It’s race day and the weather looks beautiful for today’s 400-mile race at Michigan International Speedway. We brought you a track overview and key driver analysis in Wednesday’s preview, then made adjustments based on qualifications and practice sessions in yesterday’s post. Saturday’s duel practices told us a lot about how the cars should perform in live action today. The BetCrushers team has some final handicapping for today’s 400-mile NASCAR Cup race on a fast Michigan track.
Saturday’s Final Practices: Winners and Losers
Two guys rose to the top in Saturday’s practices: Kevin Harvick and Erik Jones. Jones topped the field in the final session with a scorching 38.269-second 10-lap average. This came on the heels of a strong early session, though his 16th position on the starting grid has suppressed his to-win odds around +1800. We looked at the Jones vs. Blaney matchup yesterday, noting:
Pay attention to these drivers in today’s final practice. Blaney was strong on Friday, but was significantly weaker than Jones in the AM session. This matchup opened at Blaney -110 but moved to -125 after he qualified 7th to Jones’ 16th. The final practice session should tell us whether Erik’s #20 Toyota is the right play tomorrow.
Ryan Blaney had a good final practice and sits in the 7th position to start this afternoon. He is the -105 dog to Jones’ -125. That being said, we couldn’t pull the trigger on this matchup. Instead, we’ve split these guys up and taken them against a pair of other drivers.
Erik Jones vs. Joey Logano
Logano won at MIS in the weather-affected June night race and looks to have a competitive car for today’s Consumer Energy 400. His final practice was lackluster, however he was strong otherwise this weekend and will start in the 8th position. Joey has an extensive body of work at Michigan but does it warrant being a -190 favorite over Erik Jones? Anything can happen on the track, but our ears are open to an argument why Jones won’t continue to produce strong finishes.
Erik Jones is racing with a sense of urgency, as he may be the odd man out with Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of the season. He’s finished in the Top 5 in four straight races and has six T10s in his last seven.
Jones is arguably the hottest driver on the Cup circuit. He’s been a contender this summer at the Watkins Glen road course, the Pocono triangle, Charlotte, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and pretty much everything in between. This is way too big of a price to pass up, so we grabbed +155 with Jones over Logano this morning as a value play.
Ryan Blaney vs. Clint Bowyer
Clint Bowyer’s #14 Ford looked really good this weekend. He’ll start 5th and appears to have a Top-10 ride on the fast Michigan track. Bowyer has been a popular and profitable fade target for us this season. Clint won here in the June 2018 night race and finished 12th in last year’s August running. Other than that, he’s been outside the Top 20 in six of his last eight races at MIS.
Ryan Blaney T10ed his last three Cup races, and has been in the Top 15 in ten of his last twelve. Since joining Penske in 2018, Blaney has been good at MIS, finishing 8th, 5th, and 9th. He qualified right around his finishing position in each of those races. Barring any issues today, he will start 7th tomorrow.
Blaney also looks strong and has produced more consistent finishes at Michigan recently. He’s been a better contender this summer altogether, so why bother pitting him against Erik Jones? Don’t let Bowyer’s win here in 2018 fool you; Blaney is up for the task and is a play as a -108 dog to Clint.
Final BetCrushers Michigan Betting Card
- Kevin Harvick (-115) over Brad Keselowski
- Kevin Harvick (-115) over Kyle Busch
- Kurt Busch (-115) over Kyle Larson
- Kurt Busch (+100) Top 10
- Erik Jones (+155) over Joey Logano
- Ryan Blaney (-108) over Clint Bowyer
