The NASCAR postseason field will be slashed by a third when checkered flag flies at the Hollywood Casino 400 this afternoon. Two drivers are locked in for the next round of playoffs and four more are effectively in, barring some sort of disaster. Who will be in next week and who will be out? More importantly, what’s the best way to profit from the race? You’ll find our answers in the BetCrushers final NASCAR handicapping at Kansas.
The Plot Thickens
Two teams didn’t make to race day without drama. Playoff contenders Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex, Jr. had inspection issues at qualifying, resulting in Harvick having to start from the back. On a high note, Daniel Hemric earned his first NASCAR Cup Series pole yesterday despite having a middle-of-the-pack car in practice.
Qualifying positions can be poor indicators of performance in the main event. A prime example is Denny Hamlin, who qualified 23rd but had one of the fastest cars in practice. The #11 team eschewed a car tuned for a fast lap and went with a setup that should pay dividends in live racing. Same goes for Kyle Busch, who looked extremely good on Friday and settled for an 18th place start after a ho-hum qualifying lap. Kevin Harvick was also very fast in practice over the long runs, yet he’ll start in the back due to the inspection issue.
Kansas is a pure racing challenge, so don’t be surprised to see drivers in the 8th-12th positions on the playoff standings to be aggressive early and often. Stage points are key, but nothing is more important than a race win in a do-or-die scenario. Joey Logano is in a sticky situation in the 8th slot and will be fending off Bowman, Elliott, Bowyer, and Byron to advance to Round 3. Teams will need a car that performs well in traffic since Kansas is a wide tri-oval that has three legitimate grooves. These boys will be racing their asses off this afternoon.
Assessing the Board
The opening odds implied that Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott were the guys to beat this week at Kansas. As you can see below, there’s been a shakeup on the heels of Friday’s and Saturday’s pre-race activities. Chase is no longer part of the equation according to the books.
Kyle Busch tops the board after a dominant Friday evening practice in which he put in a lot of time on the track. He led the field in all lap averages from the 5-lap to the 30-lap. MTJ and Harvick are still up there, despite their inspection issues and Harvick being pushed to the back for today’s green flag.
The Hollywood Casino 400 Stable
Our trifecta of contenders spotlighted in the Hollywood Casino 400 race preview had a rocky weekend. Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick had their inspection issues, and Harvick is now in the worst starting position of the entire field. Starting at the rear is far from ideal but the #4 Ford looks fast and should be able to make up significant ground over 400 miles. The negative is that he’s is being priced as if he isn’t starting at the back.
Chase Elliott failed to impress this weekend. We invested in him early and will have to ride with him to the bitter end. Of our two Top 10 prospects, Erik Jones is the odd man out. Jones was mediocre on Friday and got pushed off of our prospect list. However, the #20 Toyota is still involved in our wagering card.
Aric Almirola: Low-Key in Kansas
Kansas has become one of AA’s more favorable tracks. Despite being a playoff outsider, Almirola wants to succeed here to improve his Cup Series future. Maybe it’s a personal connection to the place where he suffered a serious spinal injury in the 2017 spring race. He has driven with purpose in the four Kansas races ever since.
Almirola has snuck his way into the Top 10 in three of the last four Kansas races. Those were 9th, 9th, and 10ths so we’re not going to call him a lock by any means. These are slim margins for a guy that we tagged with a 40% chance to T10 this week. However, you have to weigh the payoff with the risk, and Aric is close to 100/1 to win the race. If Aric Almirola gets posted at +150 or better to Top 10 at Kansas, we’ll be buyers.
Aric Almirola (+145) over William Byron
In full disclosure, we never made it to the weekend to establish a position on AA. 5Dimes vastly expanded their matchup offerings just hours after Wednesday’s race preview dropped, and we found this beauty (rotation #8216). This price was incredibly high so we blasted it out on Twitter after booking it:
Apparently, we weren’t the only ones with the opinion that this was overpriced. Less than 24 hours later, AA was only a +110 dog to Byron. +145 is incredible value considering we project Almirola to finish comfortably ahead of Byron. This breaks a fundamental heuristic of handicapping the NASCAR postseason, which is to avoid backing a non-playoff driver against one still in playoff contention.
Simply put, William Byron has not connected with Kansas Speedway yet. In three career Cup Series races here, he’s gone 33rd, 38th, and 20th. Aric finished no closer than eight positions above him in those races. He’s been solid at Kansas lately, and we expect him to deliver like he did at Talladega last week. Both guys looked decent in practice, though Almirola starts 13th as compared to Byron’s 25th. The +105 that is available Sunday morning is still a good price for AA in this matchup.
Plan B for Aric?
Our original plan for AA was to back him in the Top 10 market. Is this still viable? Absolutely. He was put up at +175 to finish in the Top 10 prior to Friday’s practices, and we placed a 1/2 unit bet on this to finish off our position with Almirola. His Top 10 price is still +175 on race day and continues to be a great play at this price.
Chase Elliott: One Final Bullet
As early-week backers of Elliott, we have a bit of concern for the #9 Chevrolet. His practices were sub-par and his 14th place qualifying lap left a lot to be desired. Nonetheless, we expect Chase to squeeze everything out of his #9 Chevy and make a run at it.
Chase Elliott is the defending Hollywood Casino 400 champion and backed up last October’s win with a 4th place finish this spring. The spring race checkered flag was within reach but Elliott was unable to seal the deal, falling behind Keselowski, Bowman, and Jones. He’s been very good here in his last four races with three Top 5 finishes and a 12th. On the flip side, we have to acknowledge Chase’s mediocre performances at Kentucky and Chicagoland the past couple times out.
Chase Elliott (+100) over Kyle Busch
Let’s put it this way: if you want to bet this matchup right now, you’ll get +180 to back Elliott. We played this in conjunction with our race preview article but the mismatch with their cars is now quite evident. Anything can happen in a NASCAR race to put a driver at a severe disadvantage or knock them out of the race. However, relying on that to win a matchup bet is very shaky. Given the circumstances, Elliott v. Busch is a pass.
Erik Jones: In a Funk
At what point will Erik Jones bounce back this year? There’s only four races left in the season and Kansas Speedway has been one of his better tracks since 2018. But there’s an underlying problem with the #20 team since his win at Darlington a couple months ago. Jones got a new contract, made the playoffs, and then went kaput. Earlier this week, we looked to back him in a “buy low” spot.
Erik’s current form is about as low as it gets. But his performances at Kansas have been very good since moving to the Joe Gibbs Racing team in 2018. Jones finished 7th, 4th and 3rd since hopping in the #20 Toyota. Will his success here outweigh the funk he’s been in since Labor Day weekend? That’s the handicapper’s dilemma. We’ll need to see at least +150 in the Top 10 pools to consider a play on Erik Jones.
The key issue with buying low in this spot is that the books aren’t underpricing him. Jones is -115 to finish in the Top 10, which is way below our +150 buy point. He was middle of the pack in practice and qualified 20th. Other than his previous three runnings at Kansas, what aren’t we seeing with Jones?
Kurt Busch (-125) over Erik Jones
Instead of passing on Erik Jones altogether, we did a 180-degree flip. Kurt Busch has come close at Kansas a few times and has generally been a reliable competitor here. He’s finished no worse than 19th in the nine races at Kansas since 2015 and had a top-third car this week in practice. Kurt has outraced Erik in five of this season’s six playoff races despite finishing behind him in the last three at Kansas. We’re getting behind Kurt’s better current form and fading Jones’ funk by laying the -125 in this matchup.
Final BetCrushers Betting Card at Kansas
- Chase Elliott (+100) over Kyle Busch
- Aric Almirola (+145) over William Byron
- Aric Almirola (+175) to Top 10 (1/2 unit)
- Kurt Busch (-125) over Erik Jones
