The AL West was front and center all throughout the last offseason. Texas was set to move into its new airplane hangar-esque stadium while the Angels scored prized free agent Anthony Rendon, joining forces with all-world player Mike Trout. Even so, all of this mundane activity was overshadowed by Houston’s sign stealing saga and injury concerns with their ace. Oakland seized the opportunity and pushed their way to an AL West title with little resistance. In fact, the Athletics finished as the only team of the five with a winning record. But Houston got the last laugh by eliminating Oakland in the ALDS. Now after a busy offseason for these teams, it looks like the 2021 AL West is back up for grabs.
2020 Division Winner: Oakland Athletics
2020 AL West Standings
- Oakland Athletics (36-24)
- Houston Astros (29-31)
- Seattle Mariners (27-33)
- Los Angeles Angels (26-34)
- Texas Rangers (22-38)
Oakland Athletics 2021 Win Total: Open 87.5, Now 86.5
2020 Result: Over 32.5 (36-24)
2020 was a good news/bad news type of season for the Athletics. Oakland’s 60-game domination of the AL West could not prevent another early exit from the playoffs at the hands of a sub-.500 team. Their stranglehold over rival Houston – 7-3 in regular season – slipped when the Astros flipped the script and won the ALDS series 3-1. Despite yet another postseason letdown, there are plenty of positive takeaways from the Athletics’ regular season. The A’s rallied after losing stud third baseman Matt Chapman on their way to a 17th AL West title. And Oakland gets nothing but love for cashing my +330 ticket to win the division without much of a sweat.
The Kings of Clutch were a perfect 6-0 in extras last season. In fact, Oakland put an exclamation point on the MLB’s first extra-inning game of 2020 with a Matt Olson grand slam. A big part of the A’s success in these critical moments was their top-notch bullpen. Closer Liam Hendricks put up career-best strikeout and walk rates, a 1.14 FIP, and just one homer in 25.1 innings. Clearly though, a consistently-dependable relief unit requires multiple lock-down arms. Joakim Soria, Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, and Yusmiero Petit were fantastic in their relief roles, even if Petit significantly outproduced his underlying metrics. Regardless, the A’s bullpen was deep and highly effective.
Oakland’s offense and rotation settled out in the neighborhood of my expectations – firmly above average. This is impressive, considering that the A’s lineup was held back by Matt Chapman’s season-ending injury and shortstop Marcus Semien’s regression from a huge 2019. Robbie Grossman helped offset Semien’s lack of production at the plate with an uncharacteristic .482 slugging and 8 homers. In a similar light, the Athletics’ core of starting pitchers – Bassitt, Montas, Manaea, Fiers, and Luzardo – combined for a solid 21-15 record in front of their excellent bullpen. Of those five, Chris Bassitt was the most reliable with 0.86 HR/9, 3.59 FIP, and nearly 6 innings per start.
Conflicting Signals in the Field
Defense was such a strong suit for Oakland in their 2018 & 2019 seasons – a big turnaround from the two prior years when the A’s fielding was a huge liability. Where I’m mixed up is how metrics from the shortened 2020 season send conflicting signals about this unit’s proficiency. Fangraphs.com‘s defensive runs saved (DRS) signals a down year, while ultimate zone rating (UZR) points to them being quite good in the field. If baseball-reference.com is your preferred source for MLB data, those folks also reported a similar split. Sorting through this mess is an important aspect of projecting Oakland’s success in 2021. So here’s a look at the numbers:
Oakland Athletics Defense, 2016-2020 (*unadjusted 60-game schedule)
| 2020* | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRS | -19 | 36 | 54 | -49 | -70 |
| UZR | 15.6 | 39.9 | 36.7 | -35.4 | -36.8 |
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 81 – 85
It’s a story as old as time – well, at least as long as this Billy Beane/John Fisher management and ownership tandem has been in charge. Oakland let several key players leave town in free agency as their market value exceeded the club’s budget. Departures include key relievers Liam Hendriks and Joakim Soria plus infielders Marcus Semien and Tommy La Stella. Fresh off of a division title, I have to ask which direction this team is headed in. Do these cluster personnel turnovers give younger players a legitimate shot to impact the team, or do they signal significant concerns about depth?
Position Players
Khris Davis very well may have peaked after his fourth straight .247 season in 2018. Not that Davis’ batting average signaled how potent his bat was, as much as 160 homers and a wRC+ no less than 122 in that span. His recent struggles made him expendable, especially with Oakland solidifying their outfield with guys like Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, and Stephen Piscotty. The A’s early February trade with Texas shipped off Davis for twelve-year veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus. Elvis should be a reasonable defensive substitute for the departed Marcus Semien, though this swap could shed close to 20 points of wRC+ on offense.
What To Expect From the Defense?
I never answered the question about the A’s fielding in the season recap – so what’s the verdict for the 2021 season? First off, Matt Chapman’s absence for the final 20+ games of the season contributed to their negative DRS. Fortunately, the All-Star third baseman should be ready to roll at the hot corner for opening day. Third-year catcher Sean Murphy made good strides behind the plate last season, helping to offset the defensive hole that Tony Kemp presents at second base. Plus, Oakland presents a better defensive outfield with Robbie Grossman leaving for Detroit. And it all starts with center fielder Ramon Laureano, who leads this solid group as a dynamic fielder that plays the Coliseum very well.
My expectation for the Athletics’ fielding is back towards league average, especially because DRS can get warped over a smaller sample. Additionally, there is enough anecdotal evidence to support the claim that the A’s defense simply underperformed last year. My outlook, however, is not quite on the level of their 2018 & 2019 banner years in the field – losing Marcus Semien at shortstop does not help, even if he had a down year in 2020. In the grand scheme of things, I still expect the A’s to get back towards neutral in terms of runs saved this season. As for the offense, my outlook points to a small decline but still somewhere in the league-average range.
Rotation
What I like about this Athletics rotation is how it is stocked with four pitchers in the prime of their careers. Staff ace Chris Bassitt wouldn’t be the ace on top tier rotations like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Padres – but his impressive 2020 season makes you wonder if his trajectory will continue higher. After two years of putting up a 3.00+ K/BB ratio and a declining WHIP, you can make a strong case for Bassitt to mimic his breakout season of 2019.
Bassitt’s comrades of Jesus Luzardo, Frankie Montas, and Sean Manaea are just as suited to lead this crew. These talented pitchers each offer 2-3 WAR of value to the Athletics and could finish the season as part of the AL West’s best starting rotation. And in my opinion, the rotation’s upside rests with 23-year-old phenom Jesus Luzardo. Jesus didn’t follow up his 2019 big league debut with a breakout – though expecting the fruits of another .160 BABIP season was unreasonable. I think we got a better indication of Luzardo’s true talent range in his nine starts last season, and one more year of experience should yield a high-3.00s FIP campaign. Barring any big setbacks, this kid is earning his way toward becoming Oakland’s next ace.
According to Statcast, Manaea yielded a career-high 44.6% hard hit rate in his eleven starts last season. Yet he’s such a good ground ball pitcher that the damage was limited. Plus his projections look good with his fastball/changeup velocities back up after shoulder surgery in 2018. Frankie Montas, on the other hand, had a rougher follow up to his breakout 2019 season. His strikeout numbers popped back up, but so did his walks and home runs. That led to plenty of speculation as to how much of his drop-off resulted from kicking the PEDs that sidelined him for 80 games. For my handicapping purposes, I expect a better year from Frankie under the assumption that his home run rate settles back down and he delivers a 4.00-FIP type of season.
Bullpen
Oakland made some free agency waves as Liam Hendricks and Joakim Soria both split. That’s a pair of significant holes at the top of the A’s bullpen. So right as Spring Training fired up, they pulled in Trevor Rosenthal as their closer for $11M. He’s had a whirlwind last couple years and really has me twisted on what to expect. It’s a tossup to me whether he regains his St. Louis form and gets close to replacing Hendricks.
Aside from the Rosenthal signing, the bullpen’s offseason highlights include re-signing inning-eater Yusmeiro Petit and inking twelve-year veteran Sergio Romo. Never mind that both of them are in their upper 30s, they signed for $2.25M each. Hell, setup man Jake Diekman just turned 34 – though I expect him to be Oakland’s most effective reliever with a mid-3.00s FIP. That’s a range that the A’s would love for JB Wendelken to be in. After all, that’s what he’s done so far in his young MLB career. The reality is that the 2021 version of the A’s bullpen will fall short of their top-tier AL West-winning unit. Age and injury are big concerns without much depth, and those factors could hold them back down the stretch.
WAGER: Under 87.5 Wins (bet 2/28/21)
Don’t get me wrong, this is an above-.500 team. It’s the kind that just squeezes by though. Their lineup and defense are good, rotation is decent, and bullpen is in a “house of cards” type of situation. Oakland caught the AL West in a vulnerable position last year where the Astros sleepwalked through the regular season and the Angels suffered from their typical pitching woes. As you’ll read in the team capsules below, I do not see the Athletics’ major foes being as down as they were in 2020. Sure, 83 wins for them is a huge departure from their 97-win equivalent season. And still an 88-win expectation is just too much to ask for in a “rising tide” environment. After several days of re-evaluating this win total, we made our move and booked Under 87.5 wins.
Houston Astros 2021 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 87.5
2020 Result: Under 35 (29-31)
Anger, disgust, levity, or however else you reacted to the Houston Astros’ offseason with, the circus eventually took the field without opposing fans to boo them. MLB’s COVID-related adjustments indirectly shielded the Astros from heckling and enabled them to slide into the postseason at 2 games under .500. The 2020 postseason expansion proved to be the solution to their problem, with Houston limping into the playoffs as the second-best team in the AL West. But once they got there the team turned into a wrecking ball. They swept Minnesota, then enacted revenge on division rival Oakland before challenging AL pennant winner Tampa Bay in seven games of the ALCS.
Grizzled veteran starter Zack Greinke unleashed another year of sub-90 MPH sorcery at the ripe age of 36. The loss of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees and Justin Verlander to injury forced Greinke to pick up a ton of slack. And that he did. Greinke posted a career-low walk rate but could not shake an inflated .321 BABIP and his lowest strand rate in a decade. Before you call that unlucky, consider that the eephus-hurler’s recent spike in barrel rate and hard hit percentage. Even so, Zack’s 2020 highlights are pretty damn sick:
The Houston rotation was quite respectable by any measure. And they were far from a one-man show. Lance McCullers’ Tommy John recovery season was good as a whole, but his home/road splits were astounding. Nearly every metric – FIP, K/BB ratio, WHIP, BABIP, etc. – was dramatically worse when he pitched away from Minute Maid Park. That is certainly something for us handicappers to monitor early in the 2021 season. But the ‘Sros pitcher who surprised me the most was Framber Valdez. The longtime Houston farmhand slashed his walks, was stingy with the long ball, and put up very good numbers despite a few shaky starts. Valdez delivered a 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP with a solid 60.0% ground ball rate – a combo that could be duplicated if he continues to keep his walks in check.
In Need of a Supporting Cast
Houston’s resilient rotation took significant pressure off of an uncharacteristically-mediocre bullpen headed up by veteran Ryan Pressley. The club suffered a huge blow after losing closer Roberto Osuna to injury after just four games. Brad Peacock was also M.I.A. for most of the season, leaving the Astros relief duties in the hands of a lesser-known cast of characters. Pressley answered the call rather successfully, closing out 12 games with a 2.81 FIP. From there, however, the experience gap was vast between the seven-year vet and his supporting cast. Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb, and Blake Taylor performed respectably in their first years of MLB action.
Although the bullpen scratched their way to a decent season, their decline on offense was considerable. The Astros’ championship-caliber hitting was nowhere to be found in the regular season. Naturally, most of the early-season speculation centered around the loss of production due to their sign stealing operation being torpedoed. But there is much more to the story. Houston’s offense suffered from a lack of depth as well as a series of unfortunate circumstances. A prime example is Jose Altuve’s massive drop-off in production that was likely exacerbated by a mid-season right knee sprain.
Numbers wise, Altuve has never played this bad before. Compared to 2019, his batting average dropped from .298 to .219 and his OPS dropped from .903 to .629. This isn’t a good sign for a reliable player as he enters his 30s. Hopefully, these struggles were only caused by an injury.
Houston Astros 2020 Year in Review: Jose Altuve slumps – climbingtalshill.com – October 24, 2020
Was this karmic retribution or just simple regression? The answer could lie somewhere in between, and all we have are numbers to go by. Look at Houston’s offensive production and slugging percentage through the years:
Houston Astros Offense (2015-2020)
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wRC+ | 99 | 125 | 109 | 121 | 101 | 108 |
| SLG | .408 | .495 | .425 | .478 | .417 | .437 |
League average run production is a big disappointment for a team that made two World Series appearances in their previous three seasons. For starters, only five of the lineup’s mainstays played in at least 50 games. George Springer and Michael Brantley provided the lion’s share of productivity in 2020, with additional gains from Alex Bregman and Martin Maldonado. But of the Astros position players that made 150+ plate appearances, four of them realized considerable declines in the shortened season:
- Carlos Correa (97 wRC+) dipped below 100 for the first time.
- Jose Altuve (77 wRC+) had his first sub-124 season since 2013.
- Yuli Gurriel (79 wRC+) posted his least productive season.
- Josh Reddick (95 wRC+) may have plateaued after his 2017 high point.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 92 – 96
Something tells me that this Astros offense is ready to explode again. Despite a short season of average production at the plate, Houston flexed their muscles in the playoff and flashed back to their World Champion years. In 2021 they’ll have to do it without their excellent center fielder George Springer, who left in free agency for Toronto. But somehow they made .300-hitter Michael Brantley reconsider heading north along with him for the steep price of $16M/year. That was clutch, because losing two of their best hitters in the same offseason could have doomed the ‘Stros chances at regaining the AL West.
Position Players
Losing George Springer is undoubtedly a big hit to the Houston lineup. But let’s be honest, my 2020 baseline for this offense is suppressed. So the expectation for the Astros’ bats to rebound into a well-oiled machine is more than enough to move the needle upwards. Their established core of Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and Michael Brantley is still very dangerous. Plus the team gets their powerful DH Yordan Alvarez back after missing most of the 2020 season with a knee injury. Is the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year bound to repeat his 178 wRC+ breakout? I highly doubt it, but how does 140-ish sound?
Alvarez isn’t the only young upstart in this Astros lineup. Right fielder Kyle Tucker’s second year in the big leagues was quite successful at the plate (.268/.325/.512; 126 wRC+) and respectable in the field. All indications point towards Tucker being an everyday player in right, alongside 26-year-old Myles Straw. Straw must take advantage of this opportunity to be the Astros’ regular center fielder with George Springer in Toronto. Unfortunately, his second year was much less successful than Tucker’s – a 40 wRC+ dud. We’ll have a better idea of where this young speedster is at throughout Spring Training, especially regarding pitch recognition and approach at the plate. Kyle’s 4.7% walk rate and 25.6% strikeout rate just won’t cut it in the MLB unless he’s hitting .250 and smashing 30+ homers.
Houston added a great piece behind the plate with 33-year-old Jason Castro. Castro joins Martin Maldonado to form an excellent defensive duo at the catcher spot. They may not do much on offense, but these aging backstops should complement each other and grind out most of a 162-game season together. Castro and Maldonado bring crucial experience and leadership to help some of Houston’s younger arms succeed.
What About the Doom and Gloom?
It’s no secret that there was plenty of self-inflicted distractions surrounding this lineup heading into the 2020 season. And when most of Houston’s offensive stalwarts struggled at the plate, many people pointed to their past success being a product of smoke and mirrors. You can’t blame the critics when the entire infield looked like a pack of imposters though. But here’s the bottom line – of the four remaining Astros players who were big letdowns, only first baseman Yuli Gurriel is realistically projected to be less than impressive again next year. The 36-year-old should still be good enough to bump his average up by about 30 points from a paltry .232.
But the prognosis is much better for mainstays like Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. The middle infield tandem of Correa and Altuve should join Michael Brantley around 120 wRC+ with about 70 homers amongst the three of them. Altuve reportedly put a ton of offseason work in both offensively and defensively. I’m doubtful he gets back to his prime form, but 3+ WAR is good enough to help get this lineup humming again. As for his partner at shortstop, Correa will make a strong run at slugging .500 after a power outage in 2020.
Even stud third baseman Alex Bregman looked off of his game last season. I mean, things could be a lot worse than .242/.350/.451 with a .254 BABIP. Bregman was still good enough to earn a 123 wRC+, but that was down 34 points below the prior two seasons. This year, however, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t get back to hitting .275 with 30+ bombs. Plenty of things can throw a monkey wrench in the plan, but for this good-fielding Houston team it’s all systems go at the plate. The AL West is chock full of average pitching staffs that are ripe for the picking. Expect a big year for this offense.
Rotation
Now, the improvements that I see in the Astros offense simply do not translate over to their starting pitching. 37-year-old Zack Greinke leads the charge again while Justin Verlander is on the shelf. Yep, their ace is 37. But Greinke is not the kind of guy to count out purely based on age. He’s blown his impressive career 3.98 K/BB ratio out of the water during his brief tenure in Houston. Both seasons have been 5+ WAR equivalents, yet I see several projections tagging him for a career-worst home run rate and 4+ FIP in 2021. That seems a bit of a reach, considering that Greinke has posted a 4+ FIP just once since 2006. Even if he’s only good enough for a 3-WAR season, you can pretty much rack him for 30 starts and 180 innings – something the bullpen can truly appreciate.
Zack joins Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers as three guys who are very good #2 starters. Valdez turned a lot of heads with a sinker/cutter combo that improved both his strikeout and walk rates. But is that for real? Looks like we should expect a few more walks and home runs over a full season, but 3 WAR from Framber is very possible. And the same goes for McCullers after his strong return from Tommy John surgery – although he has to be much better on the road. He topped off his comeback season in prime form with a 2.88 FIP and 0.94 WHIP in his final eight starts that even included a disastrous start in L.A. And all signs point towards a near-peak season from Lance.
As good as those three are, they don’t make a full rotation. The jury is still out on #4 starter Jose Urquidy after getting hit hard last year. He has just 70.2 big-league innings under his belt, so 2021 could realistically fall anywhere between 0.5 – 1.5 WAR. And the final rotation spot could be a revolving door if Christian Javier stumbles after a respectable rookie season. A .194 BABIP in 54.1 innings just screams regression, especially if Javier struggles again with serving up the long ball. Worst case, Brandon Bielak gets another call up from AAA and does about the same. Without a true hammer for an ace, I have to be realistic with Houston’s rotation and expect a small step back from a middling 2020 season.
Bullpen
The Astros bullpen, however, underwent significant changes in the offseason. Free agents Brad Peacock, Roberto Osuna, and Chris Devenski all left for greener pastures. But those guys only combined for 10.1 innings last year anyhow, so my view of this bullpen is more about how their replacements were upgraded. When this trio went down, a pair of top prospects took advantage of the opportunity. 25-year-olds Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor each pitched 20.2 innings in their rookie seasons. Paredes (3.05 ERA/3.63 FIP) and Taylor (2.81 ERA/4.55 FIP) earned their keep, giving some promise for another decent campaign.
Their big addition came when Pedro Baez defected from the World Champion Dodgers. 32-year-old Baez adds a veteran arm that will set the table for Ryan Pressly, who saved 12 games in his third straight season of sub-3.00 FIP. Baez had his ups and downs as a Dodger, but odds are Pedro will perform better than most of Houston’s lower-rung bullpen guys. It’s a league-average unit that should hold their own despite all the turnover. Plus, if Greinke, Framber, and McCullers eat their share of innings they have much better odds of holding it together for 162 games.
WAGER: AL West Champs +165 (bet 1/23/21)
WAGER: Over 86.5 Wins (bet 2/18/21)
We rode the A’s to a rocking chair division winner last year as a way to fade the Astros with an excellent return. This season, however, I’ve flipped on Oakland and project Houston as the team to beat for the 2021 AL West crown. It won’t be nearly the runaway that 2020 was, as the ‘Stros will be pushed all summer by Oakland and L.A. But this is a 90+ ball club and I believe that will be good enough to take the division. Houston is poised to have one of the strongest offenses in the American League and surpass the 87-win mark despite a subpar pitching staff.
Seattle Mariners 2021 Win Total: Open 72.5, Now 72.5
2020 Win Total: Over 23.5 (27-33)
If there’s one thing to take away from this Seattle club, don’t get fooled by how they start the season. Last year they fell to a 7-18 record before scratching their way back to a respectable .450 – a mark that was good enough to finish third in the AL West. This came on the heels of a 2019 season where a scorching hot 13-2 start gave way to a 68-94 finish. Seattle’s (relatively) strong ending to the 2020 season impressed me, considering how the franchise has been a seller in recent years. For example, a seven-player trade with San Diego shipped off budding star Austin Nola just one day before last year’s deadline. Ty France was good enough in the near term to compensate for Nola’s loss, but the dazzling play of center fielder Kyle Lewis provided the biggest distraction from another losing season.
The 2020 AL Rookie of the Year smacked a team-leading 11 homers and scored 37 runs for an offense that generally struggled. Lewis’ surge and ten-year Seattle veteran Kyle Seager’s return to form at the plate carried the load for a lineup otherwise devoid of consistency. Seattle exhibited a wicked combination of a 25% K rate and rock bottom .144 ISO. In fact, five players with at least 100 plate appearances struck out 27% of the time or greater. Even Kyle Lewis wasn’t immune to this malady. Perhaps the most egregious was first baseman Evan White windmilling his way through the season at an astonishing 41.6% clip.
Night and Day on the Mound
With the support of a decent defense behind them, Seattle’s rotation was refreshingly decent after a rocky 2019 season. Their 4.29 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, and 1.15 HR/9 were all mid-pack or better. Headlining this nondescript group was Marco Gonzales and his insanely-low 2.5% walk rate. The third year starter posted an excellent 3.10 ERA/3.32 FIP and was justly rewarded with a 7-2 record. Outside of a Justin Dunn’s brutal season – note: walks and homers do not mix well for a pitcher – Marco’s crew thrived. Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, and Nick Margevicius kept the ball in the park and suppressed hitters with sub-1.30 WHIPs.
Unfortunately, things had a tendency to slip away once the starters handed the game over to the bullpen. The Mariners relievers struggled to put batters away and were often punished for issuing too many walks. The bullpen was a double-edged sword that hurt more often than helped. For instance, the trio of Taylor Williams, Yoshihisa Hirano, and Yohan Ramirez combined for 13 of the team’s 15 saves. Unfortunately, they also were the unit’s most egregious issuers of walks. The Seattle bullpen’s 1.56 WHIP begged for trouble, especially when coupled with the second-worst home run rate in the league. That was a disastrous recipe rivaling that of the Phillies’ bullpen.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 69 – 73
Pretty much anything that this organization did up to Spring Training took a back seat to former team president Kevin Mather’s controversial statements. So you can’t talk trash about your team’s players to the Rotary Club? Anyways, drama aside, Seattle had a very quiet offseason that included signing James Paxton to come back to the Mariners for one year. It may be a pillow contract that lets Paxton prove to the league that he’s worth a bigger contract somewhere else, but this club will take him back nonetheless.
Position Players
So, expectations are deservedly low for this Seattle offense again. Last year’s bottom-five 91 wRC+/.144 ISO output was certainly underwhelming – and things do not look much better for 2021. Despite some promising looks – and having the AL RoY – the team’s prospects for scoring runs are less optimistic. The bottom half of the Mariners lineup are a .220/.285/.400 agglomeration of guys like Jake Fraley, Dylan Moore, Evan White, and their catchers. Remember, White struck out in 41.6% of his plate appearances last year! Don’t get me wrong, Tom Murphy proved in 2019 that he is a very good defensive catcher. But he missed last season with a broken foot and could yield more playing time to Luis Torrens, a 24-year-old who has half as many MLB innings behind the plate as Murphy does.
What about the good half of Seattle’s lineup? Award-winning center fielder Kyle Lewis looked dynamic in his 126 wRC+ campaign, but what to make of the .341 BABIP that came with it? Or the near-30% strikeout rate? I have a hard time seeing him maintaining that level of production at the plate if those looming negative metrics persist. At least Mitch Haniger is set to return from a series of cascading injuries that started with a ruptured testicle from a Justin Verlander foul ball in 2019. The question for Mitch – and for third baseman Kyle Seager – is whether they can return to a 120 wRC+ form. And if either does so before the trade deadline, will they finish the season with Seattle? Fortunately, this crew plays decent enough defense to take the edge off of their offensive woes.
Bullpen
Management left the Seattle lineup mostly as-is, but their bullpen is another story. Sweeping changes were a must after last season’s general failure to keep the team alive in the latter innings. Closer Rafael Montero was brought in from Texas to head up a unit that posted the worst FIP (5.81) in the majors last year. In fact, the Mariners traded their acting closer Taylor Williams to San Diego mid-season after racking up six saves in as many opportunities. That left Yoshihisa Hirano and Yohan Ramirez to fill in – which they did with flair. And by flair, I mean with lots of walks and some home runs.
Montero, who was 8-for-8 in save opportunities last year, gives Seattle a fighting chance in the late innings. He’s a 4.00-FIP righty who became an effective reliever after moving to the Rangers in 2019. The Mets parted ways with their former top prospect after Rafael underwent Tommy John surgery, unsure if he actually had major-league talent. At least the 36.2 innings he pitched in Texas showed that he may. A 162-game schedule is a different story. Unfortunately, Montero’s supporting cast is still full of high-4.00s/low-5.00s FIP relievers like Kendall Graveman and Casey Sadler. This may give a guy like Kenyan Middleton an opportunity to finally get enough reps and show his worth. Look, this is still a 5.00-FIP bullpen that will struggle at times. But gaining Montero and shedding some of last year’s worst offenders gives them a chance not to be MLB’s worst in 2021.
Rotation
This season will be a homecoming for free agent James Paxton as he returns to the team that traded him to the Yankees a few years back. The sad part of this reunion, unfortunately, is that the big lefty continues to battle the injury bug. Paxton has an incentive-laden contract that protects the club’s downside financially, but what should they expect on the field? If all goes well, he’ll start 20-ish games and be a suitable #2 behind Marco Gonzales with a 4.00 FIP. That’s far from the sub-3.00 FIPs that got him the big contract in New York, yet I’m sure the Mariners would love to get a high-2s WAR season out of him. And that’s entirely possible if he gets those home runs in check.
When it comes to staff ace Marco Gonzales, why shouldn’t we expect him to surpass 3 WAR after last year? Consider that he gave up just 8 home runs and 7 walks in 69.2 innings – with 67 strikeouts! Although it’s very unlikely he fully carries that high level into this full season. Count on Gonzales and Paxton as a 4.00-FIP duo with a 5+ combined war? You bet. As for the rest of the Mariners’ six-man rotation, don’t expect too much. Yusei Kikuchi bounced back from his home run-laden MLB debut with a harder-throwing 2020 season. It gives us a better picture of what Kikuchi should be, which is a solid mid-4.00s-FIP, 2-WAR guy that chews up 150+ innings.
Justus Sheffield could reach that level after a stellar season though. Seattle will be pleased to get 25 solid starts out of their 24-year-old #3 starter. Then again, Sheffield has pitched just 94 innings in the majors so my expectations are tempered. He joins Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn to round out an inexperienced bottom half of the rotation. Don’t expect Flexen to repeat his 2.74-FIP KBO season against MLB talent, so consider a 1.5-WAR year a success. Dunn’s rookie season, on the other hand, was full of home runs and walks. And because he struggled so much even with a super low .179 BABIP, it’s tough to see Justin crack 1 WAR this year. 2021 is going to be a tough season for this ball club and their fans without much improvement from 2020.
Los Angeles Angels 2021 Win Total: Open 83.5, Now 83.5
2020 Result: Under 31 (26-34)
There was plenty of buzz in Orange County when manager Joe Maddon and third baseman Anthony Rendon – the second-biggest free agent position player of the offseason – brought their World Series Championship clout westward. Unfortunately, the high wore off quickly once the season finally started. Los Angeles stumbled to a 9-22 start and played themselves out of postseason contention in a hurry. A subsequent 15-9 run put them within striking distance of the second AL West playoff berth, only to be edged out by the Astros and Mariners. Ultimately, the Angels missed their win total by five games and fell to fourth in the division for the fourth time in five seasons.
Given the stop-gap rotation bolstering, the Angels are clearly relying on their offense to make them contenders. MVP Center fielder Mike Trout’s big bat and huge range makes him their Mr. Dependable. Then LA made a huge offseason move in snagging World Champion free agent Anthony Rendon. I expect a 5-6 WAR season from Rendon, rather than his recent 6-7 WAR level. Even so, the Angels will happily take a 30 HR/100 RBI output.
2020 MLB Season Win Totals: AL West – BetCrushers.com – March 11, 2020
Most clubs dream of having Mike Trout roaming center field and Anthony Rendon at the hot corner. The L.A. Angels assembled an offense that produced at a top ten level, except their fielding graded out as one of the league’s worst. Rendon and his fellow infielders were solid, but the outfield consistently failed the Halo pitching staff. Brian Goodwin, Justin Upton, and Mike Trout all played a role in an Angels defense that cost their team runs. Talk about uncharacteristic for a club whose fielding has been one of the best several years running.
Searching for Arms
First-year Angels manager Joe Maddon had his hands full with a scattered collection of arms. Starter Dylan Bundy came to L.A. in an offseason trade with Baltimore as a move to add veteran depth to the rotation. Instead, Bundy delivered career-best ERA, FIP, WHIP, as well as strikeout, walk, and home run rates. He put the AL West on notice right away by tossing a complete game on August 6th against the Mariners. Sure, Bundy reaped the benefits of throwing in a pitchers’ park versus Camden Yards. However, Statcast data show that his hard hit rate was low and opponents’ average exit velocity was down over 1 mph.
Fellow starters Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning rounded out an impressive front of the rotation. This was much needed as L.A.’s pitching was a big question for this club coming into the season. Shohei Ohtani and Griffin Canning dealt with ongoing injury issues, and the COVID-delayed season actually helped Canning return in time for the season opener. Unfortunately, the back end of the rotation was brutal. 23-year old Patrick Sandoval was shelled for 10 home runs in 36.2 innings, while former Atlanta starter Julio Teheran was a disaster. Teheran finished the season with an 8.62 FIP and 1.76 WHIP, giving up 12 bombs in just 31.1 innings.
As a result, the lower rotation spots heaped a heavy workload onto the bullpen. Fortunately, Mike Mayers and Felix Pena took on their share of the load by logging a sub-3.00 FIP in a combined 56.2 innings of relief. On the other hand, a couple of Maddon’s go-to bullpen arms failed to produce. Ty Buttrey was anything but smooth – yeah, I said it – saving just 5 of his 9 attempts. He struggled to reproduce the high strikeout numbers of his first two seasons, resulting in almost 2 extra runs of ERA and 1.5 of FIP. In whole, the Angels relief unit was well above average and shouldered the 250+ innings very respectably.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 81 – 86
What’s it going to take to get the Angels into the postseason? There’s quite a bit to like about this team after all. First and foremost being the generational talent that is Mike Trout. He has yet to play in the postseason, so hopefully new general manager Perry Minasian has a clear path charted to the playoffs – and that it doesn’t take too long to get there. And the way I see it, this year’s club should be good enough to vie for a wild card with the likes of Toronto, Minnesota, and Oakland. Of course, that’s always their expectation.
Position Players
Free agency allowed the Angels to swap out shortstop Andrelton Simmons with Jose Iglesias, who is on his fourth team in as many seasons. Of concern is that Iglesias may have reached peak productivity with Baltimore last year, slashing. 373/.400/.556. However, Simmons was making almost three times as much money as Iglesias – and both seemed to be converging with respect to value for their teams. Although both had uncharacteristically unspectacular 2020 seasons in the field, Jose should be just fine filling in at shortstop. He pairs up with a good defensive second baseman in leadoff man David Fletcher. Throw them in with Rendon’s strong bat and solid glove, and this infield should be a tough one to crack.
L.A.’s outfield defense might be on the sketchy side again, requiring one of Mike Trout’s “on years” to keep them respectable. 33-year-old left fielder Justin Upton may have something to prove after hitting just .204 last year, but we can almost count on him being a defensive liability. And with Jo Adell underwhelming in his rookie season, the Angels had to find an everyday solution for right field. Fortunately, the Cardinals basically paid them to take 13-year veteran Dexter Fowler off their hands. Despite his decline at the plate and in the field, Fowler offers a small tick up from Adell’s baseline last year. But let’s be real, here – this team cannot make the playoffs without Mike Trout delivering a 7+ WAR season with 40+ homers.
The L.A. infield has the talent to make up for some of their outfield’s shortcomings, but the Angels face a new deficiency behind the plate. Notable defensive catcher Jason Castro left for Houston and Max Stassi is recovering from hip surgery. So in comes 37-year-old Kurt Suzuki to share the workload with Stassi. Unfortunately, Suzuki is a really bad defender and could keep this defense from making any marked improvements in 2021.
Rotation
Dylan Bundy’s dominance in the shortened 2020 season was a surprise to many of us. And although a repeat performance is unlikely over a 162-game campaign, Bundy should be a durable mid-4s ERA & FIP starter. That’s the kind of reliability that the Angels need more of if they want to finish above .500. So Minasian brought in veteran free agent Jose Quintana to add another quality starter who will eat innings.
Quintana, who will turn 32 next week, pitched in just four games in 2020 while dealing with thumb and lat injuries. That’s hardly the norm, though: The thumb injury was a freak laceration suffered while he was washing dishes and resulted in the first IL stint of his nine-year career. Otherwise, he’s been the portrait of durability, averaging more than 192 innings per season from 2013 to ’19, with his lowest total being 171 in that last year. That durability would be welcome in Los Angeles, which has been notoriously unable to keep pitchers on the mound: Since 2017, just two Angels starters have eclipsed 150 innings in a season.
Angels Sign Jose Quintana, Who Is Still Probably Underrated – Ben Clemens, FanGraphs.com – January 20, 2021
Implementing a plan for your rotation around Shohei Ohtani has to be one of the most frustrating things as a manager. Instead, Joe Maddon intends to keep the six-man rotation concept rolling with Griffin Canning and Bundy’s former Orioles teammate, Alex Cobb. Cobb isn’t the sexiest pickup though, and definitely not the most reliable. Maybe the Halos are hoping to catch more lighting in a bottle like they did with Dylan Bundy. But in reality, Cobb’s role is to fill a rotation spot and eat some innings. And that’s just fine – the Quintana pickup and their overall depth should put L.A.’s rotation one step ahead of 2020.
Bullpen
L.A.’s ongoing struggles typically revolve around their rotation, though that did not keep the front office from bolstering their bullpen with
Cincinnati’s Raisel Iglesias in a trade for reliever Noe Ramirez and cash. The 31-year-old is fresh off of a career season (2.74 ERA/1.84 FIP) and joins forces with last year’s workhorses Mike Mayers and Felix Pena. But here’s the catch with these high-leverage pitchers – all three held opposing hitters to insanely-low home run rates.
Home Run Rates for Iglesias, Mayers, & Pena (2020)
| R. Iglesias | M. Mayers | F. Pena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HR/9 – 2020 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| HR/9 – Career | 1.05 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| HR/FB – 2020 | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.1% |
| HR/FB – Career | 12.9% | 13.0% | 14.8% |
Any realistic expectation for this trio has to account for their home run rates drifting back towards a middle ground. But even so, they should combine for 2+ WAR and keep their bullpen on the right side of league average. And as busy as Minasian was this offseason, he somehow remembered to grab a lefty for the bullpen. He signed former Brewer Alex Claudio to provide a veteran left handed option for Maddon. Both Claudio and Ty Buttery are the pivotal pieces for the Angels because things get quite murkier below them. If Buttrey regains his strikeout proficiency and Claudio gets his ground ball rate up from last season’s 46.6% to his typical 60+% level, this relief unit should be one of the best in the division.
Texas Rangers 2021 Win Total: Open 66.5, Now 66.5
2020 Result: Under 28.5 (22-38)
2020 was a real smack in the face to the Texas Rangers. Brand new Globe Life Field’s stands sat empty for 30 home games. Newly-acquired starting pitcher Corey Kluber tore a shoulder muscle after just 1 inning of work, sidelining him for the year. (Naturally, my money was behind him that afternoon.) Any buzz created by Texas’ new stadium was quickly squashed by the ugly product on the field. The Rangers were 12-21 and dead in the water by the time September rolled around. This left just one question: did this club finally hit rock bottom?
Injuries to longtime Texas middle infielders Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor forced manager Chris Woodward to get creative with his roster. Those injuries may have been a blessing in disguise as both veterans finished the shortened season below the infamous Mendoza Line. Plus, these two were lackluster in the field, dragging down a defense that was a net positive in years past.
Although Rougned is only 26, it is entirely possible that Father Time really hampered the 32-year-old Elvis. Their declines have been a work in progress, as opposed to promising utility player Nick Solak. Although he hit .268, Solak was another liability in the field – in part due to him being moved from one position to another to fill the Rangers’ holes. The injuries to Andrus and Odor also prompted Chris Woodward to move converted catcher Isiah Kiner-Falefa from third base to shortstop for part of the season. Kiner-Falefa helped this defense from being a bottom-tier unit, even if his bat left a lot to be desired – just like the rest of the team.
No Relief on the Mound
I had higher hopes for the Rangers’ starting pitching, but even this group failed to get on their feet. Adding insult to Kluber’s injury, the rotation unequivocally dropped the ball. Kyle Gibson, Mike Minor, and Jordan Lyles got shelled, contributing to this unit’s bottom-third ranking in most metrics. Lance Lynn provided a lone ray of hope, posting a 6-3 record behind the lowest WHIP and average against since his 2011 rookie year. But even Lynn was not totally immune to Texas’ overall downtrend, suffering his career-worst ground ball and home run rates. And just think that things could have been worse if they still played in their old launch pad of a stadium.
Oddly enough, the Texas bullpen was one of the team’s stronger aspects. Sure, they were still below average but the Rangers as a whole were bottom-of-the-AL barrel bad. Not too shabby considering that Woodward had to shuffle his bullpen after losing dependable reliever Jose Leclerc in the same game that Kluber went down. In his absence, Rafael Montero notched 8 saves and gave up just a pair of homers in 17.2 innings. Montero received fantastic support from the bullpen’s workhorse, 24-year-old Johnathan Hernandez. He earned a 5-1 record in relief by slashing walks, homers, and WHIP from his rookie season. All told, this club left a ton of room for improvement across the board.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 64 – 69
Last season’s big change came in the form of their new stadium. But after a 22-38 season, it was crystal clear that much more needed to change with Texas’ on-field product. For starters, the Rangers front office welcomed in former pitcher Chris Young as general manager. And Young got down to business ASAP. Texas was very active in overhauling their bench and bringing in three new starting pitchers. Change is certainly good when you’ve hit rock bottom, but is it enough to return dividends right away?
Position Players
Woodward’s chair shuffling of the lineup was a matter of necessity in 2020. Now those pressures are lessened as the early offseason decision to move Isiah Kiner-Falefa to shortstop was later accompanied by the Elvis Andrus trade to Oakland. Andrus became the odd man out with IKF sliding to short, Rougned Odor manning third, and former Tampa Bay up-and-comer Nate Lowe taking over at first. Whew, that’s a lot of maneuvering! But where I come from, if it ain’t working you better get to fixing it.
Lowe also joins a large contingent of poor defenders in Texas. Only two of Lowe, Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak, Sherten Apostel and Sam Huff can occupy the first base and DH spots every day, and the giant and oft-injured Joey Gallo might soon need to be penciled in there, too.
Rangers Pay a Steep Price to Add Another 1B/DH in Nate Lowe – Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs.com – December 10, 2020
So it sure sounds like at least one sharp player evaluator isn’t too high on the Rangers defense. I have them more in the meh range personally – it’s the offense that I am most concerned about. Everyone’s first thought when it comes to the Rangers scoring runs is Joey Gallo. Hell, the guy hit 40+ home runs in his first two full-time seasons with the team. But he hit around .200 and struck out a ton. Then the 2019 season came around and the dude was putting on a clinic until a couple injuries derailed the second half. Gallo slashed .253/.389/.598 with 22 bombs in just 70 games. So just when you think he’s got it figured out, he hits just .181 with his lowest ISO (.197) in four years. It’s this reason why I’ll still be on the fence with Joey until I see a couple months of the season.
Where’s the Beef?
If Gallo can’t put it together at the plate in 2021, who are the key cogs to grind out runs for the Rangers? In the opposite outfield corner, Nick Solak fits the mold of a .270 hitter with occasional power – not the 126 wRC+ debut guy from 2019. Solak has been used in the infield at times but doesn’t play any of those positions very well. Gallo, on the other hand, is actually a pretty good fielder. Maybe the spark comes from the new blood in first baseman Nate Lowe, although he’s more of a .260 with 20 homers hitter that won’t set the world on fire.
Free agent pickup David Dahl is a lot like Solak too, which makes a little more sense for this signing. He’s versatile, just not great in doing so. And realistically, that’s what the better hitters on this team are – one step up from replacement level. At least Woodward has an adaptable lineup that could platoon well with righties like Charlie Culberson and Khris Davis on the bench. I just can’t get there with this lineup right now.
Rotation
Only two of the Rangers projected rotation pitched for this team last year – Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. And neither was very good. Kyle Gibson went 2-6 and posted career-worst numbers in so many categories. Lyles was extremely disappointing in his 1-6 season and continued to lose velocity on his stuff. The good news is that Kyle should get back to where he left off in Minnesota, which is a mid-4.00s FIP, 2+ WAR starting pitcher. Probably not the type you want as your ace, but he may be the best they’ve got!
But Lyles, Mike Foltynewicz, Kyle Cody, etc. are pitchers that can deliver anywhere from 1.0 to 2.0 WAR. In my opinion, the rotation’s upside lies with new acquisition Dane Dunning. After an encouraging Tommy John surgery rebound season with the White Sox, the Rangers swapped starter Lance Lynn for Dunning. His impact won’t be huge this year, though, as the team has put an innings limit on him. Keep an eye on his command coming out of Spring Training, especially when it comes to his slider. With all of these moving parts, I can easily see how this rotation could also turn into its own game of musical chairs as it regains some respectability.
Bullpen
Now that Rafael Montero is gone, one would assume that Jose Leclerc slides right into the closer spot. But as of March 2nd, Chris Woodward has yet to appoint this position. Leclerc essentially lost all of last year and returns to Spring Training with quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding him. Throughout his 4+ seasons in the MLB, Leclerc has been a high-strikeout, high-walk type of pitcher that primarily uses a fastball/changeup combo. It has kept him out of home run trouble even when Jose has trouble finding the strike zone.
The good news with Texas’ relief unit is that it isn’t returning their 5.00+ FIP corps that struggled so much last year. Chavez, Goody, King, and Gibaut are all out. But apparently the club sees more in 25-year-old Brett Martin than the 0.89 K/BB guy that showed up in 2020. Martin joins a very inexperienced group of middle relievers that will get their shot in the majors – how long they stay all comes down to whether they can hold their own or not. In fact, only Leclerc realistically has more than one season of service time in the big leagues. There’s plenty of talent in this Rangers bullpen and in the rotation, for that matter. Unfortunately, the Texas offense will not pull its weight and get them above 70 wins. Maybe just one more year until everything gels…
2021 AL West Projected Standings
- Houston Astros (94-68)
- Los Angeles Angels (85-77)
- Oakland Athletics (83-79)
- Seattle Mariners (71-91)
- Texas Rangers (68-94)
Two Down, Four to Go
That wraps up the AL West, and ICYMI the AL Central preview is out as well. Be sure to check out the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – the home for our divisional previews and daily handicapping. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email notifications to catch our morning handicaps once the season is up and running. Best of luck this season!
