After an extended time overseas, it’s definitely good to be back. Baseball is back with a full slate, NFL preparations are heating up, and all is well in the handicapping world for the BetCrushers team. Before the All-Star Break, we were sharpening our approaches to live betting the MLB…and with some truly sketchy relief units these days, live betting is extremely fruitful.
Let’s dive into Friday’s slate and take a look at a solo shot for tonight…
LA Dodgers @ Boston Red Sox
Prepare to Pull the Ripcord: Red Sox +100
When I broke down the MLB slate Thursday night, a couple games fell into the category of “live betting potential”. LA/Boston is certainly one of them. Boston’s volatile bullpen has done a lot of damage this year, while the Dodgers manage to find ways to win that seem absurd (just ask the Arizona Diamondbacks last week). Winning teams have a knack for doing that, but damn, sometimes you’ve gotta scratch your head and wonder.
Outside of Ryu and Kershaw, the Dodgers are best known for the potent lineup and young home run hitters. Their offense was somewhat held in check going into the All-Star Break, struggling a bit against the Padres. Though their bats were on the quiet side, the LA pitching has been consistently solid and is generally reliable.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, is a team that was thriving at the plate before the break. Boston has an efficient offense that can convert runs fairly well and, truthfully, one that creates plenty of opportunities. Their bullpen is a unit that creates quality live-betting opportunities, so my laptop will be open as we approach the late game and prices get juicy. They cruised into the break on a 5-1 run, although those games were against Detroit and Toronto.
Home/Road Splits
Over-analyzing splits can lead to false estimations of players and teams. However, tonight’s starters had numbers that looked just impactful enough to adjust my metrics on them for this matchup. Assuming that most pitchers do better at home is understandable, but what do the numbers say?
Eduardo Rodriguez is generally a hit-or-miss guy that can be a disappointment at times. His 45.4% ground ball rate is solid and 29.1% hard contact is good as well. Let’s look at Rodriguez’ splits:
HOME .242 AVG, .371 SLG, 1.22 WHIP, .307 BABIP, 11.9% HR/FB
AWAY .288 AVG, .489 SLG, 1.45 WHIP, .338 BABIP, 17.9% HR/FB
Kenta Maeda has been pretty consistent lately, giving up 2-3 runs in each of his last 4 outings. He doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts but does a good job of limiting baserunners in general. Maeda has a great 24.1% soft contact rate and good 30% hard contact rate. His splits:
HOME .165 AVG, .224 SLG, 2.09 BB/9, 0.81 WHIP, .186 BABIP
AWAY .247 AVG, .324 SLG, 3.89 BB/9, 1.36 WHIP, .286 BABIP
Back to the Middle
Maeda has had much more success this season than Rodguez in the aggregate. When you digest the above splits, you see that they start to converge in several key metrics. I’d still argue that Maeda has an edge against his counterpart, but the increased walk rate, slugging, and BABIP red flags against a potent Boston lineup. Free baserunners are never a good thing in the MLB, let alone against one of the top offenses in the league.
I expect both teams to have some success at the plate, yet give the Red Sox a strong offensive edge that can offset Maeda’s prowess. The only positive about the Boston bullpen tonight is that they are at full strength and should not have any excuses about availability or freshness when they need to keep a close lead (or even a big one). My overnight bet was on the Sox, but I do have an itchy trigger finger on the live bet if things start to go south late.
