College hoops on a Monday afternoon? Count us in! The NFL Conference Championship games treated us well but there’s only one game left for us to handicap in that department. After Sunday’s South Dakota State disappointment, I’m ready to get back on track with the Road Dog Report for 1/20/2020.
(871) Charlotte @ Old Dominion -4.5
The 10-6 Charlotte 49ers meet Conference USA foe Old Dominion for some matinee hoops. ODU is 6-12 on the season but has been much better at home with a 5-2 record at the Chartway Arena. The Monarchs look to get right at home after three straight losses on the road, one of which was against Charlotte.
Charlotte got throttled by Western Kentucky Saturday in a rare game where they let their opponent score more than 70 points. The 49ers were rolling along and undefeated in CUSA play before that 80-63 loss. They won seven of their eight previous games after starting the season 3-4.
Both teams are no strangers to playing slow-paced, defensive games. They are guard-oriented squads whose key players ironically had their worst games of the season against each other when they met on January 11th. Charlotte’s Jordan Shepherd had 6 points and 4 turnovers (albeit, his main weakness), and ODU’s Xavier Green had 2 points on 1-for-12 shooting.
A dominating inside game is not something I should have to worry about, unlike South Dakota yesterday. ODU 6’7″ forward Aaron Carver is an absolute beast on the boards, though his offensive contributions are minimal. Kalu Ezikpe has come off the bench to give the Monarchs solid minutes at times, just not lately. Charlotte’s big man, Amidou Bamba splashes in some productive games but has otherwise been a 20-minute player for the 49ers.
How Does it Unfold Today?
Keep an eye on a pair of 6’1″ freshman guards: ODU’s Malik Curry and Charlotte’s Jahmir Young. Curry averaged 18.3 PPG in his last three games. I don’t know how much to read into it, but those games happened to be on the road. He averaged only 7 PPG in his previous four games which happened to take place at home. Young has come on strong since entering league play, averaging 14.4 PPG.
That 53-47 Charlotte win was as ugly as the score represents. Will we get another sub-60 game again this afternoon? If any team is poised to exceed the 65-point mark, it is (unfortunately) most likely ODU at home. Charlotte must get back to their stifling, slow-paced style to keep today’s game in check.
On the Money
Charlotte has matched its 10-6 record with an equal ATS mark. Their road performance is less impressive at 3-4 ATS, though they’ve split their two CUSA road games as 6-point dogs in both. ODU has fared better ATS than straight up, going 9-8-1 versus the number. They’re a strong 5-2 ATS at home, including a pair of close covers in league play against MTSU (-8.5) and UAB (-5).
ODU is riding a magnificent 7-1-1 ATS run, but looks for revenge against Charlotte to keep things rolling. Given that they just met nine days ago, this is a good comp to consider. The 49ers laid 2.5 points to ODU and ODU is -4.5 today. This implies a 3.5-point home-court advantage that is perhaps a touch high, but not unreasonable.
Some of this may factor in Charlotte’s beatdown at the hands of Western Kentucky. After all, this is the same team that ODU lost to by only two points. Conversely, both teams played Marshall recently. ODU was +4.5 in Huntington and lost by one point. Charlotte was +6 at Marshall and won by two points. Not a whole lot to unpack from that.
What does all this mean? My take is that the 49ers are a couple points undervalued. I derive this from both my ratings and the recent point spreads. That said, ODU has performed very well at home and arguably deserves the line shading from the books. Regardless, I will take Charlotte +4.5 in what could very well be a tight game, despite ODU’s strong revenge angle.
The Road Ahead
The Super Bowl is just a couple weeks away, and you don’t want miss any of our upcoming NFL coverage. The college hoops season continues and our MLB previews are right around the corner. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for daily email alerts when new handicapping articles drop:
