We’ve been ugly in the Road Dog Report lately, though the results fortunately haven’t. LaSalle and their 3-10 Atlantic 10 record did not keep them from getting a road win on Saturday. Then we backed a Toledo team last night who had dropped six of eight before their 93-81 win. Marreon Jackson sizzled for the Rockets with a career-high 37 points but that’s yesterday’s news. The lines were up early on Wednesday’s big card, so let’s roll! It’s time to stay ugly with a Summit League showdown in the Road Dog Report for 2/26/2020.
(797) Denver +7.5 @ IPFW
Two teams from the bottom third of the Summit League collide tonight as the 6-22 Denver Pioneers take on the 12-17 IPFW Mastodons. IPFW looks to snap a three-game skid while Denver wants to get an unprecedented winning streak going. After all, they beat Oral Roberts on Thursday in overtime to curb a seven-game losing streak of their own. The Pioneers have yet to win on the road this season, and I don’t expect that to change tonight.
Both teams have struggled this season and some of that can be attributed to turnovers. That’s frustrating for the coaches, fans, and sports betting backers alike. Denver plays with more tempo but is usually outgunned and has committed the most personal fouls in the league. Ironically, IPFW does not get to the line frequently. When they do, it is ugly; they have the worst free throw shooting percentage in the Summit League at 69.5%. The Mastodons live by the deep shot and have made 32.9% in their fourteen conference games.
Tonight’s game features teams that are led offensively by a pair of key guards. Denver’s Ade Murkey and Jase Townsend have combined to average 35.5 PPG, while IPFW’s Jarred Godfrey and Brian Patrick average 27.6 PPG. Godfrey is a selective shooter that gives the Mastodons 10+ points a night, though the Kansas State-transfer Patrick has struggled lately. He scored single digits in seven of the last nine games. The Pioneers’ Murkey is en fuego, having put up 96 points in his last three games and 20+ points in six of his last seven. Townsend is a swingy three-point shooter who scored 20+ in three of the last seven but also had a 0-point outing, demonstrating the volatility in his output.
Round Two
It’s getting deep in the season and most games anymore are rematches. These squads battled in Denver on February 8th, resulting in a 70-63 Road Dog win for the Mastodons. Denver’s main main, Ade Murkey, had only 9 points in the aforementioned lone game in his last seven where he scored less than 20. IPFW guard Deonte Billups came up huge with 15 points and 11 rebounds. It was an ugly affair at the charity stripe as the Mastodons went 14-21 and the Pioneers were 10-22.
On the Money
Denver has been surprisingly good for the betting markets this season. Despite their 6-22 record, the Pioneers have covered 15 games and are 4-2 ATS in conference road games. However, they stumbled in their last road game at Omaha on the 16th as 9.5-point dogs. They covered all four road games prior to the Omaha letdown, all as dogs. On the other end of the court, the Mastodons’ 11-16 season ATS record looks even worse when you dig into their home performance in conference play. They are 1-5 ATS at home and haven’t covered in the Hilliard Gates Center since January 30th.
Denver was a 2-point favorite in their previous meeting but lost by seven points to IPFW. Now the venue is changed a couple weeks later and the point spread jumps by 9.5 points. Neither team has a big home court advantage, so the bookmakers are telling me there is now a 3- or 4-point shift in perspective on these teams? These squads have not changed their stripes in the past three games. It’s not crazy to say that Ade Murkey had an off-night in their last meeting and should easily double his scoring output tonight. Maybe the books overvalued Denver in that game but the line move does not seem warranted. Murkey bounces back and, barring another 0-point performance from Jase Townsend, the Pioneers should stay within the number late as the Mastodons may have trouble icing the game from the line. Again, I’m backing an ugly but effective Road Dog tonight…give me the +7.5 with Denver!
On the Ball
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