Battle of Attrition – MLB 7/25/2019

After successfully backing the Cardinals Tuesday, I laid low on the MLB card for a number of reasons. Generally speaking, the card quality peaks in June and then we start seeing too many starters that are tough to back or too expensive to fade. There are still gems in the…

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Knife Fight – MLB 7/23/2019

Buying low on the Texas Rangers last night was the result of ill-placed confidence in them righting the ship against a Mariners club that has essentially given up on the season. Marco Gonzales escaped a 2nd inning disaster with a 0-2 deficit and never looked back. Sampson got little support…

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Buying Low – MLB 7/22/2019

The dog days of summer usher a lot of new faces to the MLB diamond, especially on the pitcher's mound. This means plenty of matchups that have lopsided lines and/or unproven pitchers at the major league level. All of this equates to a lot of passing on my part, including…

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Heat Wave – 7/21/2019

So the Reds bullpen CAN hold a lead. Saturday's Reds F5 -136 wager pushes as Mikolas dueled Castillo to a 0-0 deadlock after 5 innings. The Cards then cracked Castillo for a solo shot but the Reds answered and held on for a 3-2 win. My hesitancy to get behind…

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Stopping Short – MLB 7/20/2019

A combination of family matters and a lack of a convincing bet-on game led to a "day off" from wagering the MLB. I had an opportunity to run through Saturday's slate late on Friday from the hotel and circled one game that looked like a viable opportunity. Arizona and Atlanta…

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No Cigar – MLB 7/18/2019

Atlanta/Milwaukee was one hell of a game Wednesday. An early mistake by Keuchel was costly, though the Atlanta offense made sure their club was never out of the game. The Brewers had the "big inning(s)" that I figured would be the difference maker and proved to be the difference in…

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Bob and Weave – MLB 7/17/2019

I sat Tuesday out from MLB wagering as the betting slate showed me nothing appetizing to bite on. Instead, I gave a quick overview of a couple key matchups I am exploring for this weekend's NASCAR Cup Foxwoods Casino 301 at New Hampshire. Our team has also been grinding on…

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Profit from Struggles – MLB 7/15/2019

San Francisco's offense is a bit of a head scratcher. When you put it in the context of a full MLB season, hot or cold streaks for teams, offenses, pitchers, etc. are just a routine part of the 162-game grind. Tyler Beede did a phenomenal job of scratching out nearly…

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Recency Bias? – MLB 7/14/2019

When it comes to the starting pitchers in last night's Reds/Rockies game, I was completely wrong. Roark got hammered for 13 hits, 3 homers, and 7 runs. Freshly-recalled Kyle Freeland did not give up a single home run or a walk. Walks and home runs needed to be the Reds'…

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Back in the Majors – 7/13/2019 MLB

Speaking of which, it's certainly good to be back on the MLB grind. It doesn't hurt when the Red Sox have your back and smack down the Dodgers 8-1. Rodriguez exceeded our high expectations with only 1 earned run and 10 strikeouts against the potent LA lineup. Maeda was as…

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Reading the Splits – MLB 7/12/2019

After an extended time overseas, it's definitely good to be back. Baseball is back with a full slate, NFL preparations are heating up, and all is well in the handicapping world for the BetCrushers team. Before the All-Star Break, we were sharpening our approaches to live betting the MLB...and with…

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No-Shows – MLB 6/19/2019

Oof. Yesterday's faith in Julio Teheran and Merrill Kelly was poorly placed. They were both in good current form as I detailed yesterday. Unfortunately, both of these starters were anything but good. And their offenses did little to bail them out. deGrom was lights out in his complete game, while…

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Explosive Bullpens – MLB 6/18/2019

As you can see from the header post, it's deja vu all over again. After last night's late-inning blowout of the Mets, the price to back Atlanta continues to balloon as they continue their hot streak. Oh wait, they're the dog tonight? More on that later. Atlanta's convincing 12-3 win…

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Stay Put, Luke – MLB 6/17/2019

If you laid the juice on the Dodgers last night, you cashed. If you're a sucker like me and played the run line with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, then you're out of luck. The Dodgers had plenty of opportunities to do more damage against Quintana but did not convert.…

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Head Shot – MLB 6/16/2019

There was a lot of painful action in the MLB on Saturday, at least in the games that I had my eye on. Nick Senzel fouled one off of his face, JT Realmuto caught a foul ball in the junk, and Sean Newcomb took a scorched liner to the side…

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Triple Dip – MLB 6/15/2019

I have to admit that when Lucas Giolito gave up a 1st inning solo shot to Luke Voit last night, my first thought was how Giolito has truly been due for a dud outing. Then CC Sabathia took the mound and my impression of the game quickly changed back to…

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The New Wave – MLB 6/14/2019

My BetCrushers boys were giving me flack for hitting the links before cranking out an article first thing this morning. To my credit, I was up and handicapping before the morning scramble. I was fresh off a refreshing Thursday evening in which I had nothing booked, especially after the Braves…

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Bad Blood – MLB 6/13/2019

Some days it just ain't in the cards. Wednesday was one of those days for my handicapping, most notably in Colorado where the Rockies were dominated by the Cubs. Senzatela laid one of his eggs and Hamels pulled an impressive outing out of the jaws of a 1st inning bases-loaded…

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How the West Was Won – MLB 6/12/2019

What are the odds? Tuesday's 1-1 split makes it the fourth straight day with such a record. I scratched out +0.09 units on the split, lifting this week to 2-2 for +1.35 units. Arizona disappointed me though their offense battled hard, missing a pair of late-game 3-run homers by a…

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Live Dog – MLB 6/11/2019

Monday's 1-1 split marked the third straight day with such a record. However, yesterday's split earned +1.26 units because of Texas' big +226 underdog win in 11 innings. As ho-hum as last week ended, this one began with a bang. As noted yesterday, Mike Minor was poised to keep the…

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Deuces Wild – MLB 6/10/2019

Sunday's 1-1 split was a fitting end to a ho-hum week 11 in the MLB. The week finishes up with a 5-6 record that cost me 0.98 units. Nothing too out of whack, but I am without a doubt well behind my season-long pace. Since I will be in Europe…

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Out of the Desert – MLB 6/9/2019

Saturday started strong with an Arizona shutout and ended with a disappointing display from the Rockies. Colorado had their opportunities but Steven Matz went deep into the pitch count and struck out 10 with his nasty curve and pinpoint fastballs. On the flip side, Zack Greinke squashed the Jays offense…

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No Cigar – MLB 6/8/2019

Although close doesn't pay, Friday's two plays damn near got there but fell short. It cost me 2.16 units and took the week down to 3-4 for -1.02 units though. Either way would have been a loss, but I avoided a Nationals bullpen meltdown by taking the first 5 inning…

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Flip-Flop – MLB 6/7/2019

I do all of my MLB handicapping early morning before heading to the office, so I often miss out on several games that are not on the board. I can be proactive at times when the starters are known and create a line range in which I would make a…

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Ill Communication – 6/6/2019

The Twins offense vs. Carlos Carrasco matchup was a big draw for a +118 underdog bet on Minnesota before Carrasco was scratched due to unfortunate medical concerns. When the game came back with Tyler Clippard as the Indians starter, the line flipped to Twins -120. After adjusting for the pitching…

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Tripped Up – MLB 6/5/2019

When it comes to having a plan, yesterday's included a pair of plus-money games to keep an upward trend alive. Unfortunately, the Miami Marlins completely ran Chase Anderson out of his own building and pounded the Brewers 16-0. I had identified Anderson as the weak link in Tuesday's run line…

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Jekyll & Hyde – MLB 6/4/2019

Wade LeBlanc damn well could have gone a full 9 innings if Seattle didn't use a starter last night. LeBlanc gave up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk over 8 great innings as the Mariners fell to the Astros 4-2. The damage was done in the 1st inning…

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Cease and Desist – MLB 6/3/2019

Last week's rough end bled into week 9, which started with a thud. Eventually it wrapped up with an 8-11 record and an unpleasant loss of 3.06 units. We roll into week 10 on a more positive note; the last three days brought in 4.55 units on a 6-2 record.…

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Turning Two – MLB 6/2/2019

Opportunity knocked Saturday, but the Reds could not open the door...in multiple situations. As noted in yesterday's article, Nats' pitcher Erick Fedde had been solid but was not expected to go past the 5th inning. He left after 4 innings, having run up 85 pitches with 6 hits and 3…

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First Timer – MLB 5/31/2019

We all know the deal: three strikes and you're out. Yesterday started with an extra-innings slugfest between Arizona and Colorado that fell just short for the +127 road dog. The Rockies owned the D-backs in that 4-game series, in which my two wagers on Arizona lost by a single run…

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The AL West Experience – MLB 5/30/2019

When the boys in the AL West get together, you better buckle up because their games don't land smoothly! Sitting on Oakland and Texas tickets yesterday, I knew this going into those games and certainly got my money's worth! After a Cincinnati beatdown, a split on my AL West tickets…

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Getting Squeezed – MLB 5/29/2019

A pair of one-run losses last night leads to a nasty -2.4 unit loss for Tuesday, and now makes three one-run losses in a row. We'll see about getting that turned around soon. A sloppy first inning by the Yankees spotted the Padres 4 runs, which was just enough for…

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Powered Up – MLB 5/28/2019

Due to a lack of cooperation from the Reds and Diamondbacks, we're off to a lackluster 0-2 start (-2.15 units) to week 9 in the MLB. Cincinnati was super sloppy in game one of their Memorial Day doubleheader with the Pirates. A balk, fielding errors, base running gaffs, and a…

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Mile High Clash – MLB 5/27/2019

Sunday wrapped up a down week with a 2-1 record that netted +1.00 units, despite going 6-8 for -2.11 in week 8. At week's end, the season tally stands at -0.49 units. Not where we want to be by any stretch of the imagination but a down April is being…

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Big Guns – MLB 5/26/2019

At least there's the Twins. Their 8-1 dismantling of the White Sox easily covered the run line and provided the lone W yesterday. Cincinnati gave it a good run as a +137 dog but fell short as the game got late. Rangers/Angels was a pitchers duel that went down to…

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Go With the Flow – MLB 5/25/2019

Friday's 2 plays were a...you guessed it: a split. 1-1 on the day (-0.04 units) moves the week to 3-4 for -0.95 units. The weak link was St. Louis. I tried to buck the Cardinals slump off a day of rest with the Braves coming into town after a 13-inning…

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Iffy Arms – MLB 5/24/2019

The Twins finally got their series sweep against the Angels yesterday after the game was delayed from Wednesday night. I implemented a -1 run line using a 50-50 split of the money line and traditional -1.5 run line. Turns out that it wasn't necessary as they launched 8 home runs…

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Soggy in Anaheim – MLB 5/23/2019

Guess the outfield was a little on the soggy side last night for the Twins/Angels series finale. This cancelled one of my two plays, which is unfortunate because the other play (Diamondbacks/Padres) was a complete bust. Eric Lauer was painting the corners while Merrill Kelly was allergic to the strike…

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California Love – MLB 5/22/2019

So I made no progress on my run line bet approach research last night. And the way this week's work schedule looks, this project may end up taking place on my flight down to BetCrushers HQ Friday evening. What better way to spend a couple hours on a plane than…

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Dig Into the Numbers – MLB 5/21/2019

A colossal bullpen failure compromised the Texas +120 run line play, but fans in the Metroplex still went home celebrating a Rangers 10-9 win. Despite being up 10-2 going into the 8th inning, this game was far from over with the Texas and Seattle bullpens in action. Seattle's 7 runs…

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On The Run – MLB 5/20/2019

The rigorous schedule of a 50+ hour job collides with MLB handicapping sometimes, as it has early this Monday morning. Fortunately, the slate is extremely light as I write this article: only 6 games are up on the board (1 of which is at Wrigley). I planned to give an…

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Sunday Fade Job – MLB 5/19/2019

Chop 'em up again! Saturday's 2-2 split was par for the course this week, which moves to 7-7 for a profit of +1.16 units. Spoiler alert: I've got 2 tickets for Sunday's MLB action and I would not be surprised at all if I get another split. But we're playing…

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Grinding It Out – MLB 5/18/2019

Every handicapper and bettor has a particular approach and style. Whether it is the use of a system, access to great information, or a solid handicapping approach, consistent winners find a way to get it done. A guy like me makes 1-4 plays a day during the MLB season (typically…

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Centrally Located – MLB 5/17/2019

Luis Castillo's wizardry was damn near thwarted by the 3rd base bag in the 1st inning last night. Fortunately, the unfortunate circumstances at the beginning of the game were returned as a favor via wild pitch in the bottom of the 5th. Cincy held on after a considerable rain delay…

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Sights Set – MLB 5/15/2019

Tuesday: my nemesis this MLB season. Fortunately, I played yesterday's slate about as good as I could have. My handicapping process led me to 4 sides that had promise but I was hesitant to overextend and potentially take another big hit. I sharpened the pencils, played 2 wagers, and left…

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Laying Low – MLB 5/14/2019

After triple-checking my handicapping on the Astros/Tigers game yesterday morning, I punched a single MLB ticket for the short Monday slate. The downside to the Astros +105 run line wager was the strong possibility that Matthew Boyd would shut the Houston offense down and the Tigers would do enough to…

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Pace, Baby, Pace – MLB 5/13/2019

Week 6 wrapped up Sunday with a thud (0-2, -2.05 units), but I won't complain after churning out another weekly profit. The 10-9 week had promise going into the weekend, yet I squeezed out a modest 1.20-unit win despite a disappointing finish. Getting some momentum rolling over the last few…

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Bullpens, Baby! – MLB 5/12/2019

Handicapping bullpens can truly be a "playing the percentages" part of the game. Whether this is more evident in the MLB these days as compared to the past, I do not know and frankly don't have any interest in researching. Consistently good, consistently bad, or downright volatile relief units can…

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Another Victim – MLB 5/11/2019

The Rocky Mountain Hangover strikes again. San Francisco returned home yesterday after a series in Colorado only to get steamrolled 7-0 by Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds. This makes the Hangover a perfect 6-for-6 in 2019. It's truly difficult to split out where the Hangover impacts began and Castillo's…

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The Day After – 3/29/2019

Opening Day did not disappoint me and the BetCrushers Team (who did better than my solo pick with a couple add-on winners). Berrios was absolutely dominant, which was a must for the Twins to get a +105 W over an on-point Kluber in front of a depleted Tribe lineup. When…

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Opening Day 2019!!!

And with that, the excitement of a new MLB season fades into number-crunching. 15 games on Thursday's slate, 15 opportunities to start on the right foot. I model games to determine a probable score based on team and starting pitcher projections (and actual stats once we get a body of…

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The MLB Season Handicapping Grind

When spring comes into view, our focus splits between increasingly heated NCAA basketball action and the prospects of a profitable new MLB season. Spring training gives us insight into each team's season outlook while building excitement for over 2,400 games and even more wagering opportunities. Wait, over 2,400 games?!? This…

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