Sunday wrapped up a down week with a 2-1 record that netted +1.00 units, despite going 6-8 for -2.11 in week 8. At week’s end, the season tally stands at -0.49 units. Not where we want to be by any stretch of the imagination but a down April is being corrected by a positive May (well, so far…there’s still 5 full days in the month).
The Minnesota Twins were a bright spot this week, bringing in +3.00 units on the 3 games we played them. In retrospect, we should have pounded them every day but that’s the beauty of 20/20 hindsight. Though the Brewers-Twins matchup today will be must-see TV, we’ll be on the sidelines as Michael Pineda stares down a potent Brewers lineup. A Minnesota win here in light of running Pineda out on the mound would say quite a bit about them.
Eduardo Rodriguez proved me wrong, as I expected the Astros to touch him up and give Verlander enough run support. The script was flipped by the Red Sox hitters as they won the game outright. Fortunately the run line was a plus-money bet that merely offset the Twins win. Arizona was the tiebreaker that looked good from start to finish, continuing their beatings of the San Francisco Giants and bringing home profit.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (Game 1)
Back the Ace: Reds RL -115
Luis Castillo had a nightmare outing in Milwaukee that he’d soon rather forget. And perhaps he has already. He leads off a Memorial Day doubleheader with the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that the Reds would love nothing more than to leapfrog and get out of the NL Central basement by the end of this series. Castillo’s promise as a franchise ace is well known. Working out of a small rough patch would be a test to this young man’s resolve. His 21.2% soft contact rate and 60% ground ball rate lend themselves to keeping things under control in Cincinnati’s small ballpark. Pittsburgh has a couple bright spots in the lineup, however, this is a matchup that he must bounce back to dominate in.
Nick Kingham has not been good since stepping up as a starter. In his last 3 games, he’s given up 15 runs and went only 4 innings in each. This puts tremendous pressure on a bullpen that can be sketchy, especially after spending the past weekend getting hammered by the Dodgers. Pittsburgh has lost 4 of 5 and looks to get away from PNC Park and start fresh against Cincinnati. Both offenses have similar makeups but I give the Reds a slight power edge, especially if they can keep the momentum they built in Chicago. My differential rating is as high as it gets with this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Road Warriors: D-backs +100
Yesterday, I wondered whether the Diamondbacks were getting their mojo back on offense. Granted, they faced a favorable pitching scenario from top to bottom but their offense did not disappoint. They’ll need to stay hot as they take on a Colorado offense that is mashing. Zack Greinke’s last pair of starts have yielded 3 earned runs in both, so there are some flaws in his game. But you can’t knock his reliability and ability to limit damage by opposing hitters. Greinke has given up only 1 home run in his last 7 starts and keeps hard contact to a reasonable amount (34%). Furthermore, Arizona is a good road team with a 17-12 away record despite dropping 3 at San Diego last week.
Greinke is opposed by Jon Gray, who has given up 3 or 5 runs in each of his last 5 starts even though you cannot attribute this to the Mile High factor; 4 of those 5 rough outings were on the road. To his credit, his fly ball rate is a low 30% though 23.4% of those fly balls end up as home runs. Both teams are swinging hot bats, which makes pitching effectiveness paramount. Edge goes to Greinke in that department. Both bullpens are solid but Colorado had to dig deep yesterday in a nip-and-tuck game with Baltimore. Taking a very short-term look at these clubs, you can make the argument that Arizona’s domination of the Giants was much more impressive than the Rockies’ 2-1 series win over Baltimore. Minor differential in this one, but the Diamondbacks get my backing.
