The NASCAR Playoffs action is getting intense in the lead up to the Cup Series’ middle race of Round 2. After six months of regular-season racing, the circuit is back at one of the United States’ baddest tracks: Talladega Superspeedway. Let’s roll with the BetCrushers Talladega NASCAR race preview!
We tried to follow up on a big day of handicapping the Charlotte Roval with the Dover race last week. Unfortunately, our main man, Chase Elliott, had an engine failure and bowed out after eight short laps. We gained great line value by grabbing most of our plays early in the week before the prices got worse but, nonetheless, shit happens on the track sometimes. Kyle Larson (one of our Championship futures drivers) got a much needed win at Dover and stayed in the Championship hunt while Chase may have been delivered a knockout blow.
This week’s NASCAR Playoffs visits the home of a lot of shit happening. Nobody is ever safe from The Big One taking them right out of the race at any time. Look no further than this April’s running at Talladega for some high-flying action that took Kyle Larson for a spin:
Talladega Superspeedway Track Overview
‘Dega is big. Real big. This 2.66-mile tri-oval is the longest oval track on the NASCAR circuit. Although the backstretch is nearly flat, the turns are banked over 33 degrees. This ensures that the drivers can maintain speeds nearing 200 mph. That’s pretty damn fast and a big reason why it’s a semi-annual tradition to see cars flying all over the place.
All things considered, the track layout and high speeds are pretty straightforward. Folklore will tell you that Talladega is cursed; a pit crew member lost his leg in a freak accident, an air tank exploded in the pits, Davey Allison’s helicopter crashed in the infield, etc. Maybe something about the track being constructed on a Native American burial ground? Regardless, Talladega is the home of The Big One that is legendary in nature but way too real. The omnipresent hallmark wreck (plus several other medium-sized crashes) is hell on handicappers, yet we keep taking our shots at ‘Dega.
Weekend Schedule
Just like last week at Dover, the Cup Series boys are back on a typical pre-race schedule. Friday hosts a pair of practice sessions that should tell us a ton about what the teams are bringing to the big show on Sunday. The late-afternoon practice should replicate racing conditions as well as anything can. Rubber will be down on the track and drivers will be pushing their cars to be race-ready.
Qualifying takes place Saturday afternoon, arranging the starting grid for Sunday’s showdown. The aftermath of qualifying doesn’t affect our handicapping much, so expect for most of our betting positions to be developed in the mid-week or after the practice sessions conclude. Check our NASCAR coverage page on BetCrushers.com or stay tuned to our Twitter account to see where we’ve put our money. Our final handicapping article will drop Saturday night, but that may be too late to grab some good numbers.
The Playoff Picture after Dover’s Tumult
All things considered, Dover was a fairly clean race. Two huge outcomes of that 400-lap affair were Kyle Larson punching his ticket to the next round, and Chase Elliott essentially watching his Championship pursuit die in the garage. Chase will need a win at Talladega or in Kansas next week to survive Round 2.
Although Larson is safe for now he needs to make up more ground this week because Round 3 does not start out well for him. Martinsville is not his kind of track and Texas has been very unkind. The final elimination will come at Phoenix, which is the best of the three tracks for Larson. Can he overcome Busch and Harvick, who have dominated ISM Raceway, in order to be a contender at Homestead?
Round 3 sets up well for powerhouses like Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., and Kevin Harvick. Who is going to rise up to either join them or push them out of the way? The guys in positions 7-12 are in serious danger if they cannot take a checkered flag or post back-to-back strong races. There’s two spots above the cut line up for grabs and six guys gunning for them. It’s going to be as crazy as ever at Talladega.
Who Can Survive The Big One?
Playing the odds at Talladega may seem like trusting your money with the croupier at the roulette table. In our opinion, it’s comes down to isolating which drivers have kept their noses cleaner than the rest. Rarely will you ever see an odds board like the one below where most everyone is clumped in the +1000 or greater range to win.
You can blame this muddled odds board on The Big One and the multiple smaller crashes that will rock the track Sunday afternoon. Betting to win can be a risky proposition, though a smaller bet like a quarter-unit play may be appropriate to catch a few contenders with great odds while limiting your exposure. Who is on our radar this week? Will we need to use a different strategy, knowing that anyone is susceptible to being wiped out in an instant?
Joey Logano
You won’t get a disagreement from us about who sits on top of the opening odds board. Joey has been rock solid at Talladega, placing in the Top 5 in six of his last eight races. What about the two races he did not finish near the top? You probably guessed it, DNFs due to accident. The remarkable thing about Logano’s run at ‘Dega is his three wins in those eight races, justifying his top spot at the opener. He’s featured in two early-week matchups against Keselowski and Elliott as a -130 favorite. That’s too much to lay considering the explosive conditions at Talladega.
Alex Bowman
Bowman is a guy who has snuck his way into this week’s conversation with back-to-back Top 3 finishes at Dover and the Roval. He currently sits inside the cut line to make the next round of the playoffs, but needs to keep the pressure on to climb the postseason ladder. He’s raced at Talladega only three times since joining the #88 Hendrick Motorsports team full time in 2016 but has been relatively strong in those showings.
Alex Bowman (+1760) to Win (1/4 unit)
Bowman’s disappointing finish last fall was sandwiched between an 8th-place finish and a runner up behind Chase Elliott this spring. The stars need to align for anyone to fade The Big One and win at Talladega, but this is a good price for a playoff driver that has been very close to winning the last couple weeks. We give Alex about a 10% chance of winning the race, so we’ll play him to win at +1760 for 1/4-unit with a reasonable shot at a good return.
Alex Bowman (-115) over Ryan Blaney
Assuming Bowman stays clean on Sunday (which is a big assumption), he should have a sizable advantage over Ryan Blaney. We love Bowman’s current form as a hungry runner-up who needs to outrace guys like Blaney that sit outside of the playoffs cut line. Blaney should be hungry too, but the fact that he’s failed to make the Top 10 at Talladega in his last six races gives the edge to Bowman in this matchup.
Hunting for Top 10 Finishers
It’s all about survival at Talladega. The chances of making it through 500 miles without ending the day off the track or several laps down are significantly less than usual. We shift gears and approach this race as a matter of survival. Which drivers have odds in the Top 10 market commensurate with the handicapped probability of them finishing as such? Our account that offers a Top 10 market has not posted these odds as of early Wednesday morning. Keep your eye out for our wagers on Twitter or on our NASCAR page, because once these lines go up we will likely pounce on favorable numbers for the guys below:
Kurt Busch
It’s been weeks since we’ve highlighted Kurt as a driver to back. He’s since been knocked out of the postseason but showed that he’s still competitive with a 9th place finish at Dover last week. Kurt Busch nearly won at Talladega last spring, though that’s not necessarily why we have our sights set on him. Simply put, Kurt does a very good job of keeping his nose clean here. He’s finished in the Top 10 in seven of the last ten runnings and we estimate him at 45% to do so again on Sunday, making +140 or better an acceptable price.
Aric Almirola
AA is on a ho-hum run of six straight finishes in the teens. This is a big reason why he barely missed the cut to Round 2 of the NASCAR Playoffs. If you look at his 2019 season, that’s pretty much what he had consistently done so there’s not much to read into his current form. At Talladega, however, he’s on a different streak altogether. Almirola has posted six straight Top 10 finishes including a win last fall. Like Kurt, we give him about a 45% chance to finish in the Top 10 and will be looking for +140 or better.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Ricky is the biggest wild card among our featured drivers this week. He hasn’t shown us much this season and currently boasts three straight finishes in the teens. If you’ve noticed, Talladega is different and Stenhouse gets different results here. He won at the Superspeedway in 2017 and has four Top 5 finishes in his last six races (the other two races were DNFs due to accident). Along with Daytona, Talladega is one of Ricky’s favorite tracks and the results reflect that. We put him on a coin flip to finish Top 10 and will take +125 or higher when the odds post.
