What a roller coaster last night’s Bradley/Missouri State turned out to be. Bradley worked themselves into a nice 10-point halftime lead last night even without one of their best players, Elijah Childs. However, Missouri State came out hot after the break, went on a big 12-0 run to take a 10-point lead, but then yielded to a ton of Bradley bombs from downtown. No doubt about it, I’ll that solo shot win in conference play. Thursday’s college hoops slate is a big one, and we’re tackling a pair of handicaps in the Road Dog Report for 1/16/2020.
(649) Georgia State @ South Alabama Pk
A big Sun Belt Conference showdown is brewing tonight in Mobile, as the 12-6 Georgia State Panthers take on the 11-7 South Alabama Jaguars. The Panthers would love to notch a win against the league leader, who sits atop the standings with a 5-2 conference record. It’s not easy to knock off USA at the Mitchell Center, a place where the Jaguars are 6-3 this season.
The last time we broke down the Panthers was January 1st for a Thursday night league game at Appalachian State. They played a strong game as 3-point dogs, getting a big 69-60 road win. It was a good bounce-back for GSU after taking a loss at SMU. The Panthers lack length, but battle with a scrappy approach and great perimeter shooting. Their guard-heavy lineup is necessitated by lackluster forwards Josh Linder and Jalen Thomas.
Georgia State is led by a handful of guards who seem to take turns having big nights. However, they get consistent play from transfers Corey Allen and Justin Roberts. Allen was great in their last two games after the team’s collective letdown loss at Arkansas State. Roberts had a couple no-shows lately, but he’s a major perimeter threat that came up big with a 23-point performance last time out behind 7-9 shooting from downtown. It’s this simple: if this GSU team is cold with their jumpers, they struggle. If they’re on points like they usually are, they can run their opponent out of the gym.
South Alabama counters with forwards Josh Ajayi and Trhae Mitchell, whose size is a tricky matchup for the Panthers. Ajayi will most certainly get his, especially considering that he’s posted double-double performances in three of their last five games. The Jaguars have a fine guard of their own in 6’4″ senior Chad Lott. Lott is a high-percentage scorer who doesn’t do much from the perimeter and gives his team a consistent 15-20 points each night. Bottom line: GSU must lean on their disruptive defense and excellent shooting to offset tonight’s size disadvantage.
On the Money
Georgia State comes into tonight’s game with an 11-4-1 ATS record that includes 4-0-1 ATS as a Road Dog. Granted, they aren’t catching any points and have a losing (4-6) record away from home this season. Take that with a grain of salt, as they’ve traveled to Duke, Georgetown, Cal Baptist, and SMU. They were short favorites in their last two road games – a pair of close losses against a good Coastal Carolina team and a subpar Arkansas State team. The Arkansas State loss was one just of those games where a perimeter shooting team wasn’t making their shots. That goes with the territory for a squad of this composition.
South Alabama is 6-9-1 ATS this season, and only 2-5 ATS at home. Considering that the Jaguars are 6-3 at home, you can deduce that they’ve struggled to cover when laying points. Again, tonight is a pick ’em (although as of early this morning you can find GSU +1.5) so the Jags simply need to win the game to cover. They’re fresh off of three straight wins, including a win and cover as a favorite over Arkansas State at home. I placed this wager Wednesday night when this was a pick ’em, based purely off of my ratings. I have Georgia State as a solid 8 points better than South Alabama on a neutral court, making GSU the play. That said, you can now do better with an insurance point or two in case they get edged out by the Jaguars.
(667) Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine -7.5
7-10 Loyola Marymount squares off against the 8-9 Pepperdine Waves in Malibu tonight. Both teams are 1-2 in WCC play and need a win to stay afloat in league play. The LMU Lions have not had much success away from home with a 1-6 record that includes a buzzer-beater by UC Davis that sunk my pick ’em ticket on December 16th. Pepperdine, on the other hand, has defended Firestone Fieldhouse quite well at a 5-2 mark.
Our last handicap for LMU was on December 16th, and not much has changed with this team’s composition. 6’5″ forward Eli Scott continues to be their leading man in the scoring department. You won’t find Scott on the bench much, which is good for the Lions, because he’s the pivotal cog of this offense.
The greatest asset of this Lions team is their size. LMU must manage the pace of the game and keep possessions to a minimum to have any success since they don’t have dynamic talent. 6’7″ forward Ivan Alipiev is a guy who needs to show up tonight by playing solid defense and delivering at least ten points.
The Waves move the ball well and thrive at the free throw line (83.5%). Case in point, 6’1″ guard Colbey Ross is a guy who isn’t the most efficient shooter but is one who creates scoring opportunities and habitually finds himself at the charity stripe where he makes 88.8% of those shots. Ross is averaging a tick over 20 points per game in their three WCC matchups, including 24 in a tight game at Gonzaga. Brothers Kameron and Kessler Edwards are a solid front court tandem who are good scorers and rebounders. The Edwards brothers will undoubtedly test LMU’s Alipiev and company tonight.
On the Money
LMU is an ugly team on paper and their on-court play isn’t the most exciting. In all honesty, this game is all about the number. Pepperdine has struggled against the spread in seven spots as a home favorite. Despite going 5-2 straight up, the Waves covered only one spread when laying points at home (November 9th vs. UC Irvine as a 1-point favorite).
The catch is that LMU hasn’t been the most efficient when getting points this season. They got thumped by BYU and Gonzaga in their last two games and weren’t able to cover the +16 and +18.5. LMU is 4-4 ATS as a dog otherwise. I rate Pepperdine about 2.5 points better than the Lions on a neutral court, and this is a situation where the Waves are just laying too many points given their track record of not covering as a home favorite. Give me the +7.5 with LMU.
That wraps up the Road Dog Report for 1/16/2020. Two handicaps in the books and two tickets in hand. Be sure to follow us on Twitter or subscribe below to get notified when future Road Dog Reports and our NFL Championship Round handicapping drop!
