BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 8-6
JJ – 9-5
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 50-41-1
JJ – 44-47-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
A pretty solid week overall for the BetCrushers as combined we landed at 17-11 ATS, with JJ leading the way at an impressive 9-5 mark. The two games that tripped us both up were the Chiefs losing at home to the Texans and the Jaguars also losing at home to the Saints. The Chiefs were one of Vegas’ biggest winners of the weekend and we fell into that trap as well as injuries and a hot Texans offense were too much for the Chiefs to overcome. We rolled the dice with a couple of big underdogs in the Bengals and Steelers and each managed to come through with the Bengals cover going exactly as we had planned. It looks as though we’re finding a rhythm as our picks are becoming more consistent between each other. Let’s see if we can stay consistent and find our way to another winning weekend.
vs. 
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-2) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-4)
Thursday – October 17th – 8:20pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 70%
The Breakdown:
An all of a sudden important AFC West game kicks off week seven when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Denver to take on the rival Broncos in prime time. What a difference just ten days can make as KC comes in having lost two straight while Denver has won their last two contests making this division a lot more competitive and interesting. Remember when Kansas City was a lock for the AFC Championship game, Mahomes was the clear favorite for MVP and Denver was going to have a top three draft pick? Such is life these days in the NFL.
When the Chiefs lost to the Colts it was a little bit of a shock, yet no one seemed to be panicking as it was clearly just one game. A second straight home loss to the Texans and the sky is suddenly falling in Kansas City. A road trip to a rival on a short week to a hot rival is not necessarily the medicine needed for a rebound when you examine the situation, so let’s take a closer look. First, here is what KC has working against them: Andy Reid has a short week to prepare and throughout his career he has proven that he can benefit from extra prep time and struggle when he can’t put a full plan together. Second, this team is really thin at some key positions with some of their high tier talent. They’ll again be without two starters on the offensive line to protect their hobbled leader Patrick Mahomes. Sammy Watkins won’t be able to go with his hamstring injury putting the pressure on Tyreek Hill who was a welcomed bright spot for this team a week ago. The injuries are not ideal in the hostile Mile High venue against the Bronco defense that is ranked fourth overall despite losing Bradley Chubb in week three for the season. Here’s the thing about that stat though, that defense has not really been tested as Green Bay is the only opponent they’ve played that really has a solid offensive unit, and they were dominated in that game. There are some big keys for KC offensively and it’s actually not involving Mahomes, Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Demarcus Robinson was shut out against the Texans and with Chris Harris more than likely locking in on Hill, Robinson must have a big game. The other area of great importance is in the running game. Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy need to keep the chains moving and the Chiefs offense on the field, particularly if they’re not hitting big plays. In the altitude the Chiefs cannot afford to have their struggling defense on the field the entire game.
All of a sudden the potential fire sale in the Bronco’s organization has turned into optimism and high hopes for defying the odds of starting a season 0-4 and making the playoffs. The Broncos have taken to Vic Fangio’s style of play and are winning with good defense, timely plays and a strong ground game. They’ll match up pretty well in this game against the Chiefs defense (yes most teams match up well with that D) as Phillip Lindsay will look to grind down the Chiefs like Carlos Hyde was able to do four days ago. The absence of Chris Jones on the KC defensive line really hurts a team that struggled in the trenches to begin with. Joe Flacco and the offense will be looking for 10 play drives that keep the ball away from Mahomes and wear that defense down into the second half. Time of possession could end up being the most key stat at the end of this game. Can Denver hold the ball for 2/3 of the game and punch in touchdowns in the red zone? If they can, they’ll have a realistic chance of winning this game at home.
KEY STATS – The Chiefs are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. the AFC West
– The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Broncos
When you read the analysis there appears to be a lot of reasons to doubt the Chiefs laying points on the road. The line seems a little fishy and the public like the fantasy all-stars of the Chiefs which is always a big red flag. The biggest reason for looking at the Chiefs has less to do with their talented group of players, and more to do with the value here. This line opened at -4 and with the injuries moved down to -3. Just ten days ago this line would have been more like -8 to -10. There is serious value here even if momentum and homefield advantage are not on the side of the Chiefs. In a game that could have some meaningful repercussions down the road in the AFC is Joe Flacco really going to beat Patrick Mahomes? You can call this one a square bet and we won’t disagree with you, but we’re taking the better team in this one.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -3.5 (Chiefs 29, Broncos 23)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -3.5 (Chiefs 30, Broncos 17)
vs. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-5) at BUFFALO BILLS (4-1)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: Buffalo Bills -17
Over/Under: 41.5
Public Money Percentage: Miami 52%
The Breakdown:
Ryan Fitzpatrick returns to Buffalo a week after nearly pulling off a comeback against the Redskins for the Dolphins first win under head coach Brian Flores. Miami enters the game in familiar territory of major underdogs as the spread has opened and settled right around 17 points. Can the streaky Fitzpatrick find enough magic to get the Dolphins in the win column against his old team, or are the odds simply too stacked against him?
There is no question Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins their best chance to score points and win. He’ll face a tough challenge Sunday in familiar Orchard Park going up against one of the NFL’s top defensive units coming off of a bye. In order for Miami to get points in this one they need a couple of things to happen. They’ll need to rely on the legs of the veteran Fitzpatrick to move the chains on 3rd down, something the Bills are vulnerable against, and they’ll need to find a couple of big plays somewhere. The Fins’ actually aren’t completely depleted in terms of the skill positions, it’s the offensive line that is going to make this an uphill battle for them. Can they keep Fitzpatrick upright against a home crowd fueled Bills defense enough for him to make throws? It’s going to be a really tough ask of a line that hasn’t been able to do well in that department thus far and is overall an overmatched unit compared to NFL defensive lines.
The other piece that would help the Dolphins pull the upset would be if they can somehow create a slew of turnovers against Josh Allen and the Bills offense. While Allen has looked sharp at times during the season, he has struggled with ball protection and been a little careless with his throws. If Allen and the offense can take care of the ball, they should have no problem overpowering the Dolphins defensively. The ageless Frank Gore and the return of rookie Devin Singletary will lead to a lot of running plays in this game. The Bills would probably be wise to give Allen some work in the passing game in this game, but don’t count on it with head coach Sean McDermott. He’ll be content pounding the ball and getting out with a victory, which is something that should happen.
Anytime the Dolphins are involved there is a possibility of a rout against them. Call it a hunch, but this seems like a game that could be a lot closer than what the spread might indicate. Are the Bills really that strong to be giving anyone 17 points? They should find a way to win, the question is will it be enough to get the cover?
Yanni’s Pick – Dolphins +17 (Bills 27, Dolphins 14)
JJ’s Pick – Dolphins +17
vs. 
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-4) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-6)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -4
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: Jacksonville 62%
The Breakdown:
Jacksonville and Cincinnati square off in an AFC showdown that probably has more draft ramifications than anything else at this point in the season. Speaking of draft picks the Jaguars landed a few good ones dealing disgruntled All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams on Tuesday. Will that deal have any impact on the outcome of this game or is it business as usual for two teams scrapping to find a victory?
The Gardner Minshew hype train slowed down a bit last week after Minshew actually played a little bit like a rookie for the first time since he’s been at the helm. Fortunately for him he has a matchup against the leagues 31st ranked defense that is also missing their best corner as Dre Kirkpatrick will not be able to go in this game. The Bengals have struggled against the run and the pass so the Jags should have success in whichever area they want to try to exploit. Look for them to try to get Leonard Fournette going early and taking some shots off of play action if they have success running the ball. Minshew stated he’s eager to rebound off of his performance last week so you can expect him to be prepared and ready to go. He’ll need to stay patient and take what the defense gives him though and not try to hit home runs when they’re not there.
Andy Dalton continues to get blasted in the Cincinnati media which is really unfair based on what he’s dealing with on that offense. There are calls for rookie Ryan Finley to get his chance behind center to see what he can offer at this level, which honestly seems like leading a lamb to slaughter. Make no mistake, we’re not considering Andy Dalton as an elite QB in the league, but he is by no means the reason the Bengals are yet to win their first game under head coach Zac Taylor. Joe Mixon has been a complete non-factor and disappointment as the Bengals offensive line has been able to do absolutely nothing to get him loose in the running game. With Dalton routinely having to throw before his routes are timed, or flat our scrambling for his life this offense is as good, or in this case as pathetic, as their offensive line. Give the Bengals some credit in the sense that they knew the line was an issue and tried to address it in the offseason, injuries unfortunately derailed that plan before it ever got started. Calais Campbell and company have a solid advantage in the battle of the lines which will spell continued frustration and trouble for Cincinnati in this game.
If you’re looking for a showcase game on Sunday go ahead and flip right past this one. This game is pretty much only watchable if you’re a fan of one of these teams, which we know there aren’t too many, or if you’ve got some action on it. For us it will be the latter as we like the probability that there will be some ineptness on offense, particularly for the Bengals. With the total at 44 it wouldn’t take a ton to put it over, but it’s hard to see things happening to get it past the number. Raise your glass with us and make a toast for a lot of running plays, punts and field goals
Yanni’s Pick – Jaguars -4 (Jaguars 22, Bengals 16)
JJ’s Pick – Jaguars -4
vs. 
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-2) at DETROIT LIONS (2-2-1)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: Minnesota Vikings -2.5
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 57%
The Breakdown:
A black and blue division game in the NFC North that should live up to that billing as the Vikings take on the Lions in Detroit. Minnesota is coming off a nice confidence building win while the Detroit enters the game stinging from a loss that was aided by a lot of really poor and flat out suspect officiating.
The Vikings have to be pleased with the rebound of quarterback Kirk Cousins who has played like the guy they thought when they shelled out big bucks to get him over the past few weeks. Can he keep his momentum going on the road against Matt Patricia’s fired up squad? Even though the Lions do not rank near the top categorically on defense, we expect them to play well in this home game and harass Cousins in the passing game. Mike Zimmer will be focused on getting Dalvin Cook involved in this game and he’ll most likely get 20+ carries if the game script allows. We played a QB prop of the Cousins under and Dalvin Cook rushing over as that will be where this game is won or loss for the Vikings.
Detroit has done a nice job sticking with their running game this year and they will continue to grind away with Kerryon Johnson. The problem here is it will be tough for them to get a lot going, which will put the responsibility of the offense in the familiar hands of Matthew Stafford. The Vikings haven’t been as great against the pass as you might think and the trio of Golloday, Jones and Amendola, with the help of TE T.J. Hockenson should be able to carry the load offensively. Minnesota will need pressure from their edge rushers to allow for help in the secondary in coverage. A big question in this ballgame is whether or not the Lions offensive line can hold up? Being at home should at least help as they won’t have to deal with the noise factor.
It’s really easy to make the case for both of these teams finding a way to cover. For us, that means it’s probably a game you want to stay away from unless you have a really strong feeling one way or the other. The Lions should be able to get a win here, however we know they are good at finding ways to choke away games in the clutch. We’re split on this one so take your best guess and let us know.
Yanni’s Pick – Lions +2.5 (Lions 23, Vikings 20)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings -2.5
vs. 
OAKLAND RAIDERS (3-2) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-1)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: Green Bay Packers -4.5
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 55%
The Breakdown:
An interesting inter-conference game between the Oakland Raiders and Green Bay Packers that has seen the spread open at GB -6.5 and drop a couple of points to GB -4.5, There are a lot of variables in this game that will ultimately determine the outcome of both the game and the cover against the spread.
David Carr has really played solid football this season when you acknowledge the fact this team isn’t exactly loaded at the skill positions. He’s helped tight end Darren Waller get paid with a big contract extension, and he’s been able to do just enough with his receiving group to guide Oakland to a 3-2 record heading into this game. While Carr will need to have a good game to pull the road win in Lambeau, the key to the Oakland offense in this game is rookie running back Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has been a little hot and cold as you might expect from a rookie, and he needs to have a big day against GB to keep the Raiders offense on the field. Fortunately for Jacobs and the Raiders, that is very much a possibility based upon Green Bay’s inability to stop opposing runners this season. The Green Bay defense is similar to the Bears in the sense that it’s strength is from the outside in. The Raiders were able to take advantage of that against Chicago and should be able to have some success against the Packers as well.
On the other side of the ball Aaron Rodgers continues to find ways to get things done no matter who he’s throwing to. He’ll again be without his clear number one target Davante Adams which may slow things down just enough to keep the Packer offense from being explosive. As we’ve discussed all year, a key to Green Bays offense is their ability to run the football with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, which they will no doubt look to do again this week. The problem they will face is, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to get much going on the ground as the Raiders have been very stingy against the run allowing less than 4 yards per carry and being in the top ten in the league. If the run game falters, that will put a lot of pressure on some unproven receivers to make plays to keep the chains moving. As is always the case, the Packers seem to find a lot more success when their tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga give Rodgers time in the pocket. Oakland has done well putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks so keep a close eye on the outside pass rush.
This line was definitely set a little high when it opened and the public pounced on it bringing it down to a spread that seems a little more in line. Green Bay is finding ways to win, but they’re probably a little overvalued at this point in the season. Oakland is finding ways to win as well, and it’s a little tough to figure them out through their first five games. We’ll be spectators and note takers for this game and would suggest you do the same.
Yanni’s Pick – Raiders +4.5 (Packers 24, Raiders 20)
JJ’s Pick – Packers -4.5
vs. 
LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-3) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-5)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -3
Over/Under: 54.5
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 67%
The Breakdown:
It’s rare that you’d say that a game featuring a 3-3 team and a 1-5 team has the potential to be really exciting, but with an over/under of 54.5, in this particular case it absolutely does. Both teams are coming off of bad losses and each has had their share of issues on both sides of the ball. The Rams need this game to keep the playoffs within sight, while the Falcons need a win for head coach Dan Quinn and the organization.
The Rams are coming off of their worst offensive performances that saw them struggle to get anything at all going. It’s apparent that the falloff in play is centered around an offensive line that was grading out routinely high in 2018 and has been consistently poor in 2019. Fortunately for Los Angeles they’ll be able to mask some of these problems in week seven as the Falcons cannot do anything on the defensive side of the ball. This will be a big bounce-back game for Jared Goff and you can expect that all of the Rams weapons will find some success on Sunday.
Quarterback Matt Ryan has been seeing another season in his prime squandered and while he started slowly the first few weeks with his statistics being mostly garbage yards, he’s actually played really well the past few games. The Rams will be minus some of their veteran players defensively but will welcome All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey who will most likely draw the assignment of shadowing Julio Jones. Ramsey is one of the few difference makers at the corner position and the Rams are clearly all in hoping he can pair with Aaron Donald to make the most impactful front and back of a defense in the league. Even if Ramsey can contain Jones, Ryan has no problem working in Mohammed Sanu or Calvin Ridley in the absence of Aqib Talib or one of the most unsung tight ends in the league in Austin Hooper.
As mentioned the total for this game lines up for a potential shoot-out and it’s possible that whoever has the ball last in this one wins. Ultimately, you have to believe that the Rams will be able to make more stops than the Falcons which will end up being the difference in this game.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -3 (Rams 36, Falcons 30)
JJ’s Pick – Rams -3
vs. 
HOUSTON TEXANS (4-1) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-2)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: Indianapolis Colts -1
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Houston 59%
The Breakdown:
The AFC South is still pretty wide open and the Texans are hoping they can put a little bit of breathing room between them and the rest of the division with a win in Indianapolis. Houston has been on fire offensively and will need to stay hot to come away with a victory against a solid Colts team.
When DeShaun Watson has time in the pocket and his full arsenal of weapons he is downright scary. He’ll have his skill players surrounding him, and the real question will be whether or not he’ll have that time to throw downfield or if the Colts can get pressure on him. The Colts have been playing solid defense despite missing their leader Darius Leonard and having other injuries on the unit The Texans will look to get Carlos Hyde involved, however look for the Colts to try to make Houston one dimensional. The Colts tend to play a little more of a bend but don’t break defense and that should serve them well if they can eliminate the big plays that Houston has been making in recent weeks. DeAndre Hopkins has dominated this division and he’ll be set up for a nice game again this week. The key for Indianapolis is to limit the other playmakers on the roster and not get beat with the Texans speed deep.
The Colts have an opportunity to really feature Marlon Mack in this game as he could be the difference for them on offense. Mack has slowed down just a bit from his fast start this season and this game would be a perfect time for him to have another breakout performance. Frank Reich will be looking to establish Mack behind the Colts left side of the line in an effort to control the clock and keep that high scoring Texans offense off of the field. In the passing game T.Y. Hilton is returning and is said to be at full strength which is huge for the Indy offense. Hilton opens things up for everyone on else on the offense in addition to getting his own plays when the opportunities are there. He and Hopkins have had some individual battles the last couple of seasons and this could very well end up being another one. One hidden factor in this game is tight end Jack Doyle who will be needed on third downs to keep the Colts offense on the field.
You’re always taking a bit of a chance going against a team that is playing “hot” like the Texans currently are. Houston also has the top two players on the field in Watson and Hopkins who combine to make one of the top tandems in the NFL. Once you get past Watson and Hopkins though, there are a lot of Colts players that would be next in the talent pool in this game, and collectively Indianapolis seems to just gel better as a team. You can definitely make a case with either team in this divisional battle, but here’s which direction we’re leaning.
Yanni’s Pick – Colts -1 (Colts 27, Texans 23)
JJ’s Pick – Colts -1
vs. 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-0) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-5)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: San Francisco 49ers -10
Over/Under: 40
Public Money Percentage: San Francisco 68%
The Breakdown:
We’ll give ourselves a little pat on the back for picking the Niners as a rising team in the preseason, but we can’t say that we knew they’d be quite as good as they’ve looked so far this year. Their defense is the most improved in the league and although QB Jimmy Garroppollo hasn’t been spectacular he has given the offense enough to win games and in relatively easy fashion. Jimmy G will be taking on a Redskins team and defense that is still in quite a bit of disarray despite landing their first win against the hapless Dolphins last week. The Skins’ have actually played pretty hard all things considered, they simply don’t have enough talent or motivation defensively. San Francisco should be able to impose their will on that defense with their offensive line and control the tempo of the game as they’ve done all season. It won’t be surprising if the Niners don’t light up the score sheet, but they should certainly be able to make enough plays to put up some points when they need to.
The real mismatch in this game is with the Redskins offense lining up against the 49ers very strong defensive unit. Outside of the mentioned game with the Dolphins, Washington has not been able to run block at all or give their quarterbacks much time in the pocket to throw. The 49ers will completely overwhelm this group and you can plan on a lot of punts by Washington and probably some turnovers. The Redskins team total is at 14.5 and we’ll be pretty surprised if they’re able to go over that mark. If you like prop bets, keep a close eye on the Niners sack prop as this is the kind of game where they can easily pile up 5 or more sacks.
We’ve got this game teased with the Niners’ as ten is a big number, although realistically they should cruise right past that 10. It’s hard to find an area on the field where Washington can have success on either side of the ball. Although the spread is probably pretty accurate, this is definitely one of those games that could be headed towards a huge blowout.
Yanni’s Pick – 49ers -10 (49ers 33, Redskins 10)
JJ’s Pick – 49ers -10
vs. 
ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-3-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-4)
Sunday – October 20th – 1:00pm
Spread: New York Giants -3
Over/Under: 51
Public Money Percentage: New York 54%
The Breakdown:
We could be watching a preview of two of the top quarterbacks in the league in just a year or two down the line when the Cardinals and Giants face off in New Jersey. It’s unlikely that these teams are going to be competing for a playoff spot in 2019, although a win here would be badly needed if they want to stay in the race.
Kyler Murray makes his first trip to the big apple and will square up against the Giants own rookie quarterback sensation Daniel Jones. Although Murray has looked like a rookie at times, he has mostly been impressive and poised as the leader of the Cardinals offense. He’ll have an opportunity to put some points up against a Giants defense that has been torched regularly this season, although they have played slightly better of late. David Johnson and Chase Edmonds both have big opportunities in the running game and passing game against a NY linebacking corp that has really struggled against opposing backs. If they can get off to a fast start, that should help Murray in the play action and passing game as he’ll look to dependable Larry Fitzgerald and the return of Christian Kirk at wideout. The Cardinals offensive line has been improved from a year ago, but still is not very good overall. It could be a battle of wills as the Giants defensive line has also been pushed around a lot through six games. No one will be watching the battle in the trenches here, however it will ultimately determine how well the Cardinals can play on the offensive side of the ball.
Daniel Jones has to be pretty excited to get Saquon Barkley back in the lineup which will instantly make things more open in the passing game. Reports are Barkley has looked good in practice and is itching to get back out on the field. Arizona ranks 26th against the run so Barkley should be in line for a pretty productive day back assuming his endurance can hold up throughout the day. Additionally for the Giants is the return of their talented young tight end Evan Engram who gives Jones another matchup winner to look for down the field. With Golden Tate getting comfortable in this offense it almost looks like GM Dave Gettleman knew what he was doing this offseason. New Yorks offensive line has also played a little better this season and they will need to especially at the tackle positions as the strength of the Cardinal defense is with their veteran edge rushers. Terrell Suggs is still playing at a high level and knows how to get after a young QB to get him rattled early.
Everyone in the media and the BetCrushers included were really hard on this Giants team heading into the season and early on. They’re still a ways away from really being a competitive team, but you can certainly see that there are some pieces in place that could have this team competing sooner rather than later. Tough to call a game of rookie quarterbacks, but it seems like the home team should get the advantage here.
Yanni’s Pick – Giants -3 (Giants 29, Cardinals 24)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals +3
vs.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-4) at TENNESSEE TITANS (2-4)
Sunday – October 13th – 4:05pm
Spread: Tennessee Titans -2
Over/Under: 41.5
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 51%
The Breakdown:
If you wanted to sum up the seasons of the Chargers and Titans into one word it would clearly have to be “disappointing”. Each team had high hopes entering the season and after week one it looked like the sky was the limit and the playoffs were very much in play. Fast forward to week seven and you’ve got a battle of 2-4 teams that is as close to a must win in the first half of a season as you can have.
You can somewhat understand the Chargers struggles as their injuries have been well documented and you cannot discount or look past. It seems to really go beyond that though as they just seem completely out of sync on both sides of the ball. The biggest area that seems to have spearheaded their downfall has been the play of the offensive and defensive lines. Philip Rivers has been under constant pressure which has made him highly ineffective. The Chargers get a potential boost this week as it looks like Russell Okung will return from his internal lung/clot injury that has kept him out of their first six games. We won’t know how much Okung will be able to contribute, but it’s likely that anything he can give them will be an upgrade from what they’ve been getting. Another question mark for this offense is how Anthony Lynn and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt decide to use Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler at the running back position. Gordon should be back to “normal” following his holdout after some recent game action, however the coaching staff seems to want to platoon he and Ekeler due to his impressive work in Gordon’s absence. It really seems like with these two, the coaches need to make a decision and go with one or the other as a primary back and not just split the workload evenly. We’ll see if anything changes with the usage against the Titans. Los Angeles did get a big boost a week ago in the return of tight end Hunter Henry who paid immediate dividends scoring twice. It’s no secret that Rivers likes to lean on his tight ends, specifically in the red zone so having Henry back should give them a little extra juice offensively.
In Tennessee it appears as though the Titans are finally prepared to move on from Marcus Mariota as he takes a seat on the bench in favor or Ryan Tannehill. Mariota hasn’t necessarily played poorly, he just hasn’t played very dynamically, or at least well enough to help the team win. It’s fair that the Titans want to give Tannehill a look, but we all probably know that he’s not the long-term answer as a franchise quarterback either. Can he at least give them some life against LA to keep the Titans from falling too far behind the other teams in the AFC South? That’s a tough question to answer, however if he can get some help from running back Derrick Henry that will certainly help his cause. Henry hasn’t been great recently either as the Tennessee offensive line has really struggled despite the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan. This seems like a spot where Henry could really put together a solid performance and potentially hit the century mark again. As is typically the case with the Titans, their offense goes with Henry and the running game. That being said, it will be interesting to see how much of an impact Tannehill has on Corey Davis, A.J. Brown and Delanie Walker in the passing game. Tannehill is capable of making all of the throws, he just tends to miss them a little too regularly for an NFL quarterback.
Another really difficult game to handicap with the variable of not only Tannehill but the slew of injuries and returning players for the Chargers. This is a classic case of someone has to win, right? You’ve got to be pretty brave to go out on a limb for either of these teams.
Yanni’s Pick – Titans -2 (Titans 23, Chargers 20)
JJ’s Pick – Titans -2
vs. 
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-1) at CHICAGO BEARS (3-2)
Sunday – October 20th – 4:25pm
Spread: Dallas Chicago Bears -4
Over/Under: 37
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 60%
The Breakdown:
In another important NFC contest Teddy Bridgewater gets another start and faces his toughest test yet against the Bears defense at Soldier Field in Chicago. Bridgewater has done everything you could ask of a backup quarterback and then some as he’s been poised and efficient steering the team to continued victories. He’s kept Michael Thomas a focal point in the passing game and found a way to get Jared Cook, Ted Ginn and others involved when Thomas is doubled. Throw in the fact that Alvin Kamara has been key in the game plan and this offense can still do a little damage even without Drew Brees. It will be tough against the Bears but they do get a bit of a break with Akiem Hicks being placed on IR which hurts the their depth and rotation. Look for Matt Nagy to try to take away Michael Thomas in the passing game so for the Saints to find success they’ll need Kamara and Latavius Murray to get some things going on the ground.
The Bears get QB Mitchell Trubisky back after missing time and look to both rebound and get their offense scoring points. Since Drew Brees has been out of the lineup the Saints defense has really stepped up to support Bridgewater and the offense. What will the Bears offensive gameplan look like against this Saints defense? Can they establish a running game? Will Allen Robinson and their receivers be able to get free against the Saints secondary with how well they’re playing? More than likely Chicago will look to control field position and not make a lot of big plays or mistakes on that side of the ball. The total of this game is set at 37 and that might be generous based on the actual matchups and trends here.
The weekend injury update has Alvin Kamara ruled out which is enough to merit a pick change from the Saints to the Bears. This should still be a one score type of game and the spread seems pretty spot on so best of luck if you’re taking a chance on this game.
Yanni’s Pick – Bears -4 (Bears 21, Saints 16)
JJ’s Pick – Bears -4
vs. 
BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-2) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-1)
Sunday – October 20th – 4:25pm
Spread: Seattle Seahawks -3
Over/Under: 49.5
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 53%
The Breakdown:
A lot of similarities between these two teams in addition to their impressive records to start the season. A couple of athletic quarterbacks playing at a high level and some opportunistic defenses that are transitioning from some heavy hitting dominance to being more of a supporting role for their team. This seems like the game to watch in the late window as there should be some big plays, highlights and a lot of action on both sides of the ball.
The jury is still out on just how good this Baltimore Ravens offense truly is. It’s clear that between Lamar Jackson, a strong running game, and tight end Mark Andrews they can control the tempo and move the ball. It’s still really hard to tell if this offense is truly dynamic, or more of a gimmick that good teams and defenses will be able to stop? We may not get that answer this week as they seem to match up pretty well against the Seattle defense. You can expect a lot of runs as usual and whether or not Bobby Wagner and the Hawks’ can put the Ravens in 3rd and long situations will be the key to slowing them down. Seattle likes to play a more downhill attacking style of defense and that could work against them if they can’t contain Jackson in the pocket and in the running game.
Russell Wilson is making a clear push for league MVP and with Patrick Mahomes scheduled to miss some time his odds just got a little bit better. This seems like the type of game that Wilson will absolutely thrive in both passing and running the football. Speaking of running, Chris Carson is really turning the corner and starting to put together a nice season as the featured back in their offense. In a cliche statement, whoever wants it more between the Seahawks offensive line and Ravens front seven will play a big factor in who wins this game. One guy that you can count on being fired up is Earl Thomas as he returns to Seattle for the first time since his tenuous departure. Wilson knows Thomas well so he might have the advantage on when and where to take shots deep against the Ravens defense. One important thing to watch is how much the loss of tight end Will Dissly impacts Wilson and the offense. Dissly was turning in a Pro-Bowl type season prior to going down with an unfortunate injury last week.
You pretty much know what you’re getting with both of these teams which makes breaking down the game fairly easy other than a few small questions. Even with that, it’s not an easy one to pick as the spread seems right about where it should be so not a lot of value either way. Doesn’t Russell Wilson pretty much always play in field goal games? The 12th man will be in full effect for this one and it should be a good one.
Yanni’s Pick – Seahawks -3 (Seahawks 32, Ravens 27)
JJ’s Pick – Ravens +3
vs. 
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-3) at DALLAS COWBOYS (3-3)
Sunday – October 20th – 8:20pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -3
Over/Under: 49.5
Public Money Percentage: Philadelphia 57%
The Breakdown:
The two front-runners for NFC East champion will meet in Dallas with the winner taking the lead in the division and the loser falling below .500 nearly halfway through the season. The Cowboys have won the previous three meetings against the Eagles and other than laying an egg against the Packers have been a strong team at AT&T Stadium. Will they be able to continue their recent dominance against the Eagles and stop their three game losing streak or will Doug Pederson’s confident winning predictions come to fruition for the still hobbled Eagles?
The Eagles are only ranked 20th in the league in offense through their first six games which has to be disappointing for a team that was expected to move the ball and score easily this season. The absence of DeSean Jackson is having a clear impact on them as it completely changes the way opposing defenses are able to play them. Carson Wentz has played gritty ball and kept the Eagles competitive even with the defense taking on water repeatedly. It’s not just the lack of the deep threat that has hurt this offense, the big men upfront have not played as well as the team had expected so far. They’ll be without stalwart Jason Peters at left tackle as he’ll miss the game so we’ll get a good look at their first round draft pick Andre Dillard. Robert Quinn has been one of the few bright spots over the last few weeks for a struggling Cowboys defense so the matchup of Dillard and Quinn will be one to keep a close eye on. Dallas has gotten pushed around on the interior and Pederson will need to stay balanced with Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders to control the line of scrimmage in the ground game. Another Eagle that has been somewhat quiet is tight end Zach Ertz. He and Wentz have made some connections, but compared to the volume and productivity they had in the previous seasons something hasn’t quite clicked yet. He’ll need to have a big game Sunday to help draw some coverage away from the Philly wideouts.
Cowboy head coach Jason Garrett has been feeling the heat in the media, something that’s not new to him or the organization on the heels of their recent losing streak. Dallas actually had a decent plan against the Jets in week six and did a great job getting Ezekiel Elliott back to being the focal point on offense. The big issues came defensively where they were burned by big plays and in losing the turnover battle. Over the past few weeks we’ve highlighted the Eagles injury problems, but as of recently, the Cowboys are saddled with some significant injuries of their own. Amari Cooper is very questionable to be able to play with his thigh bruise and Randall Cobb is still yet to practice. Both Cowboy Pro Bowl tackles missed the game against the Jets and it still remains to be seen if they’ll be able to go against Philadelphia or if they’ll be limited. All of this puts a lot of pressure on Dak Prescott and Elliott to shoulder the load on that side of the ball. While they are capable of doing that, this offense goes from average to darn good when they have other contributors and are hitting big plays. Check the injury report after Friday as who the Cowboys have available for this game could play a big factor in the outcome.
If you monitor the trends you’ll find that the Eagles have done very well as underdogs ATS on the road, while Dallas as done well as a home favorite ATS. Something has to break in this one and it could possibly be the scoreboard as neither team is playing very good defense. In Philly it’s due to subpar talent in the secondary and some really key injuries. In Dallas it’s a little more of a mystery as this defense should be performing at a much higher level than they actually are. Divisional games can seem tough to handicap, however they’re usually a little easier as the teams know each other well and we generally know what we’re getting with them. Here are a couple of things we pretty much can bank on for this game: It’s probably going to be a close game that comes down to some late scoring to determine the outcome. In games like that, taking the point is obviously beneficial. We can also bank on the fact that the Eagles will be better coached with Pederson and Jim Schwartz, compared to Garrett and Rod Marinelli. Philadelphia is a very live dog in this game and if you’re a risk taker you may want to consider grabbing them on the ML which you can get for as high as +130, or possibly splitting your play between the ML and taking the points. We’ll have a unit on this game for now, and we’ll possibly be adding to that depending on the Cowboys final injury report.
Yanni’s Pick – Eagles +3 (Eagles 31, Cowboys 30)
JJ’s Pick – Eagles +3
vs. 
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-0) at NEW YORK JETS (1-4)
Monday – October 21st – 8:15pm
Spread: New England Patriots -10
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: New England 52%
A couple of weeks ago and we probably would have been looking at a spread of nearly double this as the Jets were completely inept and New England was looking like their usual unstoppable selves. Here we are with the Monday Night Football game and some chatter around the country about how the Pats’ are due for an upset at the hands of this revitalized Jets team. Could that actually happen, and how big of an upset would it actually be?
We hear a lot of talk about Tom Brady slowing down, or if he will slow down, but there is something else that’s really interesting to watch on this Patriots offense. Julian Edelman seems to be the one that is actually losing a step as perhaps injuries and age are catching up and effecting his quickness in the slot. That isn’t to suggest that Edelman still isn’t a top receiver in the league, maybe just not quite as unstoppable with his quickness as in seasons past. We saw the same thing happen with Gronk the last couple of years and it happens to everyone sooner or later. A lot has been made about the New England receiving group, however Gordon, Edelman and Dorsett should be enough for Brady to have his pick, if the trio can find a way to stay healthy and on the field together. New England is going to have to find ways to get the ball out quickly and move the sticks through the air in this game as the Jets are far more vulnerable defensively in the passing game than in the running game. C.J. Mosley may make his return Monday which would be a huge boost to this Jets defense and would pretty much help make Sony Michel a non-factor in this game. While Brady can certainly win a game throwing 50 times, that’s not the style that’s working as well for the Pats’ these days. If New England does have to play a one dimensional game, will the NE offensive line be able to give Brady enough time to spread the ball around? The Jets faithful will be fired up at home in a place that Brady has had occasional challenges in the past.
Everyone knows that quarterback is the most important position on the field and Sam Darnold hammered that point home hard last week. The Jets offense that was completely stalled behind third stringer Luke Falk suddenly looked very capable as the running game finally got a little traction and Darnold was able to not only move the chains but also hit some huge plays. The entire team was motivated by his return and it’s pretty amazing to see what confidence and belief can do for a club. Darnold and the offense are going to have a much bigger obstacle against the Patriots whose defense continues to play at a ridiculously high level, Stephon Gilmore and the NE secondary is not going to allow Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder much on the outside so where will the Jets offense come from? Le’Veon Bell was brought in for just this reason as his ability to make people miss in the running game as well as the passing game will be needed for the Jets to pull this upset.
This game is going to go one of two ways. It will either be a low scoring defensive slugfest that comes down to one possession at the end of the game to determine the winner, or New England is going to win by 20+ points in overwhelming fashion. Most people seem to believe that it will be the first scenario and we tend to agree. It could just be past history, but when people start talking about New England being vulnerable, don’t they go ahead and just blow their next opponent out?
