When it comes to the starting pitchers in last night’s Reds/Rockies game, I was completely wrong. Roark got hammered for 13 hits, 3 homers, and 7 runs. Freshly-recalled Kyle Freeland did not give up a single home run or a walk. Walks and home runs needed to be the Reds’ tickets to success at Coors Field. Freeland ended up yielding 5 earned runs but the major damage was done against the Rockies bullpen that gave up 12 runs.
The biggest question I had heading into that game was whether the Reds’ offense could take advantage of Freeland. One long rain delay, 17 runs, and 24 hits later (not all against Freeland, obviously), they even the series with a 17-9 win and cash our +114 ticket. As much as I appreciate a nice 2-0 record for +2.14 units following the ASB and my return from the Alps, there’s plenty of work to be done…
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
Great Price for a Coin Flip: Giants +155
The Giants and Brewers have traded blows in the first two games of this series and the rubber match gets played this afternoon. Both games have been tight when the bullpens took over, then the real fireworks began. Milwaukee’s win Saturday night pulled them out of a 1-6 rut while taking some steam out of the Giants’ hot run, dropping them to 7-2 in their last 9 games (4-1 on the road).
Putting it mildly, the Giants have been on an offensive tear lately. They’ve been held to 1 run only once in their last 10 games, a period in which they’ve notched 7+ runs in 6 of those games. Milwaukee’s offense has cooled off from the early season though they still have the firepower to change a game quickly.
Another interesting reversal of roles on this Giants club is in their bullpen. Their relievers were a strong suit for them early, but some chinks in the armor began to show in early summer. They’ve been quite sketchy lately, especially in this series with the bullpen yielding 3 runs in each game so far. Milwaukee’s pen is generally tough to score on, though not impossible, as the Giants have showed us.
Showdown on the Mound
Tyler Beede gets the nod for San Francisco in the series rubber match. Beede has had a tough season so far, at least until June. He is yielding a lot of baserunners (1.66 WHIP), not getting a ton of strikeouts, and handing out way too many free passes (5.64 BB/9). This are key metrics that paint the picture as well as the 5.64 ERA does. A 5.24 xFIP generally supports this high season-long ERA.
Why take a financial position on Beede? It can’t all be about a surging Giants’ offense, right? I see some positive signs in the rookie’s last 4 starts, all against NL West foes, FWIW. Despite getting only 17 strikeouts in that stretch, he’s lowered his WHIP to 1.25 and ERA to 3.22. However, the 5.35 xFIP for those 4 games still jives with his season xFIP of 5.24 so I hate to put too much weight on his recent form.
The major concerns I still have with Beede are walks (11 in his last 4 games) and home runs (1 homer in 3 of those 4 games). However, Jhoulys Chacin has been plagued by those same issues this season. His 4.02 BB/9 and 1.49 WHIP are major contributors to a 5.40 ERA that is also supported by a 5.29 xFIP.
As opposed to Beede, Chacin has not been sharper lately. In his last 4 outings, he’s given up 5 home runs with a .357 BABIP despite stranding 88.0% of his baserunners. Strikeouts have been his key escape mechanism, notching 24 in this 4-game stretch. Chacin’s effectiveness will come down to whether the Giants can take advantage of walks and mistake pitches that can be turned into home runs.
Weighing the Pros and Cons
Both starters in this matchup are exploitable. Beede has shown some signs of respectability lately, though neither have been able to consistently go deep in their starts. This should put stress on a pair of bullpens that have seen considerable work so far in this series. They are aided by the extended rest from the recent break, with Melancon and Hader likely ready to go this afternoon when needed most.
With the recent success by the Giants lineup and some improvement from Tyler Beede, I handicap this game closer to a coin flip. A struggling bullpen could derail this one late but either team should be live in a close game like the last two have been. I’ll take my chances with Beede and San Francisco for the +155 payout.
