team, and he needs to be an important factor again. The Bills are deep at wide receiver, which means Knox will draw a lot of single coverage and have room over the middle against the zone. The Chiefs need to make the Bills earn it, and keep the receivers of the Bills in front of them. When we check the box score after this game, it won’t be the amount of catches that guys like Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis have, it will be the yardage. Are they grabbing five and six yard passes, or are they getting over the top for big and explosive plays?

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

For the “Patrick Mahomes is broken and the Chiefs offense has been figured out” crowd, it was a gentle reminder when the team put up five touchdowns in eleven minutes last week that this offense is still electric. It’ll be a little tougher against the Bills number one rated defense than it was against the Steelers, but make no mistake about it, they can get things done. Everything starts up front with their offensive line as the passing game they want to run needs time to allow routes to develop. The Bills don’t have a monster pass rusher, however they do rotate eight defensive linemen, and their relentless push has been able to generate pressure with their front four pretty consistently all season. They’ll occasionally bring extra pressure with linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, and even with their safeties, however their main objective is to get pass rush with just four. For a game that has a lot of exciting star power, it’s ultimately going to come down to which team can perform better in the trenches to both provide big plays, and avoid negative plays. The Chiefs may have found something extra offensively with the recent emergence of Jerick McKinnon at the running back position. The former Viking and Niner has looked fast and powerful as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. Regardless of the health of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams, look for the Chiefs to continue to feature him a bit if he’s successful at all early on. Despite owning the top rated defense in the league, the Bills are vulnerable against the run, especially since they’ve shown in their last two meetings with the Chiefs that they intend to play a deep cover two defensive scheme. If the Chiefs can stay committed to the run, they should be able to move the sticks. When it’s time to throw, Patrick Mahomes has done a nice job recently at spreading the ball around to whoever is getting open. Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson have all been more involved as teams have focused on Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. The Bills did a nice job on Kelce and Hill as several of their below average yards came late in the game during some garbage time. Don’t expect a complete repeat of that, particularly for Tyreek Hill this time around as the Bills won’t have the services of their All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White. The shutdown corner always Buffalo to do so much from a scheming standpoint, and depth at the corner position is the one area where the Bills don’t have a lot of luxury. Fill-in corner Dane Jackson has not been great in relief, nor does he possess great speed. That hasn’t caught up to the Bills just yet, but when you look at the teams they’ve faced since White’s injury, there haven’t been a lot of top receiving weapons on the ledger. The one team that did possess the depth and speed to spread them out was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is also the one team that lit their pass defense up. The similarly constructed Chiefs will undoubtedly study that game film and look to exploit matchups in the secondary. Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy whipped up some really fun and creative plays in the Wild Card round, and if KC can get into the redzone plan to see a lot more of that. At the end of the day though, the Chiefs (and both teams really) need to make sure they’re getting touchdowns, and not settling for field goals if they want to win this game.

KEY STATS:
– The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Chiefs
– The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 games for the Bills

– The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
The total has gone over in the last 6 games for the Chiefs
PUBLIC MONEY: – Buffalo Bills 53%

Remember a few seasons ago when the Rams and Chiefs played the classic barn-burner on Monday Night Football? Not that we want to set up unrealistic expectations to be disappointed, but this game has all the makings of one that could end up as a classic. Both of these teams, and more specifically the Chiefs are a different team than when they faced each other earlier in the year. Many people believe this is basically the “Super Bowl” of the season, and it’s hard to disagree. These teams are 1-2 in our rankings and metrics, and this should be a really close football game also. Despite the fact that the Chiefs defense improved vastly in the second half of the season, and the Bills having the top ranked defensive unit in the league, look for a lot of points Sunday night. The Chiefs will stay hot and take advantage of the absence of Tre White, and Josh Allen will be able to carry the team on his back to make this a competitive game. The weather looks good in Kansas City, which lends itself to hitting an over, something that has happened in the last 6 games for the Chiefs. The winner will likely be the team who has the ball last, gets a fortunate break, or makes a big stop on defense.

BetCrushers Lean: Buffalo Bills +2
Buffalo Bills 35, Kansas City Chiefs 33

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

If you enjoy great football, many analysts believe that this is the best weekend of the entire year in the NFL. All of the teams left in the tournament play at a high level, and the stars will certainly be out in all of the matchups. The betting angles for the Divisional Round are not quite as beautiful in our estimation though. As a result we’re slimmer than normal for our playoff picks, as we simply don’t want to force something that isn’t there.