The dog days of summer usher a lot of new faces to the MLB diamond, especially on the pitcher’s mound. This means plenty of matchups that have lopsided lines and/or unproven pitchers at the major league level. All of this equates to a lot of passing on my part, including on Sunday’s card in toto. It was a successful 2-0 day for us with matchup wagers on the NASCAR New Hampshire Cup race, but Monday presents an opportunity to dive right back into baseball…
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Digging Deep: Rangers +110
Texas and Seattle are a pair of teams in deep funks. The Rangers have lost 7 in a row at the hands of Houston and Arizona. During this losing streak they have scored more than 4 runs only once. This is quite telling as the offense has been their calling card in the 2019 season.
Seattle is mired in their own skid in which they’ve lost 8 of their last 9 games. They’ve suffered in both aspects of the game; scoring more than 3 runs only twice and giving up 6 or more runs 8 times. Mike Leake and the Mariners offense combined for a near-perfect game on Friday by winning 10-0.
Despite the ongoing slump, the Texas offense is more capable of outscoring the Mariners in their current compositions. The Rangers are weaker against lefties like Marco Gonzalez so this factor must be tempered somewhat. Regardless, an edge goes to the Rangers at the plate tonight.
Don’t Expect Much on the Mound
Adrian Sampson returns to the rotation in the midst of a lackluster season. He gives up a touch too many home runs (1.76 HR/9) and gets squared up effectively (.334 BABIP). A possible bright spot on his 2019 resume includes 3 outings against Seattle, in which he posted 11.1 IP, 0 HR, 12 K, and a .267 AVG/.356 SLG against.
However, he last faced Seattle on May 28th and his production has gone downhill since then. He’s had highs and lows since 5/28, including a complete game and a pair of disastrous 3-inning starts. Overall, this period has been marked by 20.7% HR/FB, 2.38 HR/9, and 51.8% hard contact rates. It is unclear whether Seattle is in a position to fully take advantage of Sampson tonight.
Marco Gonzales has been a rock this year, starting 21 games and logging 120.1 innings. Although he’s been a dependable starter he has experienced plenty of ups and downs like his counterpart, Adrian Sampson. Gonzales is not a strikeout guy per se and can struggle with walks at times. This could be a dangerous combination against the Texas lineup, though he generally limits home runs (9.0% HR/FB) and hard contact (36.6%).
Gonzales has also faced Texas three times this season, giving up 10 runs, 2 home runs, and 16 strikeouts in 18 innings. For a guy who doesn’t make a living striking batters out, this is a relatively-strong strikeout rate against a particular opponent. Oddly enough, his last appearance against the Rangers was on May 28th as well. I can’t say that he’s had a significant drop-off or improvement since then like Sampson has.
Back the Better Team
It might be a stretch to consider one of these clubs to be a “better team” than the other, but I must say that Texas has an upper hand despite both currently experiencing negative streaks. Seattle is out of the playoff race altogether and has already made moves like trading Jay Bruce. Texas has played themselves out of the AL West but still clings to a 6.5-game deficit in the Wild Card standings.
Chris Woodward and his veteran club should be highly motivated to get their shit together and beat the lowly Mariners. I rarely weigh motivation and other psychological factors too highly in the MLB regular season because it is a daily grind and not a weekly sport like football. Arguably, the time is now for this Texas Rangers team to put up or shut up.
Both teams have “meh” bullpens that aren’t the most reliable units in the league. Either starter could go 5-6 innings, though this will likely be dictated by the opponent’s offensive production. I don’t see much of an advantage on the mound for either side.
This is a coin flip game based on my handicapping so I lean strongly towards the +110 position. Add the potential for a motivated Rangers team and it’s a play. Sampson could lay a big egg and the offense could continue to struggle, but my money is behind Texas getting their legs back underneath them and pulling off the win. Seattle has faded hard this season and Texas has only recently hit a rough patch. I have more confidence in this Rangers team, so I’ll buy low on the Rangers tonight.
