Previous Week Plays – 1-3
Season Record – 9-8
WEEK 4 RECAP:
Week four overall was a successful week for the BetCrushers looking at our portfolio of plays, however our posted NFL plays were a disappointing 1-3 moving our season record to a very marginal 9-8. After reviewing the games it’s apparent we reached a bit and weren’t as disciplined as we should have been. That’s always an easy hindsight view but we definitely could have stuck with three plays rather than going with four. Here’s a quick breakdown of what what right and what went wrong:
We felt pretty good about our picks for the week and really liked our Green Bay first half -2.5 wager based on a number of factors. This one looked all but locked as the Packers had a comfortable 10 point lead in the second quarter. A dominating Eagles drive and a bad turnover by the Packers doomed that bet setting the tone for more disappointment than joy. Our lone win was actually a bit of a nail-biter as our two team teaser with Kansas City and New England both came down to the wire before thankfully coming through. We knew going into the dome on Sunday night would be tough for the Cowboys, but thought their defense against a backup quarterback would be enough for them to leave with a FG win. Those critics who thought the Cowboys hot start was a result of playing the bottom feeders in the league are looking pretty smart right about now.
WEEK 5 PLAYS:
We’ve talked a little bit about some of the rather strange weeks of spreads during the first quarter of this NFL season and while week five may not be the strangest, in our opinion it’s definitely the most challenging. We’ve spent hours breaking down every game on the schedule, studying where the money is coming in and what the sharps are leaning towards. Our conclusion is that week five simply doesn’t have a lot to offer in terms of line values. We generally try to target 4 to 6 games that we want to wager on during a typical NFL week, but for the first time in quite a while we only have two plays that we’re publicly on. We should clarify that after a good week of player props and some early juicy target numbers that are coming out there, we’ll most likely have several high proposition bets that we’ll be posting Sunday morning. It can be very easy to be tempted into taking some chances on games that appear to be 50-50. Good handicappers understand when value just isn’t there and it’s time to slow down. The two plays we’re looking at this week are an under and another two-team teaser.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
Atlanta Falcons (1-3) ATS(1-3) at Houston Texans (2-2) ATS(2-2)
Sunday October 6th
1:00pm
NFL Network, FOX
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Houston Texans -5 (-110)
Over/Under 50 (-110)
The Atlanta Falcons find themselves in a tough spot as five point underdogs in what is a game they really need to win if they want to be in the fold in their division. Furthermore, they’ll be playing on the road as one of the worst road teams vs. home teams in the league during quarterback Matt Ryan’s tenure (minus their Super Bowl season). The Houston Texans are also looking to keep pace in their division that while is not necessarily great, is extremely competitive. These teams have some similarities, including two coaches who have been criticized for their in-game management, two quarterbacks who have earned high praise but not gotten over that critical win marker, and possibly the two most talented wide receivers in the league. By default, one of these teams is going to leave this game feeling really good about itself, even if it’s false hope, while the other will be left searching for answers that may not ever come.
We’re a little bit of a broken record in terms of the Atlanta Falcons and our evaluation and that’s ok by us as it means we’ve got them pegged pretty well. They’ll obviously be on the road for this one, which is a situation where Matt Ryan and the offense will most likely continue to struggle. Truth be told, they’ve struggled at home as well as most of their statistics that look encouraging have been playing from way behind in garbage time. Matt Ryan is not having a good season at all (unless you’re talking about fantasy football) as he’s making mistakes a veteran Pro Bowl quarterback should not be making. The real issue with this team goes beyond Ryan and their talented skill players, it’s all about the fat men and their inability to win the battles up front. Additionally their red zone production has been sorely lacking, which has been an issue extending beyond this season. Conversely, Houston has been solid in their red zone defense, so there should be some field goals in place of touchdowns when the Falcons are on offense. At some point this season the Falcons will put up some big plays and a lot of points in a game, but we’re going to bet that is going to happen at a game when they’re in the comfort of their dome.
There is something out of sync with the Texans offense as well as they haven’t been able to get the Watson to Hopkins connection working. Hopkins is used to double coverage so it’s certainly nothing there, it’ more about the inability of the Texans to make teams pay with other players. Like the Falcons, the Texans have not been great on the offensive line either. The trade for Laremy Tunsil was necessary and can still prove fruitful, but so far he has not played well and the line as a whole is still giving up way to much pressure to allow Watson to operate out of the pocket. The run blocking has also been a challenge despite Carlos Hyde’s tough running style. The Atlanta defense which will never be confused with the 2000 Ravens actually has a decent matchup in this game if they can avoid being burned for the big play. Expect the Texans to try to start the game running the ball to set up some play action. If they’re able to establish the run early, they may be able to stick with it for the duration. Either of these teams is capable of playing in a shoot-out environment, but they’re both going to want to out-physical the other in the first half.
Key Stats – The Falcons are averaging 17.5 points and the Texans are averaging 19.5 points per game in their first four games of 2019
The public is not surprisingly on the Falcons and the over in this game as the lines moved from Atlanta +5 to +4 and the total moved from 49 to 50. Julio, DeAndre, Ryan and Watson, points galore! Only in theory. Matt Ryan and the Falcons will struggle to score points on the road as has been one of the more consistent trends in the NFL over recent seasons. Look for DeAndre Hopkins to be more involved in this game as the Texans will look to get him going. That could be through a lot of short passes and slant routes to keep the chains moving. 50 points is a total that should be reserved for teams like the Chiefs, not the 2019 version of the Falcons and Texans. It’s always a wise decision to go the opposite direction of the public which is exactly what we’re doing here. Give us the under.
BetCrushers Take: Under 50 Total
Houston 26, Atlanta 20
Teaser Bet
Minnesota vs. New York Giants and Denver vs. LA Chargers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (2-2) (3-0 ATS) at New York Giants (2-2) (2-1 ATS)
Sunday October 6th
1:00pm
FOX
Metlife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
Minnesota Vikings -5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos (0-4) (1-3 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)(1–2-1 ATS)
Sunday September 29th
4:05pm
CBS
Rokit Field – Carson, CA
Los Angeles Chargers -6 (-115)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
We lost our first teaser bet of the season last week and it involved this Minnesota Vikings team who laid an absolute egg against their division rivals in Chicago. It was so bad that it has shaken the entire core of the team as there is now some uncertainty regarding the future of WR Stefon Diggs. The Chargers on the other hand continued to fight through a slew of injuries as they’re trying to hold things together until some of their key pieces can get back on the field.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: MINNESOTA +1 and LOS ANGELES CHARGERS pick
Kirk Cousins has been a popular whipping boy this year in the NFL and you can’t really defend a whole lot of what he has been doing on the field. Frustrations finally boiled over last week as Adam Thielen politely called him out for missing some wide open throws, and as was mentioned, Stefon Diggs basically said he can’t play with him at quarterback. All of that spells some obvious trouble for the Vikings, right? Well, the jury is out on that and it’s very possible, however for this weekend things may turn amicable again for the purple gang. Kirk Cousins is another quarterback that has played markedly better at home than on the road, however a tilt with the New York Giants could be exactly what ails the Minnesota quarterback and offense. The Giants have been allowing nearly 300 yards through the air and have been gashed on the ground as well. Their inability to consistently generate pressure without blitzing has left their secondary vulnerable and you have to imagine that Cousins will be eager to get both Diggs and Thielen the ball often. Even if Cousins can’t get things completely right, as long as he can take care of the ball they should still be able to move up and down the field on the strong legs of Dalvin Cook. We’ll be looking to play Cook’s over rushing total as a prop as well as this should be an absolute 100+ yard day for him. The Vikings line will overpower the Giants defensive front which is exactly what Minnesota needs to get the offense back on track.
Flipping to the other direction, quarterback Daniel Jones has been the spark NY has needed to both crawl back into contention in the NFC and more importantly provide some hope for the future. You’ve got to be impressed with the athleticism and poise that Jones has shown in his first action as it certainly looks like he is the franchise quarterback they hoped when drafting him. This is going to be a really difficult task for him though going against a very solid Viking defense. Unlike the Giants, the Vikings have the ability to generate a pass rush without bringing extra rushers. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Jones to make the right reads very quickly in passing situations. He does get Golden Tate back after his four game suspension which will give him some help, assuming they can be on the same page. When Saquon Barkley returns from injury, which looks as though it will be sooner than anticipated, this offense could really become tough to defend. With Barkley out, this is just too tough of a spot for a rookie quarterback. Minnesota has been one of the hottest covering teams in the league dating back to last season and they don’t even need to do that with this teaser.
The late game features Denver traveling to Los Angeles still searching for their first win for rookie head coach Vic Fangio. The Broncos have fought hard in the first quarter of the season and just seem to be that team that can’t buy a break when they need it. They took another blow losing half of their talented pass rushing duo when they placed Bradley Chubb on IR with an ACL injury. They’re going to need not only some breaks but a good gameplan if they’re going to get out of LA with a win on Sunday. Even though the Chargers don’t have much of a homefield advantage it should be enough to have an impact on Bronco QB Joe Flacco who throughout his career has been a classic home performing quarterback who has struggled on the road. The Chargers are banged up on both sides of the ball, but still have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to keep the Broncos from doing too much on offense.
Some good news for the Chargers as they’ll finally get to give well rested running back Melvin Gordon a test drive on Sunday as he returns from his holdout. Gordon wasn’t able to gain any leverage in hope of a long-term deal with LA as Austin Ekeler was one of the most productive running backs through the first four games. All accounts out of LA state that Gordon is eager to quiet the nay-sayers so look for him to be motivated in whatever game action that he sees on Sunday. The Broncos are 30th in the league in stopping the run giving up nearly 150 yards a game and allowing opposing teams to average over 5.1 yards per carry. Both Gordon and Ekeler could be in for big days no matter who’s seeing the touches. Philip Rivers just keeps plugging along with Keenan Allen and whoever else happens to be lining up on any given Sunday. Without Chubb in the lineup the Chargers will shift their protection to Von Miller which should slow down the only semblance of a pass rush Denver has had this season. Rivers has been as good as it gets during his career when he has time to throw. Between the Broncos inability to stop the run, or generate pressure, LA will be able to find success and keep the sticks moving throughout the day. Lastly, we mentioned it in this analysis, but it’s worth repeating: The Broncos are a completely different team away from the altitude of Mile High in Denver. They are a miserable 1-10 straight up against their AFC West divisional foes on the road over the past season and a half or so. They may put up a bit of a fight, but we’re going out on a very short limb and assuming that mark will move to 1-11 as the Chargers should be able to hold serve and get the win.
Key Stats – The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
The Broncos are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games on the
road against the AFC West
Both of these games could wind up being pretty competitive so this most likely isn’t a rocking chair bet that will be over early. With this teaser, we’re in essence taking the favorites who should win and just needing them to get those wins. The risk of a backdoor cover or the Chargers/Vikings winning FG games goes away as they just need to beat teams that they are better than. SKOL SuperChargers!
