After Thursday’s 3-0 rebound, I was initially disappointed to come away without a ticket on yesterday’s short NCAAB slate. Carrying some “momentum” into the weekend never hurts, but if the handicapping doesn’t give me a viable place to put my money, then the bankroll sits on the sidelines. It was nice not having to sweat any games last night but the break is over and it’s time for the Road Dog Report for 12/21/2019.
Recapping the 12/19 Action
The Citadel (+4) was first to fire on Thursday, staying tight with Longwood until pulling away with five minutes to go. Then the bane of all underdog bettors happened: overtime. Might as well get your money’s worth and make it three overtimes of sweat, right? This actually was a good game to watch from the second half through the OTs. After 55 minutes of play, the Road Dog prevailed and handed the Lancers their first home loss of the season. The Citadel moves to a respectable 4-1 ATS on the road.
Appalachian State (+4) supported my statement that they are “a much improved team under second-year coach Dustin Kerns” with a convincing 81-71 win at South Alabama to open Sun Belt conference play. Their solid defense did what we said they needed to do, and that was keep USA below their lofty scoring average around 77 points per game. The Justin Forrest-Isaac Johnson combo was in full effect Thursday night with Forrest putting up 32 points with 6 assists, and Johnson scoring 16 points and grabbing 10 boards.
My most anticipated play of the night, Montana State (+4) at Cal State Bakersfield, was a nail biter from start to finish. The Road Dog had a 2-point halftime lead that slipped away into an eventual 72-74 loss to the Roadrunners. The Bobcats turned the ball over 16 times again like they did Monday night, with the major difference being that they turned Bakersfield over 15 times to counteract these miscues. CSB’s bench did the heavy lifting as expected, but it was Harald Frey for the Bobcats who kept them in the game and delivered the cover. Enough living in the past…let’s dig into an action-packed Road Dog Report for 12/21/2019!
(663) Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama -5
The 7-5 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers visit Mobile to take on the 6-5 South Alabama Jaguars. Coastal comes in off of an embarrassing loss at Troy as 4.5-point favorites, looking to right the ship. They’re led by a trio of guards, notably Devante Jones who orchestrates a potent offense averaging 82.1 PPG. Senior forward Tommy Burton gives them some good size down low to balance this guard-heavy attack.
We scored a solid victory with Appalachian State on Thursday against this South Alabama team that has been tough at home this year. They dropped only their second game at home to the tough Mountaineer defenders. I expect Coastal Carolina to rely less on getting stops and more on trying to outrun the Jaguars. The Chanticleers are a good shooting team that can be deadly from beyond the arc, although they don’t rely on the deep shot heavily. My core ratings give an overall edge to Coastal and I don’t handicap any overwhelming mismatches from South Alabama.
On the Money
This is only the second time Coastal Carolina has played the role of Road Dog this season, scoring a 4-point win as a +6 at Winthrop. Their other two games as dogs at home were split ATS (and straight up, for that matter). South Alabama just fell to 1-4 ATS at home and faces a tough one today laying 5. The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS as favorites, helping to make this +5 with Coastal a clear take.
(667) Illinois State @ Texas San Antonio
Despite taking a loss with the 5-6 Illinois State Redbirds last Sunday, I view them as a viable play in today’s game at 4-7 UTSA. The Redbirds got buried by Northern Kentucky’s shooting and simply could not keep up with it. They snuck by Illinois-Chicago on Wednesday and failed to cover as a 6-point favorite.
The Roadrunners counter with a pair of junior guards in Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace who are effectively half of UTSA’s offense. These guys are damn good. They score, hit from downtown, and make their free throws. Illinois State has done a poor job of capitalizing at the charity stripe, which can make a significant difference when the game enters the final minutes.
Illinois State must minimize the damage done by Jackson and Wallace, considering there is nobody else on the UTSA roster that should scare Coach Dan Muller. My ratings hold a healthy differential of six points between these squads, so getting points here is a bonus. If there is any hesitation, it would be the recent “slump buster” by NKU’s Tyler Sharpe against the Redbirds.
On the Money
The Redbirds’ 2-3 mark ATS away from home is nothing to hang their hats on. UTSA has covered two of their last three after missing on their first six. Their 22-point win as an 8-point home favorite against Texas A&M Corpus Christi appears to be an anomaly, although that opponent is significantly worse than the Redbirds. Illinois State is a live dog if they can counter punch against the UTSA guard duo, so give me the +3.5.
(679) Eastern Washington @ Gonzaga -20
Just ask any other team in the WCC about how Gonzaga is perennially on a completely different level. 7-3 Eastern Washington may share this half of the state with 12-1 Gonzaga, but the Bulldogs own the court in in PNW. EWU’s potent offense will be put to the test this afternoon against one of the best teams in the nation.
Gonzaga is stacked from top to bottom and presents good size with Filip Petrusev and Killian Tille. They’re even deeper with bigs and have guards that move the ball well. This isn’t about the Eagles beating the Zags as much as it is about them hanging with them in the first half. Forwards Mason Peatling and Tanner Groves give up some size to the Bulldogs’ big men, but I expect guards Jacob Davison and Kim Aiken to put some pressure on the juggernaut. Aiken needs to be the X-factor to keep them inside the number when the clock hits zero. If there’s any weakness for Gonzaga, it’s their poor 65.2% free throw shooting that can leave the back door open for EWU.
On the Money
Eastern Washington has been a cash cow for their backers this season at 7-1 ATS. They’ve played the role of Road Dog four times and cashed in three of them. A reasonable comp is their +15.5 at Washington, where they covered in an 80-90 loss. I rate Gonzaga about 8 points better than UW, making today’s +20 a little short in this comparison. The Zags’ 7-5-1 ATS is solid but reflects their mixed results when laying big numbers. EWU should challenge Gonzaga and stay close to the number late in the game, potentially catching a break from the Bulldogs’ subpar FT shooting.
(685) Murray State @ Evansville Pk
6-4 Murray State heads north to square up against the 8-4 Evansville Purple Aces, who got us to the window last Saturday. The Racers are a team that values high-percentage shots over 3-point shooting, supported by a strong defense. 6’9″ forward KJ Williams will be called on to slow down Evansville’s star 6’9″ forward, Deandre Williams.
Evansville is fresh off of a puzzling beatdown by 3-7 Jacksonville State where Deandre fouled out with only 6 points. I have to throw this game out the window as one of those head scratchers. The Aces are a team that wants to shoot the three and get it into Williams to bang down low and make his free throws. The Racers’ defense will certainly be tested tonight, but I rate them about seven points better than Evansville.
On the Money
Neither team has been overly successful ATS this season. Murray State comes in with a 4-5 mark against the number, with Evansville being 5-6 ATS. The Racers have enjoyed more success at home, as demonstrated by a 1-4 ATS mark away from Murray. That said, Evansville has struggled to cover as a favorite this season. They covered as a 4-point favorite against a below-average Miami of Ohio team after dropping their previous four games when laying points. But we have a pick ’em game today and this simply comes down to who can get the W. I’ll trust my ratings here and go with Murray State on the road.
(669) Idaho @ South Dakota State -14
4-6 Idaho faces a tough task against the 8-6 South Dakota State Jackrabbits this afternoon. The Vandals have been an underdog in every game this season, as opposed to the Jackrabbits who have been a favorite in all of their home games. Idaho relies heavily on senior guard Trevon Allen, who is joined by surprising freshman guard BJ Simmons in the backcourt. 6’9″ forward Scott Blakney gives them a presence in the middle, but this Idaho team is lacking in size.
South Dakota State has a productive freshman of their own in 6’7″ forward Doug Wilson. The Jackrabbits are a young team with size and a strong presence on the boards. Their weak spot is a product of this inexperience, as they have been foul-prone and turn the ball over at a high rate. It is questionable whether Idaho is a team that can take advantage of these weaknesses with their sluggish offense.
On the Money
The Vandals are 3-2 ATS away from home and 5-3 ATS overall. As noted above, they been dogs in every game this season and covered their last two after missing the previous three. South Dakota State is a stellar 8-4 ATS and has covered four of five as favorites at home. From a market perspective, I think that Idaho is getting a point or two too many points. This is a slim margin, making Idaho +14 a wager NOT for the faint of heart.
Extra Games on the Road Dog Report for 12/21/2019
(1525) Bryant @ Dartmouth -5.5
Coach Jared Grasso brings a much-improved 7-4 Bryant team to 7-5 Dartmouth for a big out-of-conference game. Bryant is a small team that plays tough defense and can turn their opponents over. Their main weakness is taking a lot of three-point shots and not making a ton (31.3%). Dartmouth has a size advantage but runs a clunky offense that generates easy, high-percentage shots.
Bryant is 2-1 ATS in the Road Dog spot, including an outright win as a 4.5-point dog at Fordham last game out on the 10th. Dartmouth is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite, but has been on the road most of December. My ratings and the teams’ ATS performances tell me that +5.5 is enough points for this early game today.
(1529) Marist @ Bethune-Cookman -7
When it comes to scoring, don’t look for 1-7 Marist to light up the scoreboard against the 5-7 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats today. The Marist Red Foxes play solid defense and a rather boring style of game. Bethune-Cookman has a senior inside-outside duo of Isiah Bailey and Cletrell Pope who lead this Wildcat team in many facets.
The Wildcats find themselves in the unusual position as favorites, which they have been 1-1 ATS prior to today. Marist, on the other hand, has covered in three of four as a Road Dog. These covers include an outright win at VMI to start the season and two other covers this month. This is a tight squeeze according to my core ratings, but Marist’s track record in this position ATS pushes me onto the Road Dog at +7.
(1539) Stony Brook @ American Pk
The 7-6 Stony Brook Seawolves have dropped three straight going into today’s matchup against the 4-5 American Eagles. The positive takeaway for Stony Brook is that they still managed to cover two of those losses against Virginia and Providence. American is 2-1 SU at home, riding very good three-point shooting and ball control to those victories. This is another tight game according to my ratings but give the edge to the Seawolves and their good rebounding.
(1579) Nicholls State @ Abilene Christian -1.5
Southland Conference play is underway as the 7-5 Nicholls State Colonels and 6-5 Abilene Christian Wildcats go for a second conference win tonight. Nicholls State brings a starting lineup with four upperclassmen who have been quite good on the offensive end, despite a middling deep shot percentage. Abilene Christian has size with 7’0″ center Kolton Kohl, who could give the Colonels some trouble. The Wildcats are not one-dimensional, but their size could dictate Nicholls State’s shot selection.
Abilene Christian has been a favorite only once this season. They took care of business at home against a poor Southeast Missouri State squad as a 5-point favorite. That said, I rate SEMO about 10 points worse than Nicholls State, who is 4-1 ATS as a Road Dog. In fact, they are battle tested against greater competition in this role. The’ve covered against Illinois, LSU, Pittsburgh, and Rhode Island. This is essentially a pick ’em game that I give a solid edge to Nicholls State, so give me the +1.5.
Road Dog Report for 12/21/2019 – Final Card
- (663) Coastal Carolina +5
- (667) Illinois State +3.5
- (679) Eastern Washington +20
- (685) Murray State Pk
- (699) Idaho +14
- (1525) Bryant +5.5
- (1529) Marist +7
- (1539) Stony Brook Pk
- (1579) Nicholls State +1.5
As always, you can follow us on Twitter or subscribe for email alerts whenever new handicapping articles are posted. We appreciate you taking the time to check us out!
