If there’s anything far from a surprise in NASCAR these days, it is Kyle Busch having one of the fastest cars on the track. Friday’s practice sessions showed that the Vegas native has the potential to make a strong statement in the opening race of the 2019 NASCAR postseason. The qualification run won’t be until later today, so our final NASCAR race handicapping for Sunday’s South Point 400 in Las Vegas comes at you on the early side.
Results Speak for Themselves
Kurt Busch logged the fastest lap in Friday’s second practice run, but his brother Kyle had one of the most impressive long-run car of the bunch. The #18 Toyota had the sixth-fastest single-lap of the late session and was top notch in 5-lap and 10-lap runs. We see a corresponding tick down in his to-win race odds from +450 at open to +380 at 5dimes after practice.
Kyle may have the car to beat tomorrow night at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. There’s no debating that. However, you cannot deny that there are several other teams who will put plenty of pressure on Kyle over 400 miles in the desert. Chase Elliott appears to have a very competitive car, as do Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Erik Jones.
Does “Mr. Vegas” Deserve the Title?
Our colleague @NASCARstyleodds was all over Joey Logano vs. Kyle Busch earlier in the week at +110. This was a great way to get a plus-money price against a big (and deserved) public favorite. Logano was a finalist for our key driver this week but was edged out by Brad Keselowski. We played Keselowski early against Kyle after crowning him Mr. Vegas:
Another 2019 playoff contender who has crushed it here is Brad Keselowski, who is our “Mr. Vegas” this weekend. He won the South Point 400 in 2018, which was his third win in a row heading into the playoffs. Prior to that, Brad won in 2014 and 2016 while finishing in the Top 10 in every Vegas race since 2014.
Brad’s practices were very strong; his sixth- and third-fastest laps in Friday’s sessions indicate that. What we’re most interested in is how the #2 Ford performed over longer runs in race trim. Keselowski had the fastest five- and 15-lap averages, supporting our position that he is indeed a contender in tomorrow night’s South Point 400.
There’s a good chance that a guy like Kyle Busch or Joey Logano takes the checkered flag and edges out Mr. Vegas. Kyle is always a scary guy to go against, though we’re doing it in a Brad vs. Kyle matchup in consecutive weeks. We feel strongly about Keselowski, so we doubled down and added a Top 3 ticket at +275.
Logano Putting in Work
Keselowski’s Penske teammate, Joey Logano, put in some serious track time Friday evening. In fact, he was the only guy to register a 25-lap average in the second session. While this isn’t an indicator in itself, you have to respect what he was doing out there.
He tested his Penske Ford across a number of lines and even dropped himself behind slower cars to gauge his car in dirty air. I like what I saw last night with the car’s performance, but also with Joey’s confidence in the #2 Ford. As a result, we grabbed a half-unit +700 ticket on Joey to win the race.
The BetCrushers South Point 400 Las Vegas Betting Card
- Joey Logano +700 to win (1/2 unit)
- Brad Keselowski +275 to finish Top 3
- Brad Keselowski -105 over Kyle Busch
- Kyle Larson -115 over Erik Jones
- Paul Menard -115 over Kurt Busch
