After a few days without any college hoops action, the Road Dog Report is back! Saturday’s pair of featured handicaps (Florida International and Northern Arizona) split as each squad attempted a second-half comeback. One was successful, the other was not. I was built to grind and so we push forward with the Road Dog Report for 2/12/2020.
(817) Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso -4
The 15-10 Southern Illinois Salukis are hot on the trail of Missouri Valley Conference leader Northern Iowa with a 9-3 conference record. They take on the 12-13 Valparaiso Crusaders in a rematch of the January 7th battle at Carbondale. SIU won the previous meeting 63-50 by dictating pace and shutting down Valpo’s offensive attack. Salukis forward Marcus Domask was on point that night, putting up 23 points to go with Eric McGill’s 14. Javon Freeman-Liberty was Valpo’s only double-digit scorer with 16 points. JFL was the lone bright spot offensively for a squad that shot 32.2% from the field and 6-25 from beyond the arc.
Valparaiso is 0-6 this year when it scores 63 points or fewer and 12-7 when it scores at least 64.
S. Illinois looks to extend streak vs Valpo – Feb. 11, 2020
Southern Illinois plays a slow-paced style of basketball that limited their opponents to 63 points or fewer in six of their twelve league games. Valparaiso, on the other hand, scored more than 63 points in three of their last five home games. I recognize that their previous meeting’s 63-50 outcome was an outlying data point when it comes to Valpo’s offensive capabilities. Keeping the Crusaders in check for a second time this season will be a tall task for the Salukis tonight.
How to Get Revenge
The Crusaders are tight with the ball and have generated nearly 9 steals per game in twelve MVC contests. Despite being out-rebounded by a margin of -39 in The Valley, they hold a +9 offensive rebounding edge. Valpo takes a lot of three-point shots in those twelve games but has connected on only 30.4%. Snagging offensive boards – especially from the missed deep shots – is critical for them to overcome a limited-possession scenario that the Salukis often put their opponents in. SIU holds a positive margin in turnovers, fouls, and free throws; indicators of a team that can succeed with a slow-paced approach.
Javon Freeman-Liberty was Valpo’s sole bright spot when these teams last met. This is no surprise as JFL scored double-digits in all 25 games with nearly 6 RPG. His downside is that he falls into the trap of the three-ball, which he has limited success with this season (45-156, 28.8%). 6’7″ Ryan Fazekas missed about ten weeks leading into league play and is now hitting his stride. Fazekas could pose a matchup problem for SIU with his hot hand yielding 7-10 from downtown in his last three games, making him a threat to score from anywhere on the court right now.
Southern Illinois is also a team that relies heavily on a small core of players to lead them offensively. Marcus Domask gets lured by the perimeter like Valpo’s Freeman-Liberty, but does his best work with the high-percentage shot. He torched the Crusaders with 23 points in last month’s meeting and has been a strong performer on the road. Domask scored 69 points in his last three road games and is primed to do more damage tonight. 6’10” Northwestern transfer Barret Benson gives the Salukis a strong inside presence with good rebounding, though he has flirted with foul trouble in recent games. Benson demands respect down low with double-digit scoring efforts in six of the last seven games.
On the Money
Both teams have been profitable against the number this season: SIU is 13-10-1 ATS, Valpo is 15-9. The Crusaders have fared well at home in MVC play, going 4-2 straight up and ATS. However, their recent track record paints a different picture. They’ve covered only one of the last three at home, a 10-point victory over Illinois State as a 7-point favorite. Valparaiso did not cover the +3.5 against a tough UNI squad and squeezed by Evansville as a 12.5-point favorite after covering three straight at home.
Southern Illinois has less success in road conference games with a 3-3 record and 2-3-1 ATS mark. Their current form as winners of three straight on the road tells a us different story. Those wins equate to 2-0-1 ATS, with the last road contest yielding the push as 4-point favorites at Evansville. SIU won as 7-point Road Dogs at Drake and +2 at Illinois State prior to defeating the Aces in overtime. I expect Valpo to give them a tougher test tonight and rate the Salukis as a small favorite on a neutral court with that assumption. However, Southern Illinois is playing great basketball with good offensive production and solid defense (by their standards), so give me the +4 at Valpo tonight.
We’ve Got You Covered
Spring Training games get rolling next week and I am ready to rock after diving into our MLB divisional previews. After putting some finishing touches on the San Diego Padres outlook yesterday, I moved on our fourth season win total for the 2020 season. Our futures portfolio positions are posted on the MLB page at BetCrushers.com. The first of six divisional previews is scheduled to drop on February 24th, complete with breakdowns of our futures positions. Stay tuned by following us on Twitter or subscribing below. BOL today!
