BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 7-8-1
JJ – 7-8-1
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 7-8-1
JJ – 7-8-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP:
The BetCrushers had a pretty ugly week for us picking against the spread, but this should paint a good picture as to why we play specific bets only and incorporate things like teasers and totals to turn a profit. With a less than amazing week 1 record ATS it seems like we need to hype up that our actual posted plays hit at 80% at 4-1. Now that we’ve made ourselves feel better let’s do a quick rewind on last week’s schedule.
Yanni and JJ each finished 7-8-1 against the spread as our hopes of an above water week collapsed along with Denver on the late night-cap of the Monday Night doubleheader. There were two games that really crushed us both, Tampa Bay and the New York Giants. Other than that we split some wins and losses. Looking ahead, the week 2 spreads are not necessarily appealing overall. For whatever it’s worth, we’ll probably be playing a pretty small card this week depending on how much some spreads may move.
WEEK 2:
vs. 
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-1) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (0-1)
Thursday – September 12th – 8:20pm
Spread: Carolina Panthers -7
Over/Under: 49.5
Public Money Percentage: Carolina 64%
The Breakdown:
Thursday night gives us a showdown between NFC South rivals as Tampa Bay travels to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Each team lost their opening game, although the Panthers are most likely able to take away some positives, while the Buccaneers didn’t have a whole lot proud of with their performance. These two teams have really gone back and forth over the past handful of years (they split in 2018) making this one of the more interesting divisional rivalries, even if the teams haven’t necessarily been spectacular.
The Panthers have to be excited to get to work offensively as the saw a Buccaneers team that gave up both some big plays and got pushed around a bit on defense in week one. As usual, you can expect a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey both running and receiving. If Carolina can push the ball downfield they could really put some points on the board. For Tampa Bay to have a shot in this one Jameis Winston is going to have to play a lot better than he did last Sunday against the 49ers, and so does his offensive line. Everyone in football land expected Chris Godwin to be a breakout star, but not at the expense of Mike Evans being a non-factor. Tampa needs to get Evans the ball early and loosen up a Panther’s defense that actually played pretty well despite tiring in the fourth quarter. The biggest potential factor here is homefield on the short week. Home teams not only owned the scoreboard on Thursday night games in 2018 but they often did in impressive fashion. It’s just too much asking a team to travel and be prepared mentally and physically. NUGGET: These teams have routinely stayed under the total as a general rule against each other.
We’re definitely steering clear of this game as you just never know what you’re going to get out of Jameis Winston in a game like this. If you’re dying to bet this game, look for some prop bets or look to tease Carolina -1 with the total in whichever direction you prefer. Otherwise best of luck whichever side you’re on!
Yanni’s Pick – Panthers – 7 (Panthers 32, Buccaneers 23)
JJ’s Pick – Buccaneers +7 (Panthers 31, Buccaneers 27)
vs. 
ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-0-1) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-0)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -13
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 56%
The Breakdown:
You don’t want to read too much into Baltimore’s thrashing of the Dolphins on Sunday as Miami looks like a team that’s going to struggle to win a game this year. With that out in the open, the performance that Lamar Jackson put on what downright magnificent. He threw the ball confidently and accurately and rookie receiver Marquise Brown had the type of game that makes you think Ozzie Newsome wasn’t the only Raven’s GM who knew what they’re doing in the draft. Arizona on the other hand looked absolutely awful through three quarters at home against the Lions. Somehow the light switch flicked and all of a sudden Kyler Murray proved quickly that he’s got all of the potential in the world to be something special. The Ravens open up as 13+ point favorites as they head back home.
In 2018 the Cardinals were horrible against the run defensively. They did a pretty nice job against the Lions, though it’s important to note that no one really has feared a Lion’s running game since Barry Sanders hung em’ up. They’re going to have their hands full with both Jackson and Mark Ingram who proved he’s a legitimate workhorse when given the opportunity. It’s also worth noting that missing Patrick Peterson in the secondary lead to some nice days receiving by the Lions. To sum it up… This defense is suspect to say the least. On the other side of the ball Kyler Murray is going to have his work cut out for him against that Raven’s defense. We’re still not sold that this defense is a top unit, but they are certainly solid, particularly at home.
The Ravens you have to think are going to have a similar gameplan offensively featuring Mark Ingram and working the pass around that. Mark Andrews had a great game at tight end and he has a favorable chance to repeat with some nice numbers. If the Ravens can get up early this one could get out of hand. Betting history tells us to take the points in an NFL game that is +12 over more, but over the past 3 seasons the favorites have actually covered at a higher clip so take your best guess with this one.
Yanni’s Pick – Ravens -13 (Ravens 31, Cardinals 16)
JJ’s Pick – Cardinals +13 (Ravens 27, Cardinals 17)
vs. 
DALLAS COWBOYS (1-0) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Dallas Cowboys -6
Over/Under: 46.5
Public Money Percentage: Dallas 64%
The Breakdown:
The NFC East is getting acquainted with each other early this season as Dallas and Washington will play each other Sunday after divisional games in week one. Dallas was dominant against the Giants while Washington got off to a fast start against Philadelphia only to see their defense collapse in the second half. It’s unlikely that the Redskins will be a factor in the playoff race unless they can win games like this at home.
Dak Prescott was fantastic in the opener as he made a clear statement to Jerry Jones that he wants and deserves to get paid. Suddenly this Dallas offense seems really talented as their line is improved, Ezekiel Elliot is paid and happy, Amari Cooper is picking up where he left off, second year man Michael Gallup looks comfortable and Randall Cobb and Jason Witten keep the middle of the field well taken care of. When you look at the Redskins defense, there are some things to like, including the fact that they play really hard. But we saw how they couldn’t keep up with the variety of weapons in the Eagles offense, a problem they’re going to have again with the Cowboys.
For the Redskins, you have to admire the fight they put forth on offense with a lineup that is sorely lacking in playmakers. The Skins’ will dust of Adrian Peterson to start at running back who at least will be fresh coming off a healthy scratch. Rookie Terry McLaurin had a nice debut against the Eagles and Case Keenum started strong. Ultimately they struggled to block and move the ball in the second half. Dallas should be able to keep Peterson in check and shouldn’t have too much trouble on the outside.
Here’s a couple of nuggets you may find interesting on this one:
– The visiting team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 matchups between these teams.
– Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in it’s last 7 road games as a favored team.
Whichever team gets off to the faster start in this game is going to determine how this one goes. If Dallas gets up early, this one is going to get ugly. If Washington can keep this close in the first half like they did against Philly, this game will end up coming down to the wire. We’ll be looking to live bet this one after the first few series or so.
Yanni’s Pick – Cowboys -6 (Cowboys 28, Redskins 18)
JJ’s Pick – Redskins +6 (Cowboys 24, Redskins 20)
vs. 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-1) at TENNESSEE TITANS (1-0)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Tennessee Titans -3
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Tennessee 61%
The Breakdown:
The Titans are coming off of a nice upset against Cleveland and the Colts are on the road again after losing a tough one against the Chargers. These teams know each other well and you can anticipate a game that is has some heavy hitting and a lot of defense. As well as the Titans played a week ago this game may be more telling in terms of who they are as a team. For the Colts, they’re still figuring out how to win with their new starting quarterback.
Tennessee went back to their roots getting Derrick Henry involved early and as has been the case this lead to success. They rode the big guy to a big game and coupled it with an intimidating defense that created some key turnovers. The Colts were gashed on the ground in their opener so you can plan to see some heavy doses of Henry again and that’s going to cause some problems. Marcus Mariota has one job in this game for the Titans, don’t turn the ball over. If the Titans take care of the ball they’ll find their way to a victory.
The Colts nearly came away with an upset of their own as their offense was better than many anticipated. If it weren’t for some important missed kicks by Adam Vinateiri the Colts could be sitting at 1-0. That’s got to be encouraging for the team as Jacoby Brissett looked capable at leading the team and getting weapons like the elusive T.Y.Hilton involved. We mentioned Marlon Mack as a possibly breakout star this year and he sure looked it with some electric runs against the Chargers. Tennessee as they normally are will be tough to run against so Mack will have his work cut out for him.
This spread seems just about right so we will be observers for this one. Take your pick?
Yanni’s Pick – Titans -3 (Titans 24, Colts 20)
JJ’s Pick – Titans -3 (Titans 23, Colts 17)
vs. 
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-0) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 56%
The Breakdown:
Seattle enters week two having won their opener while Pittsburgh was thoroughly dominated by the defending Super Bowl champs. Despite the difference in records both teams have to be very concerned with how their week one games played out. This is a classic match of two teams and quarterbacks who play substantially better on their home fields. Will the return to Heinz Field be the difference in this one?
The Seahawks pulled out the win against the Bengals but they were absolutely torched on defense allowing Andy Dalton to throw for over 400 yards. Offensively it took them some time to get going but as usual Russell Wilson found a way to get it done when it mattered. Although Pittsburgh didn’t play well on Sunday night, their defense matches up very well against Seattle. Chris Carson couldn’t get much going last week and he’ll likely struggle again against this Steeler D.
For the Steelers many felt that their lack of execution was attributed to not having Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell or both on the roster. It’s still a little early to tell, but the Patriots certainly put a blueprint together of locking up Juju Smith-Schuster and forcing Ben Roethlisberger to find other targets, which he did not. Pittsburgh may not be quite as explosive as they’ve been the past few years but they’re going to test that Seattle defense and secondary.
It’s easy to look at this game and think that it’s going to be a defensive match. Call it a hunch but it’s very possible that the Steelers find some rhythm and put some points on the board. The Seahawks are most likely going to struggle to keep up if Pittsburgh gets things going. All that being said, when does Russell Wilson ever get blown out? If you’re looking to get it on this one, think about playing that somewhat enticing over total.
Yanni’s Pick – Steelers -3.5 (Steelers 34, Seahawks 28)
JJ’s Pick – Steelers -3.5 (Steelers 30, Seahawks 23)
vs. 
BUFFALO BILLS (1-0) at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Buffalo Bills -1.5
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: New York 54%
The Breakdown:
The BetCrushers were a little skeptical of all of what we felt was unmerited hype regarding the New York Giants. Dallas came out and worked them over in the opener on both sides of the ball. Buffalo played a tale of two halves as they looked completely inept with 4 turnovers in their first 6 possessions before engineering a pretty remarkable comeback. Teams that lose the turnover battle 0-4 lose 99% of the time… Welcome to the 1%. The Bills will return to the Meadowlands for a second straight week in a game that is and important inter-conference matchup.
The Bills were able to show what they have the potential to do offensively as they worked newcomers John Brown, Cole Beasley and rookie Devin Singletary into key situations. As usual it was their defense that kept them in position to win. This defense will be able to feast on the Giants as long as they can keep Saquon Barkley under control. (Not an easy task). For New York it may sound crazy, but they need a really good game from Eli Manning. Not only to put them in a position to win, but to keep the locals from screaming for rookie Daniel Jones. Defensively the Giants must stop the run and force the Bills to beat them through the air. Cole Beasley has had some big games against the Giants as a member of the Cowboys, and he should shine in this one as well.
Are we being too critical of the New York Giants? Let’s just say that they need to make believers out of us. A home game against the Bills would be a good way to start. The total is appealing to go over again at 44 even with these two offenses. NUGGET: The Giants are only 5-14 straight up in their last 19 home games. Not much homefield advantage here.
Yanni’s Pick – Bills -1.5 (Bills 26, Giants 23)
JJ’s Pick – Giants +1.5 (Bills 21, Giants 20)
vs. 
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (1-0) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Public Money Percentage: Cincinnati 56%
The Breakdown:
Just seven days ago you could have looked at this game on the schedule and been really disinterested in catching any part of it. New head coach Zac Taylor instilled some life in the Who-Dey tribe and San Francisco looked like a legitimate playoff contender after one game. All of a sudden this game looks like one that could end up being looked back upon at the end of the season as a potential critical win for these teams, particularly the 49ers.
San Francisco used a dominating defense in week one to not only create turnovers but turn them into points keying their win in Tampa. They’ll need their defense to come up big again to slow down week one’s leading passer Andy Dalton and the Bengals receivers. (Yes you read that correctly as Dalton went for over 400 and a pair of TDs). The Bengals could be without running back Joe Mixon which would really be a big blow despite veteran Giovani Bernard waiting behind him. Already down A.J. Green, a weakened running game would hurt them in this one. In fact, the way to attack the Niners seems to be on the ground as their pass rush and secondary looked fierce against the Bucs. San Francisco on the other hand already down Jerick McKinnon who was lost before the season, lost Tevin Coleman last week, meaning they’ll be relying on Matt Breida to shoulder the load on the ground. Cincinnati did a nice job holding down Chris Carson and the Seahawks so the 49ers may need a big game through the air. The Bengals have most of the matchup advantages on paper with the exception of one clear area of concern. The 49ers pass rush could feast on the Bengals offensive line. If they are able to create the pressures and turnovers they did in week one they’ll win this game.
If the Bengals can hold up on the O-line, they should be able to pull this one out at home. Those are big “ifs” in what looks like it’ll be another close week two tilt. As far as we’re concerned this is basically a pick’em game so we’ll go ahead and give the home team a slight advantage for the sake of this selection.
Yanni’s Pick – Bengals -1.5 (Bengals 21, 49ers 17)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals -1.5 (Bengals 20, 49ers 17)
vs. 
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-0) at DETROIT LIONS (0-0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: -1.5 Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under: 47.5
Public Money Percentage: Los Angeles 66%
The Breakdown:
A beat up Chargers team coming off a tough win against the Colts heads to Detroit to take on a Lions team coming off a meltdown that resulted in a tie against the Arizona Cardinals. If Los Angeles had a full roster this spread would be a little higher and the Chargers would most likely have themselves a solid road win. Key injuries at multiple positions make this game a lot tighter.
As mentioned the Chargers have to go into Detroit minus their young star DB Derwin James, key OT Russell Okung and now down TE Hunter Henry and possibly WR Mike Williams. We won’t even factor in Melvin Gordon who’s still not with the team simply due to the fact that Austin Ekeler has proven himself a more than capable backup. Philip Rivers seems to find ways to move the ball even without his top weapons so he’ll figure out a way to get things done. Keenan Allen will get a lot of attention in this one so someone else is going to have to step up. Ekeler could be in line for another strong game as the Lions struggled containing David Johnson a week ago. For Detroit’s offense they’ll also need to try to get Kerryon Johnson going to help Matthew Stafford out. His trio of receivers and rookie TE T.J. Hockenson are potentially as solid across the board as any team in the league even if they’re not overly flashy. In order for that to happen though Stafford needs to be able to get through his route tree and find the receiver winning their respective matchup.
With that in mind the thing to watch in this one is whether or not the Lions offensive line can hold up against the Chargers pass rush? The trends go out the window in this one with the injury advantage going to the Lions. Is it enough for them to steal this win at home? It very well could be, but we’ll go ahead and take the overall better team to squeak out a close one.
Yanni’s Pick – Chargers -1.5 (Chargers 23, Lions 21)
JJ’s Pick – Chargers -1.5 (Chargers 24, Lions 20)
vs. 
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-0) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-0)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Green Bay Packers -3
Over/Under: 43.5
Public Money Percentage: Minnesota 57%
The Breakdown:
Even though Green Bay started our opening weekend teaser with a rocking chair win, you have to admit that last Thursday’s game was a bust. Chicago’s run game was nonexistent against the Pack’s defense, Aaron Rodgers was frustrated, and Mitchell Trubisky looked like he spent way too much time in the offseason watching Jared Goff highlights from Super Bowl LIII.
Sunday’s game between Minnesota and Green Bay should be nothing like the season opener. Rodgers will have the rust knocked off and their improved defense should maintain some swagger from their embarrassment of the Bears. On top of all that, Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field is always nasty.
The thing is, Minnesota’s defense is no joke. Although they were almost too aggressive up front last week (three offsides penalties leading to too many first downs), Matt Ryan struggled to find time to make the tough throws and keep the chains moving. While we can’t expect the same level of domination from the Vikings stop unit, they certainly can make it extremely difficult for Rodgers to deliver 20 points. And let’s be honest, given his showings in Tennessee last year, who expects Matt LaFleur to produce a game plan creative enough to outduel Mike Zimmer?
Of course, Green Bay bolstered their defense over the offseason, but we don’t see it rising on this occasion to fully shut down the Vikings’ offense because Minnesota’s offensive line – a major Achilles’ heel last year – is significantly improved. This unit was decimated by injuries in 2018 and played as a hollowed shell of itself. This year, Pat Elfein moves back to his natural position as guard while the newly-drafted Rimmington Trophy winner Garrett Bradley plays center. On the right side, Kline and O’Neill are expected to improve with another year of experience under their belts.
Long-time Vikings coach Kevin Stefanski stepped in as interim OC last year and earned the position for 2019. He was Kirk Cousins’ QB coach in 2018, a season with career highs in pass completion percentage and touchdowns for Cousins. Zimmer’s shift to a run-first approach is predicated on their upgraded O-line and the return of Dalvin Cook to the backfield. We would like to see Minnesota test the center of the line more this week and catch the Packers on some “gotcha” play action for chunk plays. Expect a tense game where a late score will determine the winner, cash the Minnesota +3 tickets, and extend their September ATS run to 10-3-1.
Yanni’s Pick – Vikings +3 (Packers 24, Vikings 23)
JJ’s Pick – Vikings +3 (Vikings 21, Packers 20)
vs. 
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-1) at HOUSTON TEXANS (0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: Houston Texans -8.5
Over/Under: 43
Public Money Percentage: Houston 52%
The Breakdown:
Houston lost a heartbreaker in their opener and return home to face their divisonal foe the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags lost their prize free agent Nick Foles in the first quarter making for a total potential shift of their season. They’ll revamp their offense with rookie sixth round draft pick, the “eclectic” Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Minshew was impressive coming in for Foles, however it’s important to know they were playing catch up against a pretty soft zone defense. Houston can’t afford an 0-2 start, while Jacksonville is re-evaluating what this season is going to look like for them.
Going into Houston is not a cushy assignment for a rookie quarterback so we’ll see pretty quickly what kind of maturity and understanding Minshew has. The Jaguars somehow need to figure out if they can get Leonard Fournette and the power running game moving. It’s been well over a year since Fournette has topped 100 yards rushing. The Texans are vulnerable to the run and with a rookie at quarterback you can bet that Fournette will have every opportunity to get his touches. Assuming Minshew can at least not completely blow the game with turnovers, the real matchup is going the other way as the Jags defense will look to slow down Houston’s offense. There was a lot of talk in Jacksonville about getting their swagger back on defense but it sure didn’t happen in week one. They were shredded with big plays and in the run game. It’s not really fair to grade them on that performance though as the Chiefs make everyone look sketchy and defensive leader Myles Jack was ejected early on. The Jags have had some nice defensive efforts against Houston and the familiarity should help them.
It’s always risky putting your faith in a relatively unknown rookie quarterback in this league. This Jaguars team will rally around Minshew and the defense will keep them in it. The Texans won’t lose this game at home, but Jacksonville should be able to keep it within striking distance.
Yanni’s Pick – Jaguars +8.5 (Texans 27, Jaguars 20)
JJ’s Pick – Jaguars +8.5 (Texans 26, Jaguars 20)
vs. 
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-0) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 1:00pm
Spread: New England Patriots -19
Over/Under: 49
Public Money Percentage: New England 60%
The Breakdown:
On opening weekend arguably the most impressive team was the New England Patriots, while the most inept was clearly the Miami Dolphins. Pairing these two up in week two sets up a 19 point spread which is the largest since 2011. You can never say never in an NFL game, or can you? Let’s just say this analysis is going to be really brief.
The Patriots were beyond impressive in their domination of the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Tom Brady was his usual self owning Pittsburgh and the Patriots defense looked as good as any in the league, minus one of their best players in Kyle Van Noy. Normally when Brady and New England travel to Miami it’s a golden opportunity to bet against them as it’s been a house of horrors for them over the years. In fact they’ve lost five of their last six trips to Miami which is crazy when you think of their overall domination. That being said, these ain’t the 1972 Dolphins, or even the 2018 Dolphins. The biggest watch in this game will be to see what kind of role or impact Antonio Brown might have in this one. For Miami, it’s not even just a lack of talent on the roster that makes them a huge underdog, it’s the fact that management and new head coach Brian Flores lost this team before the season started. With reports of players asking for trades and displeasure with Flores and the organization, it’s a mystery if the Dolphins players will even get a full sprint in for this one or any other game this season.
The old rule in the NFL used to be if you were getting more than 12 points you take the points no matter what. That hasn’t come to fruition as much over the previous three seasons as favorites have actually blown teams out. If it weren’t for the dysfunction of the Dolphins organization, this would be a clear take the points situation. However, when you combine the dumpster fire that they currently are with the complete mismatch on paper and this one is most likely going to get really ugly.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -19 (Patriots 39, Dolphins 14)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -19 (Patriots 34, Dolphins 13)
vs. 
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-0) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-0)
Sunday – September 15th – 4:05pm
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -7
Over/Under: 53.5
Public Money Percentage: Kansas City 58%
The Breakdown:
Kansas City will face an Oakland team that played about as well as a team could play on opening night. Any thoughts of Antonio Brown causing issues was put to rest early. Josh Jacobs had a stellar debut and the Oakland defense brought the heat. Let’s give Raiders GM Mike Mayock some credit for what looks like a great draft pick nabbing Clelin Ferrell as an edge rusher. The Raiders have something going with their youngsters. Oh and how about that performance by Derek Carr? Carr was throwing perfect passes all night and was fantastic on 3rd down. Kansas City on the other hand easily won a bizarre game in Jacksonville that saw Nick Foles knocked out early, fights and ejections, and unfortunately for them their superstar Tyreek Hill sidelined with an injury that appears will have him out for several weeks. What had to be somewhat concerning was the lack of pass rush that the Chiefs were able to generate allowing a rookie QB to put up some pretty solid numbers.
It’s hard to know if the Oakland team we watched Monday will be able to bring that kind of discipline and play throughout the season. What we do know is Kansas City can score pretty much every time they have the ball. The injury to Tyreek Hill is a little concerning, but there is no shortage of weapons even with Hill on the shelf. The Chiefs absolutely need new addition Frank Clark and the defense to play better to make sure they come away with a win in this one. If you’re not into teasers, you may want to consider the over for this one as it’s hard to picture either team having too much trouble putting points up. Look for Travis Kelce to have a big day and expect the Chiefs to win in a typical shoot out for them.
Yanni’s Pick – Chiefs -7 (Chiefs 37, Raiders 26)
JJ’s Pick – Chiefs -7 (Chiefs 31, Raiders 21)
vs. 
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (1-0) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (1-0)
Sunday – September 15th – 4:25pm
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -1.5
Over/Under: 52
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 58%
The Breakdown:
Here’s to hoping that the over/under of times that we hear about the blown call in the NFC Championship game is less than 5 as these teams face off on Sunday afternoon. The Saints handled that a lot better than we would have and really seem to have moved on about as well as they can. The Rams will be anxious to prove that they can take care of business without the help of the zebras in what looks like another really fun one on paper.
The Saints come in riding the high of that thrilling finish and win on Monday night via the leg of kicker Will Lutz. New Orleans was pretty solid as you’d expect offensively and Drew Brees carved things up like a surgeon when he needed to. Houston has some firepower on offense, but you’ve got to think the Saints have to be a little concerned with how their defense played at home. We know what the Saints are going to give us on offense, it’s their D that is going to determine if they can get to the Super Bowl. How does that defense stack up in this one? That’s most likely going to be determined by how Jared Goff plays. He was very average in week one although he did enough to win the game so we’ll give him credit there. The biggest thing to watch in this one is if Sean McVay gives Todd Gurley a full workload or if goes with the two back approach again using Malcolm Brown. No disrespect to Brown who’s played solidly when given the opportunity but Gurley is the difference between this being a good offense and a great offense. The Rams need to try to establish the line of scrimmage early which will open things up for their speedy receivers. The Saints actually match up well in the secondary so the role that Gurley plays in this game can’t be understated. Flipping to the other side Alvin Kamara should have a big game here if they can get him in space.
Yet again, a low spread let’s us know that this is anyone’s game to win. The Rams have surprisingly had a nice advantage at home and the Saints generally are a step behind on the road away from their dome. We’re not certain who’s winning this game but we have it in play with the Saints as a teaser grabbing it early to get 8.5 points.
Yanni’s Pick – Rams -1.5 (Rams 27, Saints 24)
JJ’s Pick – Saints +1.5 (Saints 31, Rams 28)
vs. 
CHICAGO BEARS (0-1) at DENVER BRONCOS (0-1)
Sunday – September 15th – 4:25pm
Spread: Chicago Bears -2.5
Over/Under: 40
Public Money Percentage: Chicago 65%
The Breakdown:
Two teams that really left week one disappointed are matched up here as the Bears travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in what figures to be a defensive battle. Chicago struggled offensively against an improved Green Bay defense while Denver was unable to get much going on either side of the ball against a fired up Oakland team. Former Bear’s defensive coordinator and new Bronco’s head coach Vic Fangio knows how to attack his old team, the question is does he have enough talent to make it happen?
There are three unknowns in this game and two givens to look at. What we do know is the Bear’s defense is going to bring it and play well, because well, they always do. We also know that Denver is a much better team at home and the crowd will be fired up. What we can’t know for sure is how the Bear’s offense is going to perform or how Denver will play on offense or defense? There are some really mind-boggling statistics regarding the Bronco’s playing at home after a loss and how well they tend to win and cover. So what does this puzzle mean when you put it all together? We certainly don’t know… Even though our model of handicapping is predicated on history and numbers, and we prefer to follow “sharp” bettors versus the public, (sharp bettors are on Denver) we’re going to play this game based on the eyeball test.
Denver looked really really bad in the opener. Joe Flacco was inaccurate and their offensive line struggled with run blocking and pass protection against what you’d think is a pretty average Oakland defense. Their defense was pushed around up front making their star pass rushers as much of a non-factor as we’ve really ever seen. Fangio will work on ways to make Von Miller and Bradley Chubb more involved and disruptive but will that be enough? If you caught our season preview article, the breakdown we had on Denver proved itself completely in week one. They are a team with five or six really good players (Miller, Chubb, Harris Jr., Sanders, Lindsay, Sutton) but are far below average in a lot of the key spots including the line play. You think of their defense as strong due to those three superstars, however sometimes 11 average players might be better than 3 elite players and 8 not very good players.
We won’t even talk about the Bear’s defense as we’ll assume they’ll do a reasonable job holding Denver down, so let’s talk about some offense. Mitch Trubisky absolutely needs to step up and play better if this team is going anywhere to or in the postseason. The Bear’s went full running back by committee with three backs, when you have to wonder if giving their electric player Tarik Cohen a little more work might be a better plan? One thing Bear’s fans should be excited about was the play of Allen Robinson. He looked like a legitimate number one receiver in the opener and they’re going to need that if this offense is going to get going. A huge thing to watch in this one is if Trey Burton can return at tight end. Denver has struggled for years and did again in week one defending athletic tight ends. If Burton can return he could potentially be in for a big day.
We had a pretty easy “square bet” win a week ago in this spot so we’re going to give it a shot again. All of the numbers/trends point to Denver winning this game including the fact that Sharp money is coming in on the Broncos. The bottom line is one of these teams will be 1-1 after this game and the other will be 0-2. Give us that Chicago team as the one not to start 0-2. Consider this an onside kick in the Super Bowl moment… If we cover we’ll look like geniuses, if we don’t we’ll look back and call ourselves idiots.
Yanni’s Pick – Bears -2.5 (Bears 20, Broncos 14)
JJ’s Pick – Broncos +2.5 (Broncos 17, Bears 16)
vs. 
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-0) at ATLANTA FALCONS (0-1)
Monday – September 15th – 8:20pm
Spread: Eagles -2
Over/Under: 52.5
Public Money Percentage: Philadelphia 59%
The Breakdown:
The Eagles and Falcons combined to play some terrible first half football in their openers. The obvious difference which lead to the difference in a win and a loss was Philadelphia played a great second half, while Atlanta was never really able to get things going outside of some garbage time. The Falcons will be looking to get on track in their friendly home confines against an Eagle team that has a lot of similarities to them.
We’re going to assume that the Eagles slow start last week was just due to lack of practice during the preseason and that what we saw in the latter stages of the game is who they really are. They’ll likely try to get their running game going early after seeing what the Vikings were able to do against another soft Falcons front seven. Don’t expect a complete ground and pound game though as the big difference in this game is Atlanta will be putting up some points this time around. Carson Wentz will need to get his plethora of weapons involved throughout this one to keep pace or stay ahead. For the Falcons this has to be a bounce-back game for their leader Matt Ryan and his newly paid favorite target Julio Jones. As with the Eagles, look for Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith to get running early but for the Falcons to win they’re going to have to get the ball deep. Both of these secondary units are outclassed by the other team’s skill positions. Zach Ertz and Austin Hooper could see a lot of targets but it’s the guys on the outside that are going to make the splash plays.
Another close spread as it’s been hovering around 1 and 2 points in favor of the Eagles. It’s generally suicide to pick against at Atlanta at home, but this Philadelphia team is a legitimate contender. We’ll be shocked if someone wins this one by more than a field goal. There are going to be a lot of points in this one. If you follow us you’ll note we locked in this over at 51. It’s currently sitting around 52.5 and climbing. This over is one of our favorite plays of the week so hopefully we’ll be watching an exciting Sunday night game with a lot of fireworks.
Yanni’s Pick – Falcons +2 (Eagles 31, Falcons 30)
JJ’s Pick – Eagles -2 (Eagles 28, Falcons 25)
vs. 
CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-1) at NEW YORK JETS (0-1)
Monday – September 16th – 8:15pm
Spread: Cleveland Browns -7
Over/Under: 44
Public Money Percentage: Cleveland 63%
The Breakdown:
The line for this one opened up with the Cleveland Browns as 2.5 point favorites in what was expected to be a really tight game. Then Thursday rolled around and it was announced that second year starting QB Sam Darnold will be out with a case of high school mononucleosis. The Jets will turn to Trevor Siemian in hopes of salvaging the first part of their season which pushed this spread although to Cleveland -7.
Cleveland had to be one of the most disappointing teams after week one. This team was talking a big game and got absolutely punched in the mouth in their home stadium by a blue collar Titan’s squad. They enter week 2 needing to play better on offense, which won’t be easy against a tough Jet’s defense. The availability of C.J. Mosley for New York is one of the most paramount injuries in week two. With Mosley in the lineup the Jet’s defense looked amazing, when he left they suddenly became very average. Playing against a Brown’s team with a lot of options offensively if Mosley can’t go, it’s going to be a long night for Gang Green. On offense, Trevor Siemian has his work cut out for him. On the plus side it looks like he’ll have Le’Veon Bell who was initially a question mark earlier in the week. Jamison Crowder proved a great addition catching 12 passes in the slot so with Robby Anderson he’ll have options. The biggest challenge will be seeing if he will be able to make the reads fast enough with Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon putting pressure on him.
It’s a shame Darnold won’t be available because this would have been a good game. Teams usually rally around a backup quarterback at home so you can expect the Jets to bring their A-game in an effort to avoid the 0-2 start at home. It’s just tough to imagine Siemian being able to do enough to get the Jets a win. We’re not playing this one ATS but we’re going to take the key number of 7, more due to the number than anything. If C.J. Mosley is ruled out, it’s very possible the play moves to Cleveland. NUGGET: The Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a loss.
