No task seems too tall when a team is in a groove. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have Christian Yelich’s spot in the lineup come up when needed the most. Yelich was clutch against Kimbrel in the 10th and Hiura sealed the deal with a 2-run bomb of his own shortly thereafter. Milwaukee keeps winning at Miller Park and rescues Saturday’s -114 play on the Brewers.
Lester dealt 7 strong innings last night, but was yanked for a series of bullpen arms that proceeded to quickly give the game away. Milwaukee hit the Chicago bullpen hard and kept pounding away. 3 home runs later, the victory was secured. Chase Anderson and the Milwaukee pen did a solid job on their end to keep the Cubs offense in check.
The plot thickens in the NL Central with the Cardinals loss on Saturday. They hold a 1-game lead over both Chicago and Milwaukee, giving the winner of this afternoon’s series finale a shot at sharing the division lead. The Brewers are the hot commodity in the division now as the Astros could bring the Cardinals back down to Earth with another win today.
The second half grind continues for us as well. We’re staying at Miller Park in an attempt to improve on our modest post-ASB 7-4 record (+3.61 units)…
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Encore: Brewers -104
What will another gut-wrenching close loss do to the Cubs’ psyche? As far as I’m concerned, it’s a coin flip. Whether it’s motivate or deflate, I have yet to get my psychology PHD and must stick to what I can see with my own two eyes. And what I see is a Milwaukee team that is playing with intentionality and a hot hand.
I can’t sit here on Sunday morning and bash Joe Maddon for the puppet-master maneuvers with his pitchers. However, the 8th inning was a disaster for the rack of relievers brought in to quell a Milwaukee comeback while holding a 2-0 lead. Regardless of what impact these head games have (or don’t have) on the club, I see the Chicago bullpen advantage leveled out in today’s matchup. This is important since I felt strongly about Chicago’s relievers in this series in yesterday’s article.
Quintana vs. Davies
Jose Quintana has been a stalwart in the Cubs’ rotation this season but may have stumbled onto tougher times lately. He’s given up 3 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 8 starts, though only 2 of those starts were on the road. Wrigley is its own animal with the inconsistent effects it has on keeping the ball in or out of the park on a daily basis.
Despite getting rocked by the Padres in his last outing, Quintana is not a consistent liability with the long ball (13.4% HR/fly ball, 32.6% fly ball rates). Other key metrics like his 1.37 WHIP, 38.4% hard contact rate, and 7.63 K/9 rate are solid. He logged 9.2 innings with 4 home runs and 11 earned runs in a pair of starts against the Brewers. Much of the damage was done in the April 5th start at Milwaukee, as he came back with a quality start at home on May 10th.
Zach Davies has been a guy many analytics handicappers have faded this season. My guess is his 3.17 ERA /5.08 xFIP differential is the culprit. This discrepancy could be due in part to his low strikeout rate (5.94 K/9) and reliance on outs through contact. Otherwise, I am in dark as to why there is that large of a gap this late in the season. He has a middling 1.36 WHIP like Quintana and a decent 36.3% hard contact rate.
Regardless, Davies has had a good second half to the season after limping into the break. A rough start against the Reds interrupted a solid run of 4 outings with only 2 earned runs and no homers. Zach had limited success in 2 early-season starts against the Cubs, going 12 innings with only a solo home run charged against him.
Mind Over Matter
I like Davies better than Quintana today. However, I handicap both guys as having a bell-curve distribution of probable outcomes. By that, I mean most likely they will each have a decent 2- or 3-run outing over 5 to 6 innings. But there is a reasonable chance either one will get shelled or have a dominant performance. Yeah, I get it, that’s not a very definitive breakdown…but this is where these guys are at right now in my opinion.
Chicago has lost 5 of their last 6 and dropped to 4-14 on the road against the NL Central. Their recent losses continue to be close and gut-wrenching. But these are professionals in a playoff chase that are not going to dog it on the field this afternoon. The Brew Crew is on a 5-2 run at home and 18-9 against division foes at Miller Park.
The offensive narrative remains the same as yesterday. I give an edge to Milwaukee for their current form, especially at home with a strong top half of the lineup. This Chicago series is sandwiched by days off on either end, so I cannot see Counsell sitting him or any other critical pieces out today. The same goes for Chicago; all hands will likely be on deck with a legitimate shot at a share of the division lead. Give me Milwaukee -104 without hesitation.
