Regardless of the outcome, I must say that last night’s Super Bowl was one hell of a contest. Props go out to my BetCrushers partner, Yanni, who led us in our inaugural season of NFL handicapping. It’s been a learning lesson with the website since our Memorial Day launch and we appreciate having you as an audience. Saturday’s featured college hoops handicaps ended in a split as Cal Baptist rolled again while Bradley could not stay inside the number. With that, let’s get after it with the Road Dog Report for 2/3/2020.
(1501) Lafayette @ Bucknell -1
The 14-7 Lafayette Leopards head for the hills in a Patriot League showdown with the 9-14 Bucknell Bison. The Leopards are jammed up in the third position of the conference standings, tied with Army, Navy, and American. Bucknell is right behind them and needs this home win to avoid falling four games behind Colgate. They’ve dropped their last two games while Lafayette has won three straight. However, the long-term trend strongly favors the Bison who have won nine straight against the Leopards.
I featured the Leopards on December 29th in their final non-conference game against Sacred Heart. They squeezed out a road win as 4-point dogs behind strong performances from Justin Jaworski, E.J. Stephens, and Myles Cherry. Coach Fran O’Hanlon manages this roster interestingly in that Stephens and Cherry are two of their most productive players, yet they come off the bench. 6’1″ guard Justin Jaworski is a 36.0% shooter from downtown who averaged over 25 PPG over the Leopards’ three-game win streak. He’s not the guy you want to send to the line with a 90.1% FT proficiency.
Taking it Outside
Bucknell counters with a trio of guards that regularly turn over their opponents with disruptive defense. The backcourt of Jimmy Sotos, Andrew Funk, and Avi Toomer regularly contribute about half of the Bisons’ points. The trio has been somewhat more inconsistent since entering league play, but the Leopards cannot let their guard down against them. They hit hard when they are on point. Realistically, the Bucknell backcourt is forced to carry the load because their inside presence is a one-man show with John Meeks. 6’8″ senior Bruce Moore hasn’t given them much this season, but the 6’6″ Meeks is a dynamic player who is great from the line (84.8%) and can step out to knock down the three ball (37.1%).
Lafayette does not run their offense through the inside, yet they are one of the Patriot League’s most efficient shooting teams inside the arc. Keep an eye on the Myles Cherry/Lukas Jarrett vs. John Meeks/Bruce Moore battles, especially if Bucknell continues to be heavy-handed with personal fouls. The Leopards are the league’s best free throw-shooting team and can really hurt the Bison if they continue this negative trend. Lafayette’s perimeter shooting should dictate who wins tonight’s game. They’ve taken and made the second-most three point shots in the conference at 35.1%.
This was evident when the Leopards were upset 78-66 by Bucknell at home on January 5th. Lafayette shot 40% that night and was cold from the perimeter at 7-25. Bucknell’s big three guards combined for 43 points as the team shot a stellar 10-19 from beyond the arc. Will coach O’Hanlon alter the game plan by using Cherry and Jarrett more on the offensive end? My guess is that he sticks to what has brought them overall success, recognizing that the Leopards had a poor shooting night while Bucknell punched well above their weight.
On the Money
Lafayette’s 14-5-1 record outshines Bucknell’s 8-15 ATS mark and we catch the Leopards on a 6-2 ATS run. They covered their last three games, including two on the road. Despite failing to cover their last two games, the Bison are 3-1 ATS in their last four home games. I’d be lying if I wasn’t concerned about Bucknell’s recent domination of the Leopards, but I am on Lafayette +1 with expectations of a shooting performance much better than in their January 5th meeting.
