I do all of my MLB handicapping early morning before heading to the office, so I often miss out on several games that are not on the board. I can be proactive at times when the starters are known and create a line range in which I would make a play. Yesterday’s Tampa Bay game was that type of scenario where I was willing to back them on the run line up to -120 but did not make the play when it opened around -130. Though they covered, I can accept that since I stuck to the program that has brought me success over the years.
Houston/Seattle presented a similar situation where I had a -115 run line ticket in the morning. Seattle switched to an opener which cancelled my ticket, then the game opened at -130 and drifted upwards. I did not pull the trigger above my -120 threshold and avoided an extra-innings non-cover. So those 2 games were a win as far as opportunity cost goes.
Pittsburgh played a tight first 5 innings on the arm of Chris Archer, who gave up an early homer then settled in for a very good start. And somehow, it was the Braves bullpen that gave up 3 late runs as the Pirates relievers made it interesting in the 9th but did not yield anything to Atlanta. My split first 5 inning/full game wager came through on both ends. I escape with a 1-0 day that improves the week to 3-2 for +1.14 units.
Oakland A’s @ Texas Rangers
Just Enough: Rangers +102
Brett Anderson leads the A’s into Arlington only 2 games behind 2nd place Texas. Anderson has been decent for Oakland this season with a solid 51.1% ground ball rate and 35.9% hard contact rate. He faces a very consistent Texas offense that is without the services of Joey Gallo. The Rangers have been a robust-hitting club all season, though their weak side is against lefties. They may put in a 2-run game here and there, but Texas typically doesn’t get cheated at the plate and will produce 4+ runs regularly.
Lance Lynn has been an unlikely source of quality starts, cranking out 5 in a row. Sure, he gives up 2-3 runs per game but eats innings and typically shortens exposure to their bullpen. The Rangers bullpen is shaky as a whole, though they have stabilized a bit lately and are actually producing no worse than Oakland’s has. I’ve graded these two relief units similarly for this game and give Texas the offensive edge despite not having Gallo.
Texas is churning out wins, going 7-3 (5-2 at home) in their last 10 games. Granted, their competition has been sub-par while Oakland has battled the Angels and Astros in the last 9 games and went 3-6 in that stretch. Both clubs’ current form has to be viewed as relative to their competition, though it’s hard to knock 7-3 regardless. Both pitchers should do a decent job tonight and turn it over to their bullpens in a tight one. Overall, the compilation of small edges (including Texas’ 22-10 record at home) makes this a play on the short home dog.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Cut out the Bullpen: Nationals F5 (TBD)
Erick Fedde has shown promise in his limited body of work as a starter this season. Though he is typically a 5-inning-and-out guy, Fedde has been very effective with a 52.8% ground ball rate and 22.7% soft contact/33.3% hard contact combo. Walks have been his nemesis but he keeps home runs to a minimum, giving up only 2 in 24.2 innings.
Young Nick Margevicius has stumbled upon a rough stretch lately, yielding 7 home runs and 18 earned runs over 17.2 innings in his last 4 starts. Washington’s offense has been humming lately and is in great position to take advantage of Margevicius’ struggles. The Padres’ offense has been good lately as well, but Fedde should be able to keep them relatively in check while the Nats take their cracks at Margevicius.
Despite their terrible bullpen, Washington has posted a 7-3 record in their last 10 games that includes a 4-2 mark on the road. Their relievers showed some signs of improvement last week but I think that’s not a true indicator of long-term progression. I like Fedde and the Nationals’ hitters in this spot, though I want nothing to do with their bullpen. This is a first 5 inning play for me, assuming I can catch it at -115 or better when that market opens today.
