The Southern 500 at Darlington ushered the 2020 postseason in style. Throwback Weekend at The Lady in Black delivered an excellent race where nearly all of the 16 Championship contenders were in the mix. Now the Cup Series moves north to Richmond for the second installment of the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs. Will it deliver another great racing performance and profit in our accounts?
The Stars Were Bright at Darlington
It seemed that nearly all of the 16 playoff drivers tried to squeeze into the Top 10 throughout the Southern 500. Realistically, only two of the Championship contenders were non-factors that night. We had low expectations for Ryan Blaney at the Track Too Tough to Tame, and he followed suit by finishing 24th. Matt DiBenedetto also struggled to find his groove and settled for a disappointing 21st. On the flip side, we saw Brad Keselowski battle all the way back from a shredded tire and a big Darlington Stripe for an 11th place finish.
Martin Truex, Jr.’s late pass of Chase Elliott for the lead was way too close for comfort, slamming them both hard into the wall. They finished 22nd and 20th, respectively, though those results do not match how well they ran. Truex and Elliott led 310 of the 367 laps but left South Carolina with little to show for it, especially considering just how important every single point is right now.
As foretold by the opening odds, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin also dominated in their own rights. The Closer capitalized on the MTJ/Elliott dustup and captured his second Southern 500 title. The finish was anything but uncontested. Austin Dillon drove the hell out of his #3 Camaro in a final-lap surge that fell just short of Harvick’s Mustang. Hamlin was fast as well, but missed pit road late in the race. This doomed Denny’s chances to win his third Southern 500. Unlike 2017 where he missed the pits early and recovered to win, this year’s miscue took place too late to rebound from.
In Kurt We Trust
I put all of last week’s handicapping emphasis on Kurt Busch and it paid off. The Southern 500 is a test of stamina and durability that Kurt has generally passed in recent years. Crew chief Matt McCall made a bold decision to stay on the track in Stage 1 when the leaders went in for new tires. Busch shocked everyone with his ability to keep pace on old tires, ending Stage 1 in 5th place. A poor pit stop lost most of his gained track position and the late caution from MTJ stymied all the momentum from fresher tires.
With about 30 laps to go, my wife looked over at me and asked “You’re sweating this now, aren’t you?” Despite the confidence that Kurt Busch has instilled in me this season, I actually was. The caution evened the playing field and he restarted 12th to Aric Almirola’s 6th. Kurt’s ability to drive the hell out of his Chevy on older tires proved to be the difference maker, as the race finished on a long green flag run. He made up several positions and gained more than enough ground to finish ahead of AA by about two seconds. We cashed the matchup at +125 and the Top 10 at -112 for a solid start to the playoffs. Is this the beginning of a new streak that could rival the 9-0 run snapped at Daytona? I can only hope so.
Richmond’s Role in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs
Kevin Harvick wasted no time to log his first postseason win this year. The Southern 500 victory guaranteed his spot in the Round of 12. Barring multiple disasters, you might as well reserve a seat for him in the Final Four at Phoenix. The Closer has to be chomping at the bit to make the season’s final run in the desert – a track where Kevin has won nine Cup races, including a stretch with six victories in eight contests. You can just about say the same thing for Denny Hamlin, who won the fall 2019 race at Phoenix.
Four playoff drivers finished in the Southern 500’s Top 5, and nine were in the Top 10. The “outsider” Erik Jones pushed himself to a 4th place finish, maintaining his Top 10 streak at Darlington. Jones has now placed no worse than 8th in all six Cup Series races there. He is racing for his next job and not the Cup Series Championship, but Richmond has been less amenable to him in his short career.
The 14 drivers below Harvick and Hamlin must continue to scrap for much-needed points at Richmond to stay afloat in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs. Drivers like Aric Almirola who have not sustained much success at Bristol – the final race of this Round of 16 – recognize just how important this weekend is. This is much more than “survive and advance”, as all of these guys need to rack up as many points as possible to avoid the successive cuts leading up to Phoenix.
Thriving on the Short Superspeedway
Despite not being an elimination race, Richmond plays a pivotal role in deciding who continues in the 2020 Playoffs. The 3/4-mile track differs significantly from its short track counterparts Bristol and Martinsville because it is a D-shaped oval. Drivers can reach higher speeds with this configuration that is more akin to Charlotte or Michigan, except that it is a fraction of the length. It’s an OG track unlike any other, making past performances and track-specific trending form very important to my handicapping.
If you guessed that Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are aces at Richmond, you’re just about right. Harvick has Top 5ed eight of the last eleven races here, while Hamlin finished 6th or better in eight of the last nine. The last win between the two of them came when Denny took the checkered flag in 2016. Each has three Richmond wins on their resume and are primed to get it done Saturday night under the lights.
JGR’s Recent Dominance at Richmond
Joe Gibbs Racing has developed a strong foothold on this 3/4-mile track. After all, Martin Truex, Jr. scored the 2019 sweep the year after Kyle Busch took both of the 2018 contests. JGR’s Big 3 has a combined eleven wins at Richmond, with Denny Hamlin contributing three victories. Although Hamlin has not won here since the 2016 playoff race, he’s been anything but a no-show. Since breaking out of his Richmond cold streak in 2015, the #11 team has finished worse than 6th just once in the last nine Cup races. Expect Denny to be in contention this weekend.
6X Richmond winner Kyle Busch went through a cold patch like teammate Denny Hamlin did a few years back. Before the 2012 playoff race, Kyle had won each of the four previous Richmond spring contests and finished outside of the Top 5 an astounding three times in his first 15 Cup races here. Though he may not be in Championship form, Busch is still very dangerous on the 3/4-mile. Since the 2015 Federated Auto Parts 400, the #18 Toyota has three runner-ups and those 2018 two wins. Plus, Busch led 303 of the 800 laps in last season’s races after the come from behind victories the year prior. Will Kyle finally get the monkey off of his back this weekend by scoring his much-needed first win of the 2020 season?
Changes On Top of the Box
Post-race infractions at Darlington result in substitute crew chiefs for Kyle Busch and Clint Bowyer at Richmond. Although this obviously breaks up the driver-chief continuity, it may not be completely bad news given their existing relationships:
Zipadelli, who is the competition director with SHR, is a two-time champion atop the box with Tony Stewart. He has served as a fill-in crew chief for Bowyer in the first Michigan race his year (where he finished 19th) as well as the organization’s Xfinity Series car driven by Chase Briscoe, where he guided the young driver to three wins in four races.
Canter works as the crew chief for the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in the Xfinity Series. The entry is a part-time one that has only been driven by Busch and Denny Hamlin in 2020. Canter and Busch won the Xfinity race in May of 2020 at Charlotte. He also serves as the Test Team Manager for JGR’s NASCAR Cup Series program.
Clint Bowyer, Kyle Busch to have fill-in crew chiefs at Richmond – NASCAR.com – September 8, 2020
The BetCrushers Betting Card
The opening odds for the Richmond installment of the 2020 playoffs feature three of the hottest Cup drivers. Expecting Hamlin and Harvick to be anywhere but at the top is foolish given how dominant they have been this season. Martin Truex, Jr.’s 2019 Richmond sweep and strong closeout to the 2020 regular season earned him a spot next to them. After that, only four other drivers opened at 10/1 or better. In fact, everyone else outside of the top seven is priced above 20/1! As usual, I’m looking elsewhere on the betting menu for Saturday night’s card.
Joey Logano +125 vs. Brad Keselowski
In full disclosure, this line slipped from Joey Logano being a +125 underdog to -105 overnight. I post our plays ASAP to the BetCrushers NASCAR page so our followers can book bets ahead of any line moves, but on many occasions these matchup prices shift before the handicap is published. My point in keeping this as our first featured play this weekend is that the pendulum could swing back or keep moving away from Logano. In fact, this price moved to +105 Friday morning. So why is this position more price sensitive to me than the average one? This matchup is a dead heat as far as I’m concerned.
Team Penske has a pair of legitimate Final Four contenders in Logano and Keselowski. They sit 3rd and 4th in the standings, respectively, and come into Richmond in decent form. If anything, I could argue that Joey has a slight edge in that department with seven Top 10s out of the last eight races, with Daytona’s fiasco being the lone blemish since Kansas.
These guys have traded blows here since Logano joined Penske in 2013, though Joey has come out on top in nine of the last 14 Richmond races as teammates. However, Keselowski was victorious in the last two playoff contests. I should note that Joey started 28th in the 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 and Brad was the pole sitter. That aspect will be less of a factor in Saturday night’s race as Logano will start 2nd, ahead of Keselowski in 9th. One can make a legitimate case for either driver in this scenario, so give me +125 for Joey Logano to win the coin flip matchup against Brad Keselowski.
Kurt Busch +105 vs. Ryan Blaney
This is another wonky matchup where my position is based on the “wrong” driver being a plus-money underdog. Our regular readers know that I have not been shy in backing Kurt Busch the last couple seasons. But it has to be the right spot for me to confidently fire away. Admittedly, Richmond is currently not a track where I am willing to hammer Kurt in the Top 10 market like last week at Darlington. This play is less about Busch and more about his opponent.
Ryan Blaney is undoubtedly a shining young star in the NASCAR Cup Series. But his back is against the wall in this second race of the playoffs at Richmond. Finishing 24th last week at Darlington did him no favors, sticking him in last place amongst the 16 Championship contenders. Blaney’s forte is not racing at Darlington, and it is even less so at Richmond. Bristol, however, is Ryan’s best chance for a strong finish before the field is cut to just twelve drivers. Will the pressure lift his performance on Saturday? It sure seems that the oddsmakers are leaning that way with this matchup price.
It’s All Relative
Team Penske’s youngest Cup driver raised his floor on the 3/4-mile since he hopped in the #12 Mustang in 2018. He had just one Top 20 finish (18th) prior to joining that powerhouse, and has since settled into a tighter range of 17th-25th in the four races since. Blaney’s level of performance at Richmond may be higher in recent years, but it still lags that of Kurt Busch. Interestingly enough, these two finished next to each other in the last two playoff races here to a 1-1 split. Busch placed a subpar 18th in both contests, which are his worst Richmond results since spring 2014.
It took Blaney’s best Richmond result of 17th last fall to notch his first head-to-head win over Busch in eight races. Kurt has been very steady at this track with ten finishes no worse than 11th in the 14 races dating back to 2013. Does it concern me that Busch has disappointed in the last two Richmond playoff races? Absolutely. I have look at it this way though: Kurt’s worst performances here in years were right there with Blaney’s best. The Senior Busch starts the race in 8th with a slight advantage over Blaney in 15th. Matchups are a handicap of relativity, and this one pits two drivers with very little overlap in track-specific strength. I’ll happily take Kurt Busch with a plus-money return over Ryan Blaney, who has not shown me enough to be a significant favorite in this spot.
Kicking Off the 2020 NFL Season
There’s been way too much uncertainty in the world this year, but the NFL marches on with the 2020 season. Yanni cranked out our NFL previews and has the weekly handicaps on lockdown. Don’t miss any of our football betting advice or NASCAR features through the end of the season! Connect with us on Twitter or subscribe below for inbox alerts:
