A combination of family matters and a lack of a convincing bet-on game led to a “day off” from wagering the MLB. I had an opportunity to run through Saturday’s slate late on Friday from the hotel and circled one game that looked like a viable opportunity. Arizona and Atlanta may provide in-game value depending on whether Grienke and Soroka look strong and the game starts slowly. But there’s only one game that I’ve eyed for a pre-game wager…
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Limit the Bullpen Exposure: Reds F5 (TBD)
The Reds just squandered a 7-0 lead to the Cardinals last night. Their Ace, Luis Castillo, takes the mound tonight to give them stability and confidence. Chances are, he isn’t going to pitch a full 8 or 9 innings and the Cincy bullpen is in terrible shape right now. Does this mish-mash of a Reds club have what it takes to rebound from a major letdown on Friday? After all, they had come so close to staying on the edge of relevancy in the playoff hunt.
St. Louis is hanging on the edge of the second wild card slot and would love nothing more than to hammer the Reds this weekend to climb the ladder. Their bats have come alive lately and could threaten Castillo’s dominance at Great American Ballpark. Can their starter, Miles Mikolas, duel with the Ace?
Play the Splits
Let’s cut right to the point. Castillo is king in Cincinnati and Mikolas is horrendous on the road. On face value, both of these guys have respectable numbers for the entire 2019 season. Interestingly enough, Castillo has laid a few eggs lately and Mikolas is fresh off of a complete game shutout against the Pirates.
Castillo sports a great 55.9% ground ball rate, 14.5% home run/fly ball ratio, and 35.8% hard contact rate. Walks can be an issue at times but his high-strikeout ability (10.77 K/9) gets him out of a lot of jams. He is truly king on the mound at GABP, where he has a controlling 0.28 HR/9 rate, .146 average against, 0.88 WHIP, and .201 BABIP.
Mikolas has shown flashes of brilliance like his complete game on July 15th. A 1.23 WHIP, 50.3% ground ball rate, and 37.6% hard contact rate are all respectable figures. It’s a totally different story when he’s away from Busch Stadium. He gets taken deep regularly (2.40 HR/9), does not fool hitters (.341 AVG, .362 BABIP), and puts a ton of guys on base (1.67 WHIP).
The Reds have enough at the plate to take advantage of Mikolas’ typical poor outings on the road. Castillo should be dependable at his home park and keep a surging Cardinals’ offense at bay. But I have next to no confidence in the Reds’ relievers right now, so the F5 bet is the way to go for me.
