The playoffs are here, and there’s no better place to kick them off than Las Vegas! At least from the perspective of a handicapper and bettor, it sure can’t be beat. Several of our drivers have been on the wrong side of wrecks the last couple races and we’re ready to get back in the winner’s circle. It’s time for the Betcrushers.com Las Vegas South Point 400 NASCAR race preview!
Las Vegas Motor Speedway Overview
The first of ten playoff races takes place at the 1.5-mile, tri-oval Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday. Progressive banking in the turns was added during the track’s 2006 reconfiguration, gradually increasing the bank from 12 degrees on the inside to 20 degrees on the outside. To put it simply, this lets the boys fly through the turns with two-wide racing.
The Cup Series began visiting Las Vegas Motor Speedway twice a year in 2018. This change enabled it to be both an early-season stop and the start to the postseason. Prior to that, it was an annual venue on the circuit that was owned by Jimmie Johnson during his dominant stretch in NASCAR. Johnson won here at Las Vegas a record four times. Unfortunately, Jimmie hasn’t seen much success on this track since 2016 and barely missed making the playoffs last week at Indy.
Weekend Schedule
The week leading up to the South Point 400 is full of events that cater to the bright lights and tourists on the Las Vegas Strip. When it comes to tuning up for Sunday’s race, there will be a pair of practice sessions Friday afternoon in between Truck Series and Xfinity Series events. Qualifying takes place Saturday afternoon ahead of the 400-mile race at 7:00 p.m. ET Sunday. Expect to see our final race handicapping late Saturday/early Sunday.
Recent Success
Defending NASCAR Cup Champion Joey Logano took the checkered flag in the Vegas spring race after notching six straight Top-10 finishes in the desert. His early win in 2019 showed us that the #22 Ford was not going to give up the title easily. Including Logano, it’s the big guns who have taken home the hardware from Las Vegas in recent years. Kevin Harvick has won it twice since 2015 and Martin Truex, Jr. won in 2017 during his title run.
Brad Keselowski: Mr. Vegas
Another 2019 playoff contender who has crushed it here is Brad Keselowski, who is our “Mr. Vegas” this weekend. He won the South Point 400 in 2018, which was his third win in a row heading into the playoffs. Prior to that, Brad won in 2014 and 2016 while finishing in the Top 10 in every Vegas race since 2014.
Brad’s recent form coming into the postseason has been less than dominant, even if you put last week’s early exit from the Brickyard 400 aside. After all, two drivers we backed in that race (Keselowski and Jones) took each other out. Going into Indy, we felt that he was gaining momentum with a pair of T5s at Bristol and Darlington. The #2 Ford was fast in practice last weekend and was tuned up for the race, so a strong rebound performance was expected at Indy.
We can’t back Keselowski to win the South Point 400 at short odds in the +550 to +600 range, especially with Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch all positioned as legitimate race winners with similar odds. Though you’ll have to lay a price, the Top 3 (currently +160) and Top 10 markets may make more sense. Brad is -105 to Kyle Busch’s -125 in their head-to-head matchup. This is another way to play him without needing him to win or having to lay big odds. Though we haven’t bet it, this will most likely be in our portfolio this week.
Our Las Vegas Watchlist
Other than the usual top dogs, who in the field has a good chance of finishing strong and getting his backers paid? Looking at the last ten years of NASCAR at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, you see lesser-known guys like Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, and Ryan Blaney consistently finishing well. After narrowing down the pre-qualification pool, we’ve focused on a pair of young drivers for early matchup plays:
Kyle Larson: Always the Bridesmaid?
Larson had a disappointing 12th place finish in the early-season race at Vegas after stringing together three Top-3 performances in 2017 and 2018. We see him at +300 in the Top 3 pool on Wednesday morning, which is a very viable bet. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is prime habitat for the big dogs, so is Kyle ready to push his way into the pack? We need a few days to evaluate whether taking a shot at +1330 to win or a Top 10 wager makes sense.
Kyle Larson (-115) over Erik Jones
In the meantime, we have a ticket backing him over young gun Erik Jones. And no, there is no grudge with Jones for taking himself and Brad Keselowski out last week. This is all about performance. Larson has the much better resume at Vegas without a doubt. He loves racing high in the turns and the progressive banking here enables that. Jones won at Darlington and had a good run in the mid-summer but this pick-em situation has Kyle Larson written all over it.
Ryan Blaney: Under the Radar
Ryan Blaney sits in 12th place in the NASCAR standings, one spot below Kyle Larson. Both of these young drivers need to make a splash in Vegas to get further above the cut line. Blaney has stayed under the radar lately because he’s been out of the Top 5 since Watkins Glen. He finds himself in the mix more often than not at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, though he just didn’t have the car in the spring race here.
Ryan Blaney (-115) over Kurt Busch
If you’ve been following our NASCAR coverage on BetCrushers.com, you know that Kurt Busch is a guy that we like to back in the Top 10 markets in certain spots. However, the Las Vegas native has been sketchy at best on his hometown track. His 5th place finish this spring is slightly concerning in regard to the position we’ve taken against him, considering that his switch to the #1 team this year could portend a better result this Sunday. Otherwise, Kurt has been outraced by Blaney each time they’ve both been on this track. Neither one has been stellar on the Cup circuit the past few weeks so we’ll side with Blaney’s consistency in the South Point 400.
